Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports (2019) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 89-102
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From page 89... ...
89 The project team constructed Microsoft Excel–based simulation templates that can be used by individual airport personnel to conduct their own Monte Carlo–based BCAs of climate change. The team developed two separate templates: one for sea level rise, and one for high temperatures.
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90 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports water events at the indicated location. A sample is shown in Exhibit E-2.
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Microsoft Excel Templates 91 SITE PSMSL_ID NLAT NLONG SCENARIO RSL2000 RSL2010 RSL2020 RSL2030 RSL2040 RSL2050 RSL2060 SAN FRANCISCO 10 37.81 -122.47 0.3 - MED 0 3 6 10 13 17 21 SAN FRANCISCO 10 37.81 -122.47 0.5 - MED 0 3 8 12 17 22 28 SAN FRANCISCO 10 37.81 -122.47 1.0 - MED 0 5 10 17 25 36 47 SAN FRANCISCO 10 37.81 -122.47 1.5 - MED 0 7 13 22 34 51 69 SAN FRANCISCO 10 37.81 -122.47 2.0 - MED 0 8 16 28 46 70 97 SAN FRANCISCO 10 37.81 -122.47 2.5 - MED 0 8 18 32 54 83 118 NEW YORK 12 40.70 -74.01 0.3 - MED 0 5 11 15 20 25 31 NEW YORK 12 40.70 -74.01 0.5 - MED 0 6 13 19 25 31 39 NEW YORK 12 40.70 -74.01 1.0 - MED 0 9 19 29 39 51 65 NEW YORK 12 40.70 -74.01 1.5 - MED 0 12 25 39 53 71 92 NEW YORK 12 40.70 -74.01 2.0 - MED 0 14 31 48 67 92 124 NEW YORK 12 40.70 -74.01 2.5 - MED 0 14 29 50 76 105 144 Exhibit E-4. Projected RSL data.
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Exhibit E-5. RSL user selections 1.
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Microsoft Excel Templates 93 Results Once all of the selections have been made, the user can navigate to the Results sheet and click the "Recalculate All Results" button to generate predictions from 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations.27 Or if interested just in the water event probabilities (exclusive of the NPV calculations from the mitigation project) , one can click the button at the top of the sheet to recalculate just those results immediately below.
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From page 94... ...
94 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports the left shows the estimated net impacts with and without the mitigation project.28 In the example shown previously, one can see that without undertaking the proposed mitigation project, there is almost a 20% chance that the airport could be exposed to damages in excess of $40 million. With the project, that chance is reduced to under 1%.
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From page 95... ...
Microsoft Excel Templates 95 also shows a table of results for the right-hand chart, indicating the actual NPV difference at 5% increments.) Overall, the template should be useful to users by allowing them to quickly assess different possible mitigation strategies to combat sea level rise.
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From page 96... ...
96 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports Template for Maximum Daily Temperatures The look and feel of the Excel template for potential climate change events reflecting high temperatures is similar to that for sea level rise. But unlike the latter, there is no centralized collection of high-temperature projections for multiple airports that can be gathered into a single file.
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From page 97... ...
Microsoft Excel Templates 97 • User Selections: This sheet is where the user inputs the airport elevation and runway length, details about which specific routes and aircraft types may be candidates for weight restrictions if temperatures get high enough, the costs that would be incurred for the proposed runway extension, and the delay costs that would be incurred for passengers that must be removed from a flight if it is weight restricted. • Results: This sheet presents the results of 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations based on the user selections.
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98 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports the sampling method directly accounts for the weights by adjusting the probability of being sampled in each year of the Monte Carlo simulations.35 Aircraft Data As mentioned previously, the Aircraft Data sheet contains a lookup table where the weight restriction for a given aircraft type can be estimated given the airport elevation, runway length, and temperature. Basic assumptions for aircraft takeoff weights and fuel consumption are also contained in this sheet.
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Exhibit E-12. High-temperature user selections 1.
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From page 100... ...
100 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports The second part of the User Selections sheet is shