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From page 4... ... i CONTENTS ABSTRACT...........................................................................................................................................ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ......................................................................................................................x METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING CHANNEL MIGRATION..............................................1 SUMMARY..............................................................................................................................1 CHAPTER 1 Introduction and Research Approach .......................................................................4 PROBLEM STATEMENT AND RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ...............................................4 SCOPE OF RESEARCH ..........................................................................................................5 RESEARCH APPROACH .......................................................................................................6 Task 1 – Literature Review...............................................................................................8 Task 2 – Document Case Histories ...................................................................................9 Task 3 – Assemble and Evaluate Existing Data................................................................9 Task 4 – First Interim Report............................................................................................9 Task 5 – Acquire Data and Develop Methodologies ........................................................9 Task 6 – Test and Evaluate Methodology.........................................................................9 Task 7 – Second Interim Report .......................................................................................9 Task 8 – State Evaluation .................................................................................................9 Task 9 – Compile and Archive Data Base ........................................................................9 Task 10 – Prepare an Aerial Photo Comparison Handbook .............................................9 Task 11 – Submit Final Report .......................................................................................10 CHAPTER 2 Findings ......................................................................................................................11 LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................................11 Introduction.....................................................................................................................11 Fundamental Aspects of Meandering .............................................................................11 Flow Patterns, Velocity Distributions, and Boundary Shear Stress Distribution at Bends ......................................................................................................12 Numerical Models of Flow and Sediment Processes at Bends .......................................15 Meander Planform Characteristics..................................................................................16 Historical and Monitoring Studies of Meandering Rivers ..............................................22 Factors Affecting Rates of Meander Change ..................................................................25 Discharge...............................................................................................................26 Mobility of Bed Material........................................................................................26 Sediment Supply .....................................................................................................27 Erodibility of Bank Materials ................................................................................27 Bank Geotechnics...................................................................................................28 Riparian Vegetation and Land-Use .......................................................................29 Basal Cleanout.......................................................................................................30 Human Intervention ...............................................................................................30 Overview ................................................................................................................31 Read the entire page →
From page 5... ... ii Styles of Meander Change ..............................................................................................34 Conceptual and Empirical Models of Meander Evolution..............................................36 Conceptual Models of Meander Migration............................................................36 Numerical Models of Meander Migration .............................................................38 Technical Problems Related to Meander Measurement, Characterization, and Monitoring ..............................................................................................................42 Summary .........................................................................................................................42 EVALUATION OF ANALYSIS OPTIONS ..........................................................................43 The Johns Hopkins Study ...............................................................................................43 Empirical Relationships.........................................................................................44 Bend-Flow Meander Migration Models ................................................................44 The Federal Emergency Management Agency Evaluation.............................................45 Riverine Erosion ....................................................................................................46 Evaluation of Channel Changes ............................................................................47 Conclusions from the FEMA Study........................................................................47 Data Needs ......................................................................................................................48 Empirical Approach...............................................................................................48 Deterministic Approach .........................................................................................49 Summary .........................................................................................................................51 CLASSIFICATION AND SCREENING PROCEDURES ....................................................51 Objective .........................................................................................................................51 Classification Concepts...................................................................................................51 Classification and Screening...........................................................................................52 REGRESSION ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................55 Introduction.....................................................................................................................55 Justification of the Classification System .......................................................................55 Comparison with Other Studies ......................................................................................58 Migration Prediction .......................................................................................................60 Frequency Analysis.........................................................................................................61 Summary .........................................................................................................................64 THE HANDBOOK.................................................................................................................64 Overview.........................................................................................................................64 Application Of Photogrammetry To Meander Migration Analysis ................................66 Map and Aerial Photography Sources ............................................................................66 Map and Aerial Photo Comparison Techniques .............................................................69 Manual Overlay Techniques .................................................................................69 Computer Supported Techniques ..........................................................................70 GIS-Based Measurement and Extrapolation Techniques .....................................71 ARCHIVE DATA BASE........................................................................................................72 Overview.........................................................................................................................72 Data Base Structure.........................................................................................................73 Summary .........................................................................................................................74 CHAPTER 3 Interpretation, Appraisal, Application ....................................................................77 OVERVIEW ...........................................................................................................................77 DATA COLLECTION ...........................................................................................................77 Brice Data Set .................................................................................................................78 Schumm Great Plains Rivers Data Set............................................................................78 Minnesota Rivers Data Set..............................................................................................78 Read the entire page →
