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From page 55... ... 55 7.1 Introduction Case studies for this project featured four local airport sponsors. The interactions with the airports were accomplished through a series of airport-specific webinars and follow-up teleconferences. Read the entire page →
From page 56... ... 56 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports extreme water level. The higher the water level, the greater the number of infrastructure components that would be exposed. Read the entire page →
From page 57... ... Case Studies 57 airport operators in making these determinations and, in particular, whether they were using the ACROS tool and the latest data available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to assess climate risk. Read the entire page →
From page 58... ... 58 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports PowerPoint presentation was prepared for the WebEx conference with each airport. The presentations began with a common set of introductory slides and then moved on to the specific case study for the airport. Read the entire page →
From page 59... ... Case Studies 59 Applying the same climate risk profiles to the mitigation scenario generated 5,000 outcomes defined as net life-cycle costs (avoided risk minus the life-cycle costs of mitigation) Read the entire page →
From page 60... ... 60 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports Sampling plan Random draw among models for each year of each simulation Random draw among models using interpolations based on RCP probabilities Random draw among models using interpolations based on RCP probabilities Random draw among models for each year of each simulation Monte Carlo simulations 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Summary of climate risk Increase in median days above 118°F from near zero at time of this report to over 20 by the 2080s, with variances across simulations Median annual sea level rise event increases from 1.6 ft historically to 6.2 ft by 2095; wide variations in outcomes Median annual sea level rise event increases from 2.6 ft historically to 5.5 ft by 2095; wide variations in outcomes Increase in median days above 100°F with variances across simulations Type of analysis FAA benefit–cost study Financial analysis Financial analysis FAA benefit–cost study PHX MSY BOS LIT Date April 26, 2018 April 27, 2018 May 7, 2018 May 10, 2018 Format WebEx WebEx WebEx WebEx Climate risk Very high temperature days Extreme water level events due to sea level rise Extreme water level events due to sea level rise Very high temperature days Impacts investigated Increased exposure to full flight cancellations when temperatures exceed 118°F Increased exposure to extreme water events (flooding) due to sea level rise Increased exposure to extreme water events (flooding) Read the entire page →
From page 61... ... Case Studies 61 Modeled impact of climate risk Using FAA critical values, evaluate cost of cancelled regional jet flights when temperatures reach 118°F and cancelled standard jet flights above 126°F Evaluate net benefit of reducing the impacts of extreme water events using generic cost values for differing water levels Evaluate net benefit of reducing the impacts of extreme water events using generic cost values for differing water levels Using FAA critical values, evaluate delay costs to passengers bumped from flights to current and potential new destinations due to payload restrictions Modeled mitigation Runway extension with discounted lifecycle cost of $30 million Flood mitigation project with discounted lifecycle cost of $20 million Flood mitigation project with discounted lifecycle cost of $20 million Runway extension with discounted life-cycle cost of $30 million Impact of mitigation Elimination of flight cancellations Eliminate flooding for extreme water events up to 5 ft and reduce impact of higher events 80% Eliminate flooding for extreme water events up to 5 ft and reduce impact of higher events 80% Elimination of payload restrictions for domestic flights Analysis results Project has negative expected NPV and pays off only 15% of the time; 3% chance of $35 million loss if not built, but project could pay off with a higher probability with delayed implementation 10– 20 years out. Project has positive expected NPV and pays off 70% of the time; 20% chance the airport would lose $40 million or more if the project were not built; results based on a 3% discount rate. Read the entire page →

From page 55...

... 55 7.1 Introduction Case studies for this project featured four local airport sponsors. The interactions with the airports were accomplished through a series of airport-specific webinars and follow-up teleconferences.

Read the entire page →

From page 56...

... 56 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports extreme water level. The higher the water level, the greater the number of infrastructure components that would be exposed.

Read the entire page →

From page 57...

... Case Studies 57 airport operators in making these determinations and, in particular, whether they were using the ACROS tool and the latest data available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to assess climate risk.

Read the entire page →

From page 58...

... 58 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports PowerPoint presentation was prepared for the WebEx conference with each airport. The presentations began with a common set of introductory slides and then moved on to the specific case study for the airport.

Read the entire page →

From page 59...

... Case Studies 59 Applying the same climate risk profiles to the mitigation scenario generated 5,000 outcomes defined as net life-cycle costs (avoided risk minus the life-cycle costs of mitigation)

Read the entire page →

From page 60...

... 60 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports Sampling plan Random draw among models for each year of each simulation Random draw among models using interpolations based on RCP probabilities Random draw among models using interpolations based on RCP probabilities Random draw among models for each year of each simulation Monte Carlo simulations 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Summary of climate risk Increase in median days above 118°F from near zero at time of this report to over 20 by the 2080s, with variances across simulations Median annual sea level rise event increases from 1.6 ft historically to 6.2 ft by 2095; wide variations in outcomes Median annual sea level rise event increases from 2.6 ft historically to 5.5 ft by 2095; wide variations in outcomes Increase in median days above 100°F with variances across simulations Type of analysis FAA benefit–cost study Financial analysis Financial analysis FAA benefit–cost study PHX MSY BOS LIT Date April 26, 2018 April 27, 2018 May 7, 2018 May 10, 2018 Format WebEx WebEx WebEx WebEx Climate risk Very high temperature days Extreme water level events due to sea level rise Extreme water level events due to sea level rise Very high temperature days Impacts investigated Increased exposure to full flight cancellations when temperatures exceed 118°F Increased exposure to extreme water events (flooding) due to sea level rise Increased exposure to extreme water events (flooding)

Read the entire page →

From page 61...

... Case Studies 61 Modeled impact of climate risk Using FAA critical values, evaluate cost of cancelled regional jet flights when temperatures reach 118°F and cancelled standard jet flights above 126°F Evaluate net benefit of reducing the impacts of extreme water events using generic cost values for differing water levels Evaluate net benefit of reducing the impacts of extreme water events using generic cost values for differing water levels Using FAA critical values, evaluate delay costs to passengers bumped from flights to current and potential new destinations due to payload restrictions Modeled mitigation Runway extension with discounted lifecycle cost of $30 million Flood mitigation project with discounted lifecycle cost of $20 million Flood mitigation project with discounted lifecycle cost of $20 million Runway extension with discounted life-cycle cost of $30 million Impact of mitigation Elimination of flight cancellations Eliminate flooding for extreme water events up to 5 ft and reduce impact of higher events 80% Eliminate flooding for extreme water events up to 5 ft and reduce impact of higher events 80% Elimination of payload restrictions for domestic flights Analysis results Project has negative expected NPV and pays off only 15% of the time; 3% chance of $35 million loss if not built, but project could pay off with a higher probability with delayed implementation 10– 20 years out. Project has positive expected NPV and pays off 70% of the time; 20% chance the airport would lose $40 million or more if the project were not built; results based on a 3% discount rate.

Read the entire page →

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