Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile (2019) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 21-34
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From page 21... ...
21 Introduction The past two decades have seen major changes in the role of shorter-distance air service, and this is correlated with a major increase in the role of the private automobile for shorterdistance trips. While metropolitan automobile tripmaking is either flat or down (depending on the specific years being examined)
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From page 22... ...
22 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile In the study of modal choice between automobile and air services, it is particularly important to look at per capita patterns of transportation behavior -- in this case, change in per capita rates of enplanement. A chart of enplanements per capita is presented as Figure 2-2, which shows a relatively linear pattern of increase in enplanements per capita between the base year of 1995 and 2000, followed by a more volatile period following the attacks of September 11, 2001, and declines around 2008.
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From page 23... ...
Trends and Changes in Automobile and Air Markets over Two Decades 23 Understanding the Services Provided by the Airlines Distribution of air travel services by distance between 2008 and 2011 was examined in Aviation Industry Performance: A Review of the Aviation Industry 2008–2011 (Office of Inspector General, U.S.
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From page 24... ...
24 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile passengers between Dallas and Houston, Miller downplays the role of consolidation, accepts the logic of higher prices, and focuses squarely on the extra hour of "hassle" associated with security as tipping the door-to-door time comparison in favor of the automobile. Change in the Composition of Air Flight Segments, 1995 to 2016 In what the FAA TAF managers describe to as "the shift in the U.S.
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From page 25... ...
Trends and Changes in Automobile and Air Markets over Two Decades 25 Changes in Air Travel, 1995 to 2016 Table 2-1 presents a quick summary of key changes in air travel between 1995 and 2016. The latest estimate for 2016 from the FAA TAF reports shows nearly 818,000,000 enplanements by commercial carriers at airports with FAA presence (FAA 2016)
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From page 26... ...
26 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile decline to about 2013. Interestingly, the 2005 flattening occurred several years prior to the Great Recession, which also significantly affected aviation trip volumes.
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Trends and Changes in Automobile and Air Markets over Two Decades 27 (not VMT per capita, as in Figure 2-5) in order to make a comparison with absolute growth in enplanements; thus, part of the growth in each travel mode is attributable to an increase in the U.S.
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From page 28... ...
28 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile Long-Distance Travel Behavior in the Present and in 1995 Comparison with Earlier Mode Share Data The research team's examination of the 2017 ACRP Project 03-40 survey results reveals a considerable level of stability in American long-distance travel patterns when compared with the 1995 base-year data. The preliminary results suggest that Americans' long-distance tripmaking by car has increased demonstrably in parallel to the growth of domestic enplanements.
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From page 29... ...
Trends and Changes in Automobile and Air Markets over Two Decades 29 increase in the mode share of automobiles between 1995 and 2017 is evident from Figure 2-8 for all but the shortest distance bands. Using ACRP Project 03-40 Simulated Data As described in Chapter 6, the research team developed a new analysis method to simulate (among other things)
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From page 30... ...
30 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile Changes in Air Fares The relationship between frequency of air travel and the price of air travel is more intuitive. Reviewing several sources4 of data produces multiple estimates of how much the cost of air travel has decreased on a per mile basis, but the latest updates from the airline industry suggest that compared to the estimates for the 1995 base year, the cost has dropped by more than half (Thompson 2013)
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From page 31... ...
Trends and Changes in Automobile and Air Markets over Two Decades 31 both flights (seats) and passenger enplanements for shorter air trips.
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From page 32... ...
32 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile Where the Competitive Markets Are Located Corridors Less than 800 Miles in Distance There are only a finite number of corridors (or city pairs) were the automobile and air modes actually compete.
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From page 33... ...
Source: ACRP Project 03-40 research team. Based on data from FHWA bus study (FHWA 2015)
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From page 34... ...
34 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile example -- includes the examination of air volumes from all of the airports in the Los Angeles area to all of the airports in the New York area5. Examples of air passenger flows between metro regions are the following: • New York City/Los Angeles -- 4.4 million air passengers; • New York City/Bay Area -- 3.1 million air passengers; • Los Angeles/Chicago -- 2.7 million air passengers; and • Chicago to all the airports competing with Boston/Logan -- 2.3 million air passengers.
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