From page 6... ... iii Ayres Associates Data Set ..............................................................................................79 Other Data Sets ...............................................................................................................79 Acquisition of Updated Aerial Photos, Maps, and Discharge Data ................................79 MEASUREMENT PROCEDURES .......................................................................................80 Measurements Using MicroStation® ..............................................................................80 Bankline Delineation ............................................................................................80 Valley Width and Orientation ...............................................................................81 Slope and Sinuosity ...............................................................................................82 Measuring Meander Migration .......................................................................................83 GIS Measurement Tool .........................................................................................85 Radius of Curvature..............................................................................................86 Meander Bend Orientation ...................................................................................86 Meander Wavelength and Amplitude....................................................................86 Channel Width .......................................................................................................87 SCREENING AND CLASSIFICATION PROCEDURES ....................................................87 Screening ........................................................................................................................87 Meander Classification ...................................................................................................87 Summary .........................................................................................................................92 AERIAL PHOTO COMPARISON METHODOLOGY.........................................................95 Manual Overlay and Prediction ......................................................................................95 Sources of Error and Limitations ..................................................................................102 Map and Aerial Photo Errors and Limitations...................................................102 Measurement Error.............................................................................................104 Limitations of Overlay Techniques .....................................................................104 GIS PREDICTOR RESULTS...............................................................................................106 REGRESSION ANALYSIS .................................................................................................111 Expansion......................................................................................................................112 Translation and Extension.............................................................................................114 EVALUATION AND TESTING OF THE METHODOLOGY...........................................116 Overview.......................................................................................................................116 Evaluation Procedure ....................................................................................................117 Simple Overlay Technique ..................................................................................117 Computer Assisted (PowerPoint) Overlay Technique ........................................120 ArcView-Based Bend Measurement and Migration Predictor Technique..........121 Testing Results..............................................................................................................121 Simple Overlay – Sacramento River Site ............................................................121 Computer Assisted –Minnesota River Site ..........................................................122 ArcView Based Measurement and Prediction.....................................................122 Statistical Analysis of Test Results......................................................................122 Summary of State DOT Comments ..............................................................................125 Alabama ........................................................................................................................125 Alaska ...........................................................................................................................126 California ......................................................................................................................126 Maryland.......................................................................................................................128 Nevada ..........................................................................................................................129 Texas(City of Austin) Read the entire page →
From page 7... ... iv The Archive Data Base .................................................................................................133 Implementation .............................................................................................................134 The Audience.......................................................................................................134 Impediments to Implementation ..........................................................................134 Leadership in Application...................................................................................134 Activities for Implementation ..............................................................................135 Criteria for Success.............................................................................................136 CHAPTER 4 Conclusions and Suggested Research ....................................................................137 CONCLUSIONS...................................................................................................................137 The Problem..................................................................................................................137 The Methodology..........................................................................................................138 Literature Review................................................................................................138 Analysis Options .................................................................................................139 The Handbook .....................................................................................................140 The Archive Data Base .................................................................................................143 SUGGESTED RESEARCH .................................................................................................143 REFERENCES..................................................................................................................................145 APPENDIX A – Bibliography......................................................................................................... A-1 APPENDIX B – Data Base Index ....................................................................................................B-1 APPENDIX C – Beta Testing Results .............................................................................................C-1 Read the entire page →
From page 8... ... v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Summary diagram for flow pattern and cross-sectional morphology at a bend apex.......13 Figure 2. Read the entire page →
From page 9... ... vi Figure 24. General Data spreadsheet containing the existing data and aerial photograph with bend locations for a site on the Brazos River, Texas ...............................................75 Figure 25. Read the entire page →
From page 10... ... vii Figure 42. Aerial photograph of the White River site in Indiana in 1998 comparing the predicted bankline positions with the actual banklines..................................................102 Figure 43. Read the entire page →
From page 11... ... viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Controls on Meander Morphology and Variability of Change............................................31 Table 2. Read the entire page →

