Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports (2019) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 103-112
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From page 103... ...
103 Two numerical examples are presented here using the Excel templates described in Appendix E Simulation results are presented for airports in Myrtle Beach (for the relative sea level rise example)
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From page 104... ...
104 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports Given this background, Exhibit F-3 shows the mitigation assumptions selected for this example. By design, the mitigation costs and damages with and without the project are defined in a generic way, allowing users to consider specific amounts that would be relevant for however they decide to define the mitigation project.
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From page 105... ...
Climate Risk and Mitigation Numerical Examples 105 Analysis_Start_Yr 2020 Analysis_End_Yr 2060 Discount_Rate 7.0% Mitigation_Project_Type Simplified Project_Start_Yr 2020 Mitigation_Start_Yr 2021 Simplified Mitigation Project Costs Construction_Cost $4,000,000 Annual_Maint_Cost $200,000 Rehab_Interval_Yrs 20 Rehab_Cost $1,000,000 Flooding Event Damage Costs EWL above MHHW (ft) Without Project With Project 0-1 $0 $0 1-2 $0 $0 2-3 $0 $0 3-4 $500,000 $0 4-5 $1,500,000 $0 5-6 $2,500,000 $500,000 6-7 $5,000,000 $1,000,000 7-8 $10,000,000 $2,000,000 8-9 $10,000,000 $2,000,000 9+ $10,000,000 $2,000,000 Exhibit F-3.
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From page 106... ...
106 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports The template makes it easy to do what-if comparisons. For example, one could see the effect of delaying the project for 20 years (e.g., starting the project in 2040 and moving the analysis time horizon to 2040 through 2080)
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From page 107... ...
Climate Risk and Mitigation Numerical Examples 107 a positive payoff from the project is still relatively low (about 56%) , so decision makers must consider whether they would be willing to accept the risk of not undertaking the project.
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From page 108... ...
108 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports For PHX, it is clear that projections for temperatures well above the "very hot days" definition identified in the ACROS projections would be needed to assess the potential impact on aircraft operations at the airport. Using methods described in Chapter 4, the project team obtained LOCA-downscaled projections of daily maximum temperatures for the RCP8.5 climate scenario from 32 different GCM models and four grid points surrounding PHX for the period 2020 through 2089 in order to more fully examine the potential impact of extreme temperatures.
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From page 109... ...
El ev ati on 11 35 ft V al id e le va ti on ra ng e is 0 -4 00 0 ft ; l att er is th e m ax im um e le va ti on fo r w hi ch m od el c an a ut om ati ca lly e sti m at e w ei gh t r es tr ic ti on s.
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From page 110... ...
110 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s A vg A nn ua l D ay s ab ov e 11 0° F Range of Avg Annual Days above 110°F across Models by Decade Max Min Median 0 50 100 150 200 250 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s 2060s 2070s 2080s 2090s A vg A nn ua l D ay s ab ov e 10 0° F Range of Avg Annual Days above 100°F across Models by Decade Max Min Median Exhibit F-9. Range of incidence of projected high temperatures for PHX.
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From page 111... ...
Climate Risk and Mitigation Numerical Examples 111 Using these assumptions, the template carries out 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The results shown in Exhibit F-11 indicate that the project has a very low average benefit–cost ratio and never pays off.
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From page 112... ...
112 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports Mean Std Deviation Avg NPV of Project $9,414,641 $4,237,418 Avg B/C Ratio 1.14 0.06 -$180 -$160 -$140 -$120 -$100 -$80 -$60 -$40 -$20 $0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% N PV ($ m ill io ns ) Net Impacts: Baseline vs.
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