Guidelines for Managing Geotechnical Risks in Design–Build Projects (2018) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 28-34
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From page 28... ...
28 This chapter focuses on the quantitative analysis of geotechnical risk for the typical design– build project. It provides methodologies for computing the magnitude of the risks identified using the tools found in Chapters 2 and 3.
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Quantitative Geotechnical Risk Analysis 29 4.3 Non-Simulation Approach In the non-simulation approach, the likelihood and the expected impact of the risk, if they occur, are estimated by the risk assessment team. The results are documented in the risk register.
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30 Guidelines for Managing Geotechnical Risks in Design–Build Projects Such estimates are provided for all the risk factors. The SMEs who conduct the risk assessment in a workshop setting arrive at the estimated costs.
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Quantitative Geotechnical Risk Analysis 31 to try to bracket the cost or delay by providing a pessimistic and an optimistic value and then provide the most likely cost or delay. So each risk cost or delay is estimated with three estimates representing optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic scenarios.
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32 Guidelines for Managing Geotechnical Risks in Design–Build Projects then be used to decide on the next course of action and can also be used to determine reasonable amounts of contingency for the project's budget or duration. 4.4.2 Example The hypothetical example of Figure 4.2 is used to illustrate a simulation-based risk assessment case.
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Quantitative Geotechnical Risk Analysis 33 each iteration, the software sampled each of the input distributions, multiplied impact values by likelihoods, and summed up the outcomes to calculate the total risk. Figure 4.5 summarizes the outcome of these 10,000 simulation iterations.
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From page 34... ...
34 Guidelines for Managing Geotechnical Risks in Design–Build Projects decide the level of premium that the owner may be willing to pay to transfer all DSC risks to the DB contractor. This analysis can also be used as a tool to assess the necessity of further geotechnical investigations before going to bid.
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