Characterizing Risk in Climate Change Assessments Proceedings of a Workshop (2016) / Chapter Skim
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4 Strategies for the Fourth National Climate Assessment
4 Strategies for the Fourth National Climate Assessment
Pages 55-70
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From page 55... ...
discussed recent EPA work that has an explicit focus on the benefits of taking actions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and that might serve as a model for achieving some of the goals for the NCA4. The floor was then opened for general discussion, and the workshop concluded with final thoughts from members of the committee, two users of the NCA, and the executive director of the U.S.
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From page 56... ...
The report makes a strong quantitative case for the benefits of both mitigation and adaptation, Martinich said, and he presented its key findings: • Global action on climate change limits costly damages in the United States. Across sectors, global greenhouse gas mitigation is projected to prevent or substantially reduce adverse impacts in the United States in this century compared to a future without emission reductions.
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From page 57... ...
TABLE 4-1 Sectors and Impacts Covered in 2015 CIRA Report Health Infrastructure Electricity Water Resources Agriculture and Forestry Ecosystems Air Quality Bridges Electricity demand Inland flooding Crop and forest yields Coral reefs Extreme Temperature Roads Electricity supply Drought Market impacts Shellfish Labor Urban drainage Water supply and Freshwater fish demand Water Quality Coastal property Wildfire Carbon storage NOTE: CIRA, Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis Project. SOURCE: Martinich (2016)
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From page 58... ...
The next phase of CIRA work will test how the results of a coordinated impacts exercise using scenarios and projections could support further development of the NCA. In the longer term, Martinich hopes, the concept of a coordinated impacts modeling will become a credible and feasible way to incorporate analysis of avoided risk and the value of impacts into future NCAs.
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From page 59... ...
It closes with a synthesis of suggestions that individual workshop participants offered regarding the structure of the NCA4 and the process for developing it. Characterizing Risks A primary challenge in characterizing the risks of climate change, many participants noted, is to articulate the magnitude of the potential consequences.
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From page 60... ...
Some participants argued that people may ignore information about climate change because of confusion between outcomes that scientists agree are of great magnitude, although the probability that they will occur is low, and possible outcomes about which scientists have little knowledge. One participant suggested that it might make sense to develop a separate chapter that directly addresses the issues associated with assessing and communicating risk, rather than relying on a consistent presentation across chapters to convey the messages.
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From page 61... ...
Means of engaging stakeholders, including adding them to author teams, convening work sessions across regions, and involving them as reviewers and consultants, should all be considered, these participants suggested. Only by hearing from these groups will the NCA4 authors be able to provide information that is relevant in different sectors and across regions, some suggested.
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From page 62... ...
One suggested that a key contribution would be to weave the perspectives of social science into the framing of ways to reduce vulnerability. Collateral benefits of actions intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions -- for human and environmental health and the economy in particular -- are important for multiple reasons.
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From page 63... ...
For example, a 1975 report on nuclear reactor safety and a 1981 report comparing the risks of different methods of generating electricity both assessed risks and candidly addressed key challenges in communicating about risks. What these and other reports make clear, Fischhoff explained, is that risk analysis inevitably involves definitions of valued outcomes that reflect particular ethical or political interests.
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From page 64... ...
. Past reports have also clearly shown, Fischhoff continued, that climate science requires collaboration among disciplines.
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From page 65... ...
As a result, Fischhoff suggested, "there isn't a cadre of people ready to make the ‘last-mile' connections," that is, to make clear the precise relevance of climate science findings to people's lives and concerns. When these connections are not clear, climate change messages can be skewed by "misplaced precision or imprecision," he added.
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From page 66... ...
Davidson focused on practical approaches to getting around the political sensitivities that often surround discussion of climate change. There is little practical difference between disaster mitigation and climate change adaptation for issues that pose immediate threats, she noted, such as flood, drought, and wildfire.
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From page 67... ...
Weaver suggested that in the past the NCA has not been especially explicit about the sorts of decisions that need to be made in a particular context. The NCA4 could be designed to point the way toward the kinds of analysis that will be needed to support decisions.
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From page 68... ...
Looking beyond the NCA4 to the future of the climate assessment program, Weaver suggested, the focus should be not only on assessing and characterizing risks, but also on "assessing our ability to respond to risks" and explicitly focusing on solutions. Fleming began by noting that the NCA reports are not only required by statute, but also have been very valuable to federal agencies and other users.
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From page 69... ...
The USGCRP must keep advancing fundamental climate science and continue to feed it into the reports and other elements of the sustained assessment. • Models are often tuned to the average condition, which could allow users to overlook some important features, such as low-probability but high-impact conditions (the tails of the distributions)
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From page 70... ...
government relies on the information provided by the NCA in making decisions and setting policies in many domains, for anything from the EPA's Clean Power Plan2 to its Endangerment Finding,3 to setting guidelines for federal buildings managed by the General Services Administration. These decisions have far-reaching effects and can also provide examples that may be influential.
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