Guidebook for Preparing and Using Airport Design Day Flight Schedules (2016) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 106-110
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From page 106... ...
C-1 A p p e n d i x C The purpose of this appendix is to supplement the information provided in Chapter 6 with more background information on some key issues related to the evaluation of uncertainty with respect to DDFSs. In particular, the concept of confidence intervals will be explained in more detail, along with the distribution of uncertainty between annual forecasts and DDFS forecasts.
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From page 107... ...
C-2 Guidebook for preparing and Using Airport design day Flight Schedules occurrences, the part encompassed by 2 standard deviations accounts for about 95 percent of occurrences, and the part encompassed by 3 standard deviations accounts for 99.7 percent of occurrences. When the spread is equal to approximately 1.25 standard deviations, 90 percent of the area under the curve is encompassed.
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From page 108... ...
evaluation of ddFS Uncertainty C-3 distribution that incorporates all the probability distributions associated with the inputs and parameters. Separate Monte Carlo tests were performed on an example large-hub airport to estimate confidence intervals based on DDFS forecast factors by themselves, based on annual forecast factors by themselves, and based on annual and DDFS factors in combination.
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From page 109... ...
Exhibit C.3. Monte Carlo example: peak hour uncertainty based on annual forecasting uncertainty.
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From page 110... ...
evaluation of ddFS Uncertainty C-5 Exhibit C.4 than in Exhibit C.3, the differences are not readily detectable when looking at the graphs. It should be noted that the confidence intervals associated with DDFS uncertainty are not additive to the confidence intervals associated with annual forecasting uncertainty.
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