The National Academies Press

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From page 8... ... 8 C H A P T E R 2 This chapter reviews existing studies of air passenger demand. These studies were undertaken by a variety of individuals and organizations and for a variety of purposes: the relatively pure research motivations of academic researchers, educational or informational purposes exhibited by governmental researchers and reports, or the highly practical objectives of airport professionals and consultants preparing analyses and forecasts of air passenger demand for individual or systems of airports. Read the entire page →
From page 9... ... Survey of Past Analyses of Air Passenger Demand 9 pair or revenue passenger miles) Read the entire page →
From page 10... ... 10 Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies is the most common measure of air service included in air travel demand studies, although how airfares were defined varied according to the scope of the study. The inclusion of airfare in air travel demand models allows for the calculation of price elasticities. Read the entire page →
From page 11... ... Survey of Past Analyses of Air Passenger Demand 11 National Travel Survey data to estimate separate models for vacation and business travel. Dargay (2010) Read the entire page →
From page 12... ... 12 Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies destination country's consumer price index (CPI) , used as a proxy for a price index of destination travel and accommodation costs, and the annual average exchange rate. Read the entire page →
From page 13... ... Survey of Past Analyses of Air Passenger Demand 13 dummy variables for the hub size of airports at each end of the market, and quarter and market dummy variables. ACRP Reports and Other ACRP Documents Several past ACRP reports address airport issues related to airport forecasts of air passenger demand. Read the entire page →
From page 14... ... 14 Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies the demand for air travel, it does not address how those interact to influence the total regional air travel demand. The report does not present a formal model for predicting airport choice in a multi-airport region, but it does include a fairly comprehensive literature review that contains summaries of many prior studies that have developed such models. Read the entire page →
From page 15... ... Survey of Past Analyses of Air Passenger Demand 15 Surveys and Studies of Traveler Behavior and Choice Analysis of traveler behavior underlies all attempts to model air passenger demand, and more generally intercity travel demand, although often this analysis is implied by the form of the model used. Air passenger traffic at a given airport is the result of several choices made by potential travelers, including the choice of whether to make a trip at all, which mode to use, and if air travel is chosen, which airports to use. Read the entire page →
From page 16... ... 16 Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies There is an extensive literature on intercity travel demand that shows how analysis techniques have evolved since some of the early abstract mode work on the U.S. Northeast Corridor in the 1960s (e.g., Baumol and Quandt 1966) Read the entire page →
From page 17... ... Survey of Past Analyses of Air Passenger Demand 17 demand as a shared performance requirement or objective. Airport master plans nearly always include forecasts or projections of air passenger activity, and they are a natural place to look for examples of the ways airports and their consultants model and predict passenger activities such as annual enplanements. Read the entire page →
From page 18... ... 18 Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies data products prepared for use by entities and organizations in academia, government, and the private sector (including airports) that conduct quantitative economic research that relies on relationships between socioeconomic variables. Read the entire page →
From page 19... ... Survey of Past Analyses of Air Passenger Demand 19 Forecast, or TAF. As of the end of 2017, the most recent TAF provides forecasts for the period 2016 to 2045 (FAA 2017) Read the entire page →
From page 20... ... 20 Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies documenting the forecasts. The forecasts for the remaining airports, which account for less than 1% of the enplanements in the state, were basically assumptions, either by the study team or based on discussions with the air taxi operators serving the airports or the airport management. Read the entire page →
From page 21... ... Survey of Past Analyses of Air Passenger Demand 21 which variables to use for a given sector appears to have been based on which variables gave the best statistical fit rather than any underlying causal logic. Air Service Development and Passenger Leakage Studies Air service development studies and passenger leakage studies are customarily products prepared for airports by aviation consulting firms. Read the entire page →
From page 22... ... 22 Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies Both airport choice and ground access mode choice models are inherently disaggregate in approach, generally modeling the airport choice or mode choice decisions of individual air parties. These individual choices will reflect the different circumstances faced by each air party, including trip ground origin, air trip destination, time of day of travel, and travel party characteristics, all of which influence each air party's decisions. Read the entire page →
From page 23... ... Survey of Past Analyses of Air Passenger Demand 23 independent variables. Some of the documents rely on more than one forecasting methodology to characterize the factors that affect air passenger demand at the airport. Read the entire page →
From page 24... ... 24 Using Disaggregated Socioeconomic Data in Air Passenger Demand Studies and forecast models are nearly always a means of calculating passenger enplanement forecasts to justify or calibrate airport plans and financing instruments. These models usually represent a relatively small portion of the overall airport analysis, especially in the case of a master planning exercise. Read the entire page →

From page 8...

... 8 C H A P T E R 2 This chapter reviews existing studies of air passenger demand. These studies were undertaken by a variety of individuals and organizations and for a variety of purposes: the relatively pure research motivations of academic researchers, educational or informational purposes exhibited by governmental researchers and reports, or the highly practical objectives of airport professionals and consultants preparing analyses and forecasts of air passenger demand for individual or systems of airports.