Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles, Volume 1: Executive Summary (2018) / Chapter Skim
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11 Modeling Systems The CAV planning and modeling framework presented in Figure 1 uses three types of modeling systems: • Trip-based models developed as aggregate models of population and employment in a region with disaggregate measures of transportation supply and an aggregate assignment process, • Activity-based (AB) and dynamic traffic assignment (DTA)
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12 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles Table 1. Potential trip-based modeling changes.
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Modeling Systems 13 relationships, DTA reveals traffic congestion levels and effective capacities through the simulation of how vehicles navigate the roads and intersections. Because no observed data exist on how the introduction of CAVs will affect aggregate speed–flow relationships, the use of a simulation method that can represent detailed differences in the ways that human drivers and AVs will navigate road networks may be the most promising approach for learning how CAVs will influence traffic capacity and congestion levels.
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14 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles Table 2. Summary of model improvements for AB and DTA models.
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Modeling Systems 15 to understanding how the combination of policies or transport supply or demographics on travel demand can influence each other (and not be double-counted)
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16 Updating Regional Transportation Planning and Modeling Tools to Address Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles Model Component Strategic Model Improvements Sociodemographics Population synthesizer Add smartphone ownership and education level Built Environment Urban form Adjust urban form Urban form Estimate area type, development type Mobility Vehicle ownership Add household vehicle ownership costs for CAVs Vehicle age model Represent higher turnover for buying CAVs Vehicle choice Add household AV choice model for vehicle use MaaS Add carsharing, ride-hailing, bikesharing memberships Accessibility Parking supply Add parking supply Modal accessibility Add walking and biking accessibility Pricing Household budgets Incorporate all aspects of cost for CAVs and MaaS Parking costs Segment parking cost Fuel cost savings Increase fuel efficiency for CVs and AVs Car service cost Model SAV cost Travel Demand VMT model by vehicle type Adjust VMT for households owning CAVs VMT model by vehicle type Add VMT for fleet-owned CAVs Feedback for congestion Separate VMT models for AVs and SAVs Feedback for congestion Separate VMT models for CAVs Feedback for induced demand Add VMT adjustment for induced demand Household VMT model Adjust VMT for mobility-limited populations Mode choice VMT by mode Add CAVs and TNCs on basis of cost per mile Truck and commercial vehicles Mode choice–long haul Add choice models for current modes and CAVs Vehicle type–long haul Add choice model for medium/heavy trucks and CAVs Vehicle type–short haul Add choice model for light/medium/heavy trucks and AVs/drones CV VMT model Add feedback for congestion Note: VMT = vehicle miles traveled. Table 3.
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