From page 4...

... i CONTENTS ABSTRACT...........................................................................................................................................ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ......................................................................................................................x METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTING CHANNEL MIGRATION..............................................1 SUMMARY..............................................................................................................................1 CHAPTER 1 Introduction and Research Approach .......................................................................4 PROBLEM STATEMENT AND RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ...............................................4 SCOPE OF RESEARCH ..........................................................................................................5 RESEARCH APPROACH .......................................................................................................6 Task 1 – Literature Review...............................................................................................8 Task 2 – Document Case Histories ...................................................................................9 Task 3 – Assemble and Evaluate Existing Data................................................................9 Task 4 – First Interim Report............................................................................................9 Task 5 – Acquire Data and Develop Methodologies ........................................................9 Task 6 – Test and Evaluate Methodology.........................................................................9 Task 7 – Second Interim Report .......................................................................................9 Task 8 – State Evaluation .................................................................................................9 Task 9 – Compile and Archive Data Base ........................................................................9 Task 10 – Prepare an Aerial Photo Comparison Handbook .............................................9 Task 11 – Submit Final Report .......................................................................................10 CHAPTER 2 Findings ......................................................................................................................11 LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................................11 Introduction.....................................................................................................................11 Fundamental Aspects of Meandering .............................................................................11 Flow Patterns, Velocity Distributions, and Boundary Shear Stress Distribution at Bends ......................................................................................................12 Numerical Models of Flow and Sediment Processes at Bends .......................................15 Meander Planform Characteristics..................................................................................16 Historical and Monitoring Studies of Meandering Rivers ..............................................22 Factors Affecting Rates of Meander Change ..................................................................25 Discharge...............................................................................................................26 Mobility of Bed Material........................................................................................26 Sediment Supply .....................................................................................................27 Erodibility of Bank Materials ................................................................................27 Bank Geotechnics...................................................................................................28 Riparian Vegetation and Land-Use .......................................................................29 Basal Cleanout.......................................................................................................30 Human Intervention ...............................................................................................30 Overview ................................................................................................................31

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From page 5...

... ii Styles of Meander Change ..............................................................................................34 Conceptual and Empirical Models of Meander Evolution..............................................36 Conceptual Models of Meander Migration............................................................36 Numerical Models of Meander Migration .............................................................38 Technical Problems Related to Meander Measurement, Characterization, and Monitoring ..............................................................................................................42 Summary .........................................................................................................................42 EVALUATION OF ANALYSIS OPTIONS ..........................................................................43 The Johns Hopkins Study ...............................................................................................43 Empirical Relationships.........................................................................................44 Bend-Flow Meander Migration Models ................................................................44 The Federal Emergency Management Agency Evaluation.............................................45 Riverine Erosion ....................................................................................................46 Evaluation of Channel Changes ............................................................................47 Conclusions from the FEMA Study........................................................................47 Data Needs ......................................................................................................................48 Empirical Approach...............................................................................................48 Deterministic Approach .........................................................................................49 Summary .........................................................................................................................51 CLASSIFICATION AND SCREENING PROCEDURES ....................................................51 Objective .........................................................................................................................51 Classification Concepts...................................................................................................51 Classification and Screening...........................................................................................52 REGRESSION ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................55 Introduction.....................................................................................................................55 Justification of the Classification System .......................................................................55 Comparison with Other Studies ......................................................................................58 Migration Prediction .......................................................................................................60 Frequency Analysis.........................................................................................................61 Summary .........................................................................................................................64 THE HANDBOOK.................................................................................................................64 Overview.........................................................................................................................64 Application Of Photogrammetry To Meander Migration Analysis ................................66 Map and Aerial Photography Sources ............................................................................66 Map and Aerial Photo Comparison Techniques .............................................................69 Manual Overlay Techniques .................................................................................69 Computer Supported Techniques ..........................................................................70 GIS-Based Measurement and Extrapolation Techniques .....................................71 ARCHIVE DATA BASE........................................................................................................72 Overview.........................................................................................................................72 Data Base Structure.........................................................................................................73 Summary .........................................................................................................................74 CHAPTER 3 Interpretation, Appraisal, Application ....................................................................77 OVERVIEW ...........................................................................................................................77 DATA COLLECTION ...........................................................................................................77 Brice Data Set .................................................................................................................78 Schumm Great Plains Rivers Data Set............................................................................78 Minnesota Rivers Data Set..............................................................................................78

Read the entire page →

From page 6...

