Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies (2019) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 111-118
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From page 111... ...
111 Final Perspectives and Future Research Opportunities Research for this project has examined a wide range of existing studies of air passenger demand and air passenger activity by many types of researchers, as well as the types of data typically used to design and conduct these studies, along with the sources of these data. This effort has focused both on understanding how and why these studies were conducted and the extent to which the studies made use of disaggregated socioeconomic data.
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112 Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies approach directly address the four forwardlooking questions identified in the introduction to this report: • How does air passenger behavior differ across socioeconomic cohorts or subgroups, especially with respect to individual propensities to choose to travel by air? • Can disaggregated socioeconomic factors be introduced into traditional approaches to modeling air passenger demand at individual airports or systems of airports, and do those variables provide new information compared to a baseline of traditional air passenger demand modeling using aggregate socioeconomic variables?
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Final Perspectives and Future Research Opportunities 113 Summary of Findings from Research The primary goal of the research project was to investigate the extent emerging or ongoing socioeconomic changes in the population (such as the age structure of society, increased immi gration, wealth concentration, geographic redistribution of the population, and changing views on the use of disposable income) are likely to influence the future demand for air travel and may not be well captured in current approaches to air passenger demand modeling.
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114 Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies subgroups. In particular, the California Household Travel Survey appeared to undercount air trips by California residents.
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Final Perspectives and Future Research Opportunities 115 More broadly, the approach followed in developing the more detailed model of the BaltimoreWashington region needs to be applied to other airports and regions to determine whether the resulting models for those airports or regions also show a similar improvement or whether the results found for the BaltimoreWashington region are somehow unique to that region or maybe even an artifact of the data used in the analysis. In addition, the Baltimore Washington region is one of the largest multiairport regions in the country and the airports serving the region are much larger than most other individual airports to which the approach could be applied.
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116 Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies This would allow other interested researchers to contribute suggestions and comments on the scope of future research. Although each of the potential research opportunities would contribute to a better under standing of how air passenger demand is influenced by disaggregated socioeconomic factors and how to best reflect this in air passenger demand models, and hence there is no obvious priority between the various research needs, it would seem reasonable to focus initially on two issues: explore applying the modeling approach used for the more detailed analysis of the Baltimore–Washington region to other airports and regions in order to determine how trans ferable these findings are and investigate the reasons for the differences in air travel propensity between air passenger intercept surveys and household travel and expenditure surveys.
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Final Perspectives and Future Research Opportunities 117 improvement in both model fit to the historical data and predictive ability. Furthermore, includ ing the disaggregated income variable resulted in a significant change to the demand elasticities implied by the estimated model coefficients.
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118 Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies • Those engaged in air passenger modeling may also find the case study analysis and especially the investigation of new modeling specifications for air passenger demand at the Baltimore Washington airport system suggestive of new approaches that could be taken in their own assignments. • Airport planners and managers (and other users of air passenger demand studies)
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