From Maps to Models Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities (2016) / Chapter Skim
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2 Illustrative Models
2 Illustrative Models
Pages 21-36
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NGA provides support for humanitarian assistance activities, such as base maps showing cultural places and communication, power, and transportation infrastructure in affected African countries during the outbreak of the Ebola virus disease.2 4. Tensions in the Middle East.
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. Later, the model was enhanced with historical weather data and an agent-based model of pirate behavior to create a Pirate Attack Risk Surface product (Slootmaker et al., 2013; see Figure 2.1)
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interact directly with one another and with their economic environment, following autonomous decision rules. By studying the behavior of house prices in the periods leading up to and after the crisis, and investigating the importance of various factors that are amenable to policy interventions (e.g., central bank interest rate policies, leverage limits, creditworthiness limits, removal of refinancing restrictions, write-downs of mortgage principal, and subsidies to first-time homeowners)
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Models of the type described above can be useful in determining whether price increases in specific cities present significant bubble risk. FIGURE 2.2 Housing bubble model for Washington, DC.
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. Snow persuaded city leaders to shut down the water pump, and the disease subsided.
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Thus, changes in temperature and precipitation affect the distribution and transmission of the disease. The potential impact of a changing climate on malaria incidence has been studied through process-based and empirical models.
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Empirical models are useful for defining the distribution limits of the disease, although they do not reveal the mechanisms driving climate sensitivity of malaria risk. Empirical models using recorded cases and observed temperature have confirmed the occurrence of malaria in higher altitudes with increased temperatures (Siraj et al., 2014)
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(2014) explored this question using newspaper articles and agent-based dynamic network simulation for 16 countries associated with the Arab Spring.
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The model correctly predicted revolution would not occur in the six countries only tangentially involved in the Arab Spring (low and sometimes decreasing revolutionary activity)
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Revolutionary activity was indicated when there was increasing sentiment that nothing was being done to stop revolution (negative revolutionary activity beliefs) , and the violence belief was noticeably positive.
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ILLUSTRATIVE MODELS 31 FIGURE 2.6 Illustrative Twitter networks from the September 2012 Benghazi consulate attack.
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For example, the copresence of particular groups in articles is often used as a measure of relations among those groups. Figure 2.8 is a network diagram illustrating alliances and hostilities of some key groups to ISIS, based on 75 online news articles and open-source reports discussing ISIS and its relation to various groups between January and October 2015.
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Traditionally, energy, food, and water systems have been planned, developed, and analyzed independently. However, integrated assessment models, which couple representations of physical and social systems, are beginning to be used to understand some of the interconnections and interdependencies between water and other systems and to project future outcomes for food, energy, and water.
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Thus, higher water prices in a particular region would indicate higher water scarcity, and cause reductions in the consumption of water-intensive goods and shifts in agriculture production. Figure 2.10 illustrates future shifts in the production of corn, rice, and wheat under three scenarios: lowest-cost groundwater, highest-cost groundwater, and baseline median estimates for groundwater cost.
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, and a carbon tax regime covering only fossil fuel and industrial emissions (FFICT)
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Baseline scenario, using median estimates of groundwater cost. (Right)
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