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From page 139... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-1 June 2005 Appendix B: Hypothesis Testing for Project Selection The selection criteria for the case study projects are availability of data and willingness of project contacts to support the research, ability of a project to support or refute the hypotheses developed, geographic location of projects, modal characteristics, procurement type, and project setting. This makes project selection a multi-criteria decision-making problem. Read the entire page →
From page 140... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-2 June 2005 results similar to those of more complex MA methods. Projects that score higher on a hypothesis are more qualified to test that hypothesis. Read the entire page →
From page 141... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-3 June 2005 Table B-1. Hypothesis Factors and Their Weights Hypotheses and Factors Affecting Them Max Score Hypothesis 1: Project costs are minimized at the planning phase to maximize the probability of approval. Read the entire page →
From page 142... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-4 June 2005 Hypothesis 1 - Project costs are minimized at the planning phase to maximize the probability of approval. The factors that are relevant to this hypothesis play a role during the planning phase, prior to approval by the FTA and/or any other funding source. Read the entire page →
From page 143... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-5 June 2005 C - Contingency (medium relevance to the hypothesis) Contingency is a reserve amount added to the estimated or budgeted project cost for anticipated or possible cost growth due to minor project uncertainties for which costs cannot be determined but are likely to occur (Schexnayder, Weber, and Fiori 2003) Read the entire page →
From page 144... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-6 June 2005 E - Basis of estimation (low relevance to the hypothesis) The basis of estimation refers to the type of technique used for estimating, the assumptions made, and the elements that are included or excluded from the estimate. Read the entire page →
From page 145... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-7 June 2005 B – Contingencies (high relevance to the hypothesis) See Factor C in Hypothesis 1 for explanation. Read the entire page →
From page 146... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-8 June 2005 community betterments, and the San Francisco Airport extension was redesigned because of community concerns about the environmental impact of the project. Political issues relating to this hypothesis include the politician's demands in executing the project such as realignment or other changes that add to the cost of the project. Read the entire page →
From page 147... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-9 June 2005 phase (e.g., PE) because of lack of sufficient detail on some components (e.g., finishes) Read the entire page →
From page 148... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-10 June 2005 C - Construction market condition (high relevance to the hypothesis) This factor refers to the economic condition of the construction industry during bidding (competition in bidding the project) Read the entire page →
From page 149... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-11 June 2005 B - Extent of tunnel work (high relevance to the hypothesis) The extent of tunnel work adds a significant uncertainty to transit projects, especially when the tunnel runs under a developed or urban area such as the case in the Boston Silver Line Busway and the San Juan Tren Urbano. Read the entire page →
From page 150... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-12 June 2005 G - Elevated structures/guideway (low relevance to the hypothesis) Elevated structures or guideway add to the complexity of projects somewhat similar to tunnels and underground stations. Read the entire page →
From page 151... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-13 June 2005 parts of the country; projects that were executed under the DBB, DB, and DBOM procurement methods; and projects for busway, light rail, and heavy rail. The 3rd level of Figure B-1 illustrates the selection process for the suggested case study projects. Read the entire page →
From page 152... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-14 June 2005 Table B-2. Ranking of Projects for Each Hypothesis Rank by Hypothesis S/N Description Year Completed 1 2 3A 3B 4 5 Weight of Rank -- > 16.67% each 1 San Juan Tren Urbano 2004 7 1 5 4 1 4 2 San Francisco BART Airport Extension 2003 1 9 3 11 1 2 3 Boston – Old Colony Commuter Rail 1997 2 4 5 1 4 12 4 Hiawatha Corridor 2004 2 6 3 15 3 6 5 Seattle – Busway Tunnel 1990 11 10 12 4 6 3 6 San Diego Mission Valley East 2005 10 7 7 4 15 7 7 Hudson-Bergen MOS-I 2001 2 2 10 11 9 16 8 Portland Westside/Hillsboro MAX 1998 8 8 2 20 7 9 9 Boston – Silver Line Busway 2004 23 23 11 8 9 4 10 Sacramento RT Metro (Stage I) Read the entire page →
From page 153... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-15 June 2005 Table B-3. Composite Score of Projects for All Six Hypotheses S/N Description Year Completed Average Rank Composite Rank Score Completion % Weight of Rank -- > 0.00% 100% 1 San Juan Tren Urbano 2004 3.67 2 85% 2 San Francisco BART Airport Extension 2003 4.50 3 89% 3 Boston – Old Colony Commuter Rail 1997 4.67 4 93% 4 Hiawatha Corridor 2004 5.83 5 89% 5 Seattle – Busway Tunnel 1990 7.67 6 96% 6 San Diego Mission Valley East 2005 8.33 7 67% 7 Hudson-Bergen MOS-I 2001 8.33 7 81% 8 Portland Westside/Hillsboro MAX 1998 9.00 9 74% 9 Boston – Silver Line Busway 2004 13.00 12 59% 10 Sacramento RT Metro (Stage I) Read the entire page →
From page 154... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-16 June 2005 Table B-4. Characteristics of Projects Selected for Case Studies Geographic Location Project Type/Mode Procurement Approach Project Setting Rank Description E as t C en tr al W es t O th er B us w ay Li gh t R ai l H ea vy ra il D -B -B D -B D B O M N ew St ar t R eh ab ili ta tio n 1 Los Angeles – Red Line √ √ √ √ 2 San Juan Tren Urbano √ √ √ √ 3 San Francisco Bart Airport Extension √ √ √ √ 4 Boston Old Colony Commuter Rail √ √ √ √ 5 Hiawatha Corridor √ √ √ √ 6 Seattle Busway Tunnel √ √ √ √ 7 Hudson-Bergen MOS-I √ √ √ √ 9 Portland Westside/Hillsboro MAX √ √ √ √ 23 Sacramento South Corridor Phase I √ √ √ √ 24 Salt Lake North South Corridor √ √ √ √ Total for 10 projects 2 1 6 1 1 5 4 5 3 2 9 1 Read the entire page →
From page 155... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-17 June 2005 Figure B-1. The Hierarchy in Selecting Projects for Case Studies Select Projects for Case Studies Low Moderate High Data Availability East Central West Other Geographic Location 29 Projects/Alternatives DBB DB DBOM Procurement Type Construction Site Greenfield/ Rural Brownfield/ Urban Project Nature New Start Rehabilitation Project Setting Busway Light Rail Heavy/ Commuter Rail Modal Characteristics Fitness for Testing Hypothesis (See Figure B-2) Read the entire page →
From page 156... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-18 June 2005 Figure B-2. Hierarchy of Hypothesis Factors (See Table B-1 for Hypotheses) Read the entire page →
From page 157... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-19 June 2005 Figure B-3. Hypothesis 1 Scoring System Hypothesis 1: Project costs are minimized at the planning phase to maximize the probability of approval x < 3% 3% < x < 10% 10% < x < 20% x > 20% Hypothesis 1 29 Projects/Alternatives Political Issues Low Moderate High Contingencies Sufficient Not so low Low Scope Definition Well defined Moderate Not well defined Basis of Estimation Reasonable Fairly reasonable Unreasonable Δ Cost AA/DEIS and Bid/FD Read the entire page →
From page 158... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-20 June 2005 Figure B-4. Hypothesis 2 Scoring System Hypothesis 2: Project costs are increased at the preliminary engineering stage to account for: a. Read the entire page →
From page 159... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-21 June 2005 Figure B-5. Hypothesis 3A Scoring System Hypothesis 3A: Project costs are increased at the final design and construction stages due to: the incremental project modifications to improve and enhance the project definition (scope creep) Read the entire page →
From page 160... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-22 June 2005 Figure B-6. Hypothesis 3B Scoring System Hypothesis 3B: Project costs are increased at the final design and construction stages due to the addition of elements that are often excluded from the prior cost estimates due to causes ranging from simple omission to the underestimation of some project components Reasonable Fairly reasonable Unreasonable X < 3% 3% < X < 10% 10% < X < 20% x > 20% Hypothesis 3B Basis of Estimation Δ Cost FEIS/PE/FFGA & Actual Costs 29 Projects/Alternatives Read the entire page →
From page 161... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-23 June 2005 Figure B-7. Hypothesis 4 Scoring System Hypothesis 4: Project costs are increased at the start of construction to account for the inflationary affects of project schedule delays during all of the project development phases leading up to construction. Read the entire page →
From page 162... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-24 June 2005 Figure B-8. Hypothesis 5 Scoring System Hypothesis 5: Project with high degree of complexities experience cost escalation Hypothesis 5 29 Projects/Alternatives Unforeseen Conditions/ Hazardous Materials Low Moderate High Contingencies Sufficient Not so low Low Utilities Relocation Low Moderate High/Problematic Underground/ Complex Stations None Few Many/ Complex Tunnel work None Small Extensive Elevated Structures/ Guideway None Limited Extensive Read the entire page →
From page 163... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-25 Figure B-9. Sample Project Score Sheet Boston Old Colony Commuter Rail Project Completed 1997 Max score Project Score Notes PROJECT TOTAL 142 82 as 100% 100 57.7 Hypothesis 1 22 16 73% Factor A 6 6 The cost difference between DEIS and FD is +23% B 6 2 Public demands and the lengthy project phases may have prompted political issues. Read the entire page →
From page 164... ... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-26 INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Read the entire page →

From page 139...

... TCRP Project G-07 -- Managing Capital Costs of Final Report Major Federally Funded Public Transportation B: Hypothesis Testing For Project Selection B-1 June 2005 Appendix B: Hypothesis Testing for Project Selection The selection criteria for the case study projects are availability of data and willingness of project contacts to support the research, ability of a project to support or refute the hypotheses developed, geographic location of projects, modal characteristics, procurement type, and project setting. This makes project selection a multi-criteria decision-making problem.