Guidebook for Preparing and Using Airport Design Day Flight Schedules (2016) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 77-83
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From page 77... ...
77 C H A P T E R 8 This chapter provides recommendations on how to evaluate and manage the uncertainty inherent in all DDFS forecasts. It is intended for both users and preparers.
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From page 78... ...
78 Guidebook for Preparing and Using Airport Design Day Flight Schedules Uncertainty will remain even if the DDFS preparer obtains full airline input and cooperation, as airline business plans contain their own uncertainty and the useful life of the business plan tends to be much shorter than the 20-year planning horizon of a typical master plan and is often affected by the strategies of competing airlines. Many annual forecasts are based on one or more quantitative forecasting equations, which convert inputs such as income and fare levels into passenger forecasts.
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From page 79... ...
How to Address Risk and Uncertainty in DDFSs 79 Even when accurate, relevant data are not always available on a timely basis, and the outdated information can result in inaccurate forecasts. Finally, unforeseen events, such as the September 11, 2001, attacks or the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak, or at a more local level, airline exit from or entry into a market, are major sources of uncertainty.
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From page 80... ...
80 Guidebook for Preparing and Using Airport Design Day Flight Schedules Forecast Scenarios: Forecast scenarios can range from simple high and low scenarios to more complex scenarios involving potential airline changes, including air service, peaking/ distribution characteristics, and bankruptcies and mergers. Preparing a DDFS for each forecast scenario can generate a wealth of detail.
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From page 81... ...
How to Address Risk and Uncertainty in DDFSs 81 input factors (income, airfares, etc.) and forecast parameters (income and fare elasticities)
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From page 82... ...
82 Guidebook for Preparing and Using Airport Design Day Flight Schedules Risk Registers ACRP Report 76: Addressing Uncertainty about Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/acrp/acrp_rpt_076.pdf also identifies risk registers as an effective way of identifying and quantifying risk and uncertainty in airport activity forecasting. Risk registers are especially useful in addressing low-frequency, high-magnitude risks that are difficult to define using probability distributions.
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From page 83... ...
Risk Identification Risk Evaluation Magnitude of Impacts Risk ID Risk Category Status Threat or Opportunity Probability/ Likelihood Description of Impact Impact on Low Mid High Expected Duration Expected Recovery 1 Airline Strategy Increase in number of connecting banks 30% Increase in number of connecting banks resulting in passengers and operations spread more evenly throughout the day with reduced peaks and increased nighttime operations Aircraft Operations, Passengers X Medium to Long term Uncertain 2 Airline Strategy Decrease in aircraft turnaround time 40% Decrease in gate requirements; reduced ability to recover from disrupted operations Aircraft Operations, Passengers X Long term None 3 Technology Supersonic aircraft 5% Change in international flight times/windows, U.S. CBP requirements International Aircraft Operations, Passengers X Long term None 4 Airport Facilities Runway Reconstruction 50% Reduced capacity; change in throughput, reduced peak activity Aircraft Operations, Passengers X Medium term Full 5 Irregular Operations Disruption in Schedule 99% Delay in Operations Aircraft Operations, Passengers X Short-term Full CBP = U.S.
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