Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security Proceedings of a Workshop (2018) / Chapter Skim
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6 Closing Thoughts
6 Closing Thoughts
Pages 51-56
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From page 51... ...
MISSING TOPICS Goldgeier pointed to an approach that had not been mentioned: the use of comparative scenario analysis as a method for generating policy-relevant research questions. He identified this as a way to think about "plausible alternative futures 5 years down the road." By identifying common patterns within those scenarios, he suggested, one can discern potentially significant developments or trends that may drive international politics.
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From page 52... ...
He observed that somewhat regular patterns of frequency can be seen in the recurrence of the most serious pandemics if one looks across millennia, and it is reasonable to expect another pandemic of the type that can cause "major die-offs of populations." Thompson also pointed to ethnic conflicts. Study of these conflicts has been hampered in the past, he asserted, by imperfect data that appeared to "suggest that ethnicity didn't have anything to do with civil wars." He noted, however, that more recent work focused on political discrimination has produced important advances in this area.
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From page 53... ...
Researchers in global trends, he noted, have moved toward defining the U.S. foreign policy role as "first among equals" rather than as world leader, but they have not fully explored the potential effects of a scenario in which the United States is no longer "first" and the world lacks a leader.
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From page 54... ...
First, he pointed to the role of emotion in explaining why status matters and how it influences domestic political debates. "Disruptive influence operations succeed not when they make rational arguments," he suggested, "but when they appeal to emotions, and people are persuaded to believe something and will not change that belief even though it is not true." Lynn-Jones also highlighted the importance of considering whether the study of status yields findings different from those that would emerge from the study of other variables, such as the pursuit of power, wealth, national interest, or security.
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From page 55... ...
"We don't have a concept in search of a problem to solve," he said; "we have a problem that is still looking for concepts." Traditional analysis of deterrence, he added, is based on a dichotomy between peace and war, so that "if you want to keep the peace, you threaten some form of retaliation as soon as the other party engages in unacceptable behavior." He suggested that this dichotomy is not relevant in the cyber world because it is the locus of continuous warfare operations. Lasting deterrent mechanisms are not available, he observed.
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From page 56... ...
56 EMERGING TRENDS AND METHODS IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY the parameters certainly change over time, he asserted that "when you get the same outcomes repeated millennia after millennia, it is more possible to make that kind of a prediction. In some cases, long-term history can be used to make forecasts."
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