Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile (2019) / Chapter Skim
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4 Over the past two decades, the role of the automobile in providing trips has risen, and the role of the airplane for shorter-distance trips has fallen considerably. Introduction The air travel system operates in competition with the automobile to a great extent.
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Market Competition Between Airplane and Automobile Modes 5 Report Structure This chapter is focused on the overall impact of various factors, both individually and assembled into larger scenarios, on the possible futures for travelers' use of the automobile and/or air modes for long-distance trips. The purpose of this chapter is to establish an overall sense of scale for the range of possible futures that could reasonably be expected under a variety of assumptions.
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6 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile • Attitudes and preferences – The majority of respondents to the survey conducted for this research, in all demographic subgroups, disagree with the concept that they would rather share a car than own it, with Millennials being somewhat more open to the idea. – Attitudinal modeling shows that the decision between the two long-distance modes is largely one between the price of the air trip and the level of stress and distaste associated with the long automobile trip.
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Market Competition Between Airplane and Automobile Modes 7 with trip lengths of more than 100 miles are commenced every day in the United States. This equals more than 3.1 billion long-distance trips made by Americans every year.
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8 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile domestic trips in the lower 48 states with trip lengths of 200 miles and over. Most of these trips are made by automobile, with some 422,000,000 annual domestic air trips.
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Market Competition Between Airplane and Automobile Modes 9 respective category, was used to establish a diverse sample of respondents. The resulting sample size was 4,223.
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10 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile • Scenario 5: Air dominates the future. Congestion on the highways means longer travel times for automobile trips.
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Market Competition Between Airplane and Automobile Modes 11 Understanding the Implications of a Very Automobile-Oriented Future (Scenario 1) As shown in Figure 1-2, a hypothetical scenario with autonomous vehicles shows impacts on air travel that vary by the length of the long-distance trip.
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12 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile Smallest Airports Smaller Larger Largest 30 Airports -34% -25% -17% -12% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% % C ha ng e in A ir P as se ng er s Airport Size Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Air Demand, by Airport Size Figure 1-3. Impacts of Scenario 1 on air trips by airport size.
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Market Competition Between Airplane and Automobile Modes 13 and Pacific divisions tend to make more trips in the longer-distance ranges where the car is a less competitive option. The results presented show that Scenario 1 will affect airports of different sizes very differently.
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14 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile Scenarios 2 and 3. Figure 1-6 shows the percent increase in air trips by trip length for Scenario 3, which includes optimistic assumptions about how new shorter-distance aircraft technology might lower operating costs (and thus ticket prices)
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Market Competition Between Airplane and Automobile Modes 15 airports more competitive with using an automobile for the shorter trips as well. Conversely, a reason that improving service from small airports increases air demand in the longer-distance ranges is that more attractive flights from these airports can also be used to reach hub transfer airports for long air trips.
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16 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile in trips commencing here. The volatility factor is also reflected in the finding that loss of air demand in Scenario 1 would be much more severe for GSO than for a dominant airport like CLT.
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Market Competition Between Airplane and Automobile Modes 17 • Large airports more stressful: For airports on each end that are large hubs, the latent variable for "Airport Stress" is shifted 0.5 units toward higher stress. For the group of airports here labeled "larger," the latent variable for "Airport Stress" is shifted 0.25 units toward higher stress.
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18 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile would increase if all age groups were to adopt such attitudes and young people (younger than 35) were, as they grow older, to retain their present negative attitudes and behavior toward the multiday automobile trip.
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Market Competition Between Airplane and Automobile Modes 19 of more than 1,000 miles are less volatile. Such a shift away from the car would affect smaller airports more than larger airports (not pictured)
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20 Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile The Importance of Leakage It is also clear that the issue of leakage, as perceived by the managers of smaller airports, will not go away. As discussed in Chapter 4, the research team's exploration of "willingness to pay" reveals that the average traveler would spend an extra hour in a car to avoid an extra half hour in an air trip.
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