Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security Proceedings of a Workshop (2018) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
4 Forecasting Methods and Topics
4 Forecasting Methods and Topics
Pages 29-46
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 29... ...
The panel closed with an open discussion between the presenters and audience members. FROM PREDICTION TO PRACTICE: INTEGRATING FORECASTING MODELS INTO PUBLIC HEALTH EDUCATION AND RESPONSE Kacey Ernst, University of Arizona, focused on the importance of incorporating the social and behavioral sciences into predictive models of vectorborne diseases.
|
From page 30... ...
Ernst observed that "early warning systems for epidemics face several key challenges, including integration of disparate data streams, changing risk landscapes as new controls, human behavior, and response capacity shift." Thus, she stressed, multiple components must be monitored for early warning system forecasts to be accurate. As an example of an early warning system, Ernst cited a projection she worked on with colleagues to identify the risk of transmission of the Zika virus in the continental United States.2 She explained that she and the team, led by Dr.
|
From page 31... ...
. On the seasonal occurrence and abundance of the Zika virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti in the Contiguous United States.
|
From page 32... ...
FORECASTING WATER AVAILABILITY IN ARID REGIONS Afreen Siddiqi, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University, discussed methods of forecasting water availability in arid regions. Because water is essential to human existence, she observed, limited access to water can have a devastating effect on human welfare, societal welfare, and public health.
|
From page 33... ...
Because experience has shown that water forecasting methods using historical data are not helpful, she and her colleagues initiated a research program to find a method that would work. They began by identifying large-scale infrastructure projects under consideration in arid regions.
|
From page 34... ...
Reviewing the decision criteria in Table 4-1, Siddiqi noted that, because many of the large-scale infrastructure projects in Jordan are financed by foreign financiers, foreign investment potential is a significant consideration for stakeholders. She observed that political feasibility is another important factor for decision makers.
|
From page 35... ...
. Formulating expectations for future water availability through infrastructure development decisions in arid regions.
|
From page 36... ...
Furthermore, decision makers' priorities in a country may change because of changes occurring internationally or within the country. AUTHORITARIAN BACKSLIDING: DRIVERS, TRENDS, AND IMPLICATIONS Jennifer Dresden, Georgetown University, focused on the measurement and forecasting of what is termed "authoritarian backsliding," also called in the literature "democratic backsliding," "democratic reversal," " utocratization," and "democratic deconsolidation." Authoritarian back a sliding, she explained, refers to "actions taken by government or state actors to degrade democratic institutions and procedures that impart horizontal or vertical constraints on government power." She added that "the imparting of constraints refers to the institutions and the procedures, not the backsliding itself.
|
From page 37... ...
. However, she noted, consensus is lacking on what causes backsliding to happen, and existing research on this question using forecasting models is not directly relevant to current circumstances.
|
From page 38... ...
Finally, she said, because backsliding is often reactive, the "interaction between the incumbent and opposition actors is central to backsliding processes." CONNECTING THEORY TO POLICY WITH FORECASTING According to Christopher Gelpi, Ohio State University, quantitative research in international relations is often dismissed as not being policyrelevant. In his presentation, he challenged this assumption by arguing that some forecasting methods can actually bridge theory and policy.
|
From page 39... ...
The second method, according to Gelpi, is to use forecasting models, three types of which are frequently used in the fields of international relations and comparative politics: game theoretic models, which study interactions between decision makers in competitive situations; time series models, which involve the coding and analysis of event data over a period of time; and structural models, which make a prediction by using an estimated set of coefficients to measure data that have been collected on a set of covariates. Gelpi asserted that structural models are the best method for connecting theory and policy because -- unlike game theoretic and time series models -- they are both theoretical and generalizable.
|
From page 40... ...
Gelpi explained that he and his colleague "found that there were different eras of international politics where the causal model of war was really different." In Figure 4-3, Gelpi noted, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the x-axis are flipped so that the scale can be read to show that "the vertical axis is the true-positive rate and the horizontal axis is the false-positive rate." He added that the bottom line represents both forecasts "trying to predict militarized disputes in the Cold War era." The top model, he continued, which has been calibrated based on Cold War–era data, has a strong ROC curve (the top line curved toward the upper left)
|
From page 41... ...
FORECASTING METHODS AND TOPICS 41 FIGURE 4-3 Overgeneralization of effects. SOURCE: Jenke, L., and Gelpi, C
|
From page 42... ...
REMARKS FROM SUZANNE FRY Fry began by stating that the Intelligence Community (IC) values and utilizes forecasts from both the natural and the social sciences.
|
From page 43... ...
Systemic risk analysis is a welldeveloped methodology in the natural sciences, she observed, but is not applied as often as it could be in the social sciences. Turning to regime types, Fry asserted that, in addition to hybrid regimes, administrative capacity -- whether things are improving or deteriorating -- is another dimension of governance that requires more research.
|
From page 44... ...
Siddiqi noted that much of the work discussed in her presentation related to decision analysis. Decision analysis, she said, is rooted in the assumption that options are being reviewed and weighed by rational and logical decision makers.
|
From page 45... ...
FORECASTING METHODS AND TOPICS 45 decision-making process: individuals with deep expertise in a specific area and people that know "a lot about lots of different things." She added that, although deep country experts or deep functional experts may work with many different models, "they tend to be variants on one phenomenon." On the other hand, she continued, those that know "a lot about lots of different things" are often very good at forecasting because they have access to a variety of models that allow them to "think about different ways of envisioning an outcome." It is also important, she stressed, to know which type of forecaster is needed in a given situation. Gelpi added that quantitative models are helpful because they force people to "be specific and concrete" in defining the variables and measurements being used.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.