... iii Ayres Associates Data Set ..............................................................................................79 Other Data Sets ...............................................................................................................79 Acquisition of Updated Aerial Photos, Maps, and Discharge Data ................................79 MEASUREMENT PROCEDURES .......................................................................................80 Measurements Using MicroStation® ..............................................................................80 Bankline Delineation ............................................................................................80 Valley Width and Orientation ...............................................................................81 Slope and Sinuosity ...............................................................................................82 Measuring Meander Migration .......................................................................................83 GIS Measurement Tool .........................................................................................85 Radius of Curvature..............................................................................................86 Meander Bend Orientation ...................................................................................86 Meander Wavelength and Amplitude....................................................................86 Channel Width .......................................................................................................87 SCREENING AND CLASSIFICATION PROCEDURES ....................................................87 Screening ........................................................................................................................87 Meander Classification ...................................................................................................87 Summary .........................................................................................................................92 AERIAL PHOTO COMPARISON METHODOLOGY.........................................................95 Manual Overlay and Prediction ......................................................................................95 Sources of Error and Limitations ..................................................................................102 Map and Aerial Photo Errors and Limitations...................................................102 Measurement Error.............................................................................................104 Limitations of Overlay Techniques .....................................................................104 GIS PREDICTOR RESULTS...............................................................................................106 REGRESSION ANALYSIS .................................................................................................111 Expansion......................................................................................................................112 Translation and Extension.............................................................................................114 EVALUATION AND TESTING OF THE METHODOLOGY...........................................116 Overview.......................................................................................................................116 Evaluation Procedure ....................................................................................................117 Simple Overlay Technique ..................................................................................117 Computer Assisted (PowerPoint) Overlay Technique ........................................120 ArcView-Based Bend Measurement and Migration Predictor Technique..........121 Testing Results..............................................................................................................121 Simple Overlay – Sacramento River Site ............................................................121 Computer Assisted –Minnesota River Site ..........................................................122 ArcView Based Measurement and Prediction.....................................................122 Statistical Analysis of Test Results......................................................................122 Summary of State DOT Comments ..............................................................................125 Alabama ........................................................................................................................125 Alaska ...........................................................................................................................126 California ......................................................................................................................126 Maryland.......................................................................................................................128 Nevada ..........................................................................................................................129 Texas(City of Austin)

Read the entire page →

From page 7...

... iv The Archive Data Base .................................................................................................133 Implementation .............................................................................................................134 The Audience.......................................................................................................134 Impediments to Implementation ..........................................................................134 Leadership in Application...................................................................................134 Activities for Implementation ..............................................................................135 Criteria for Success.............................................................................................136 CHAPTER 4 Conclusions and Suggested Research ....................................................................137 CONCLUSIONS...................................................................................................................137 The Problem..................................................................................................................137 The Methodology..........................................................................................................138 Literature Review................................................................................................138 Analysis Options .................................................................................................139 The Handbook .....................................................................................................140 The Archive Data Base .................................................................................................143 SUGGESTED RESEARCH .................................................................................................143 REFERENCES..................................................................................................................................145 APPENDIX A – Bibliography......................................................................................................... A-1 APPENDIX B – Data Base Index ....................................................................................................B-1 APPENDIX C – Beta Testing Results .............................................................................................C-1

Read the entire page →

From page 8...

... v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Summary diagram for flow pattern and cross-sectional morphology at a bend apex.......13 Figure 2.

Read the entire page →

From page 9...

... vi Figure 24. General Data spreadsheet containing the existing data and aerial photograph with bend locations for a site on the Brazos River, Texas ...............................................75 Figure 25.

Read the entire page →

From page 10...

... vii Figure 42. Aerial photograph of the White River site in Indiana in 1998 comparing the predicted bankline positions with the actual banklines..................................................102 Figure 43.

Read the entire page →

From page 11...

... viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Controls on Meander Morphology and Variability of Change............................................31 Table 2.

Read the entire page →

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