From Maps to Models Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities (2016) / Chapter Skim
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1 Why Models?
1 Why Models?
Pages 9-20
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From page 9... ...
Analysts acquire, process, and analyze imagery and other geospatial information from a variety of classified and open sources and deliver information products and services to policy and decision makers. SOURCE: http://gcn.com/articles/2014/11/20/nga-map-of-the-world.aspx.
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. However, NGA envisions developing a broader modeling and analysis capability that will enable analysts to search for spatial and temporal patterns; make inferences from those patterns; predict future political, economic, and military threats to the United States; and evaluate options and consequences around the world.
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Identify types of mathematical, numerical, and statistical models and spatiotemporal analytical meth ods (e.g., coupled models, inverse models, agent-based models, machine learning, and statistical inference) used to understand complex adaptive systems, such as those found in the natural or built environment, and in health, political, social, or economic systems.
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A broad intelligence question is How will worldwide urbanization trends affect regional political, economic, and security environments? Intelligence tasks include the following: • What change indicators from geospatial intelligence and other sources can be best measured to as sess these conditions or events?
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For example, the broad intelligence question in NGA's megacities scenario (How will worldwide urbanization trends affect regional political, economic, and security environments?
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shows warming at the planetary surface. The dots in this figure represent globally averaged surface air temperature observations as a function of latitude, from Oort and Rasmusson (1970)
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. Scoping and Planning the Investigation The real-world systems associated with NGA's example intelligence scenarios contain a large number of heterogeneous subsystems (e.g., geophysical, environmental, cultural, and economic)
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STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF MODELS Models simplify relationships and omit or aggregate some features and processes of the real-world systems they are representing, depending on the key questions of the investigation. This abstraction is precisely what makes models immensely useful, because it reduces the number of processes that may be acting or changing and thus provides clearer insight on the most important aspects of the system.
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Model-based predictions of climate change embody this concept. Many climate models can accurately simulate the global temperature record, but their predictions of warming for the 21st century can differ by a factor of 2 or 3, depending on how the models handle aerosols and greenhouse gases, which contribute to warming in different ways (Kiehl, 2007)
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. ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT This report describes models and analytical methods that are potentially relevant to NGA and discusses how they could be developed, used, or adapted for geospatial intelligence purposes.
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Example questions are posed to illustrate how NGA could think about these components. Chapter 4 covers models and methods likely to be of particular interest to NGA, the state of the art in these models and methods, ways to make them useful to NGA, and research and development that could help NGA adapt, use, and maintain the models for geospatial intelligence purposes.
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