Learning from the Science of Cognition and Perception for Decision Making Proceedings of a Workshop (2018) / Chapter Skim
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2 Data and Analysis in the Intelligence Community
2 Data and Analysis in the Intelligence Community
Pages 7-10
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From page 7... ...
In his remarks, he highlighted several important aspects of the IC's role, as well as some of the difficulties it faces in managing data and answering specific questions for policy makers. Fingar pointed out that the IC collects an extremely large amount of data -- both publicly available and clandestinely acquired -- each day.
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From page 8... ...
Fingar acknowledged that the focus of intelligence analysis is on making sense of available data to determine their relevance and communicate useful information derived from the data such that it will be fully understood by policy makers. He then cited multiple aspects of accurate communication to decision makers: being clear about what is known, what is not known, what assumptions were used to bridge the information gaps, why some assumptions were used over others, and how changing an assumption or weighing certain evidence differently might affect the interpretation of the data.
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From page 9... ...
Sometimes, he added, the most useful information for policy makers is clarification of the level of uncertainty in a given situation. Another workshop participant, recognizing that data collection and analysis are separate functions within the IC, asked Fingar whether he sees a need for greater emphasis on fast feedback between those engaged in these two functions, particularly when new, unanticipated problems arise.
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From page 10... ...
However, he continued, analysts need to be prepared to show their work, if necessary, in order to be as transparent as possible about the complexity of the data. This entire process, he added, hinges on policy makers' trust in the IC's objectivity, in the capability of the individual analyst, in the analyst's having tapped into the broader IC and outside expertise as appropriate, and in the analyst's ability and willingness to show the work if requested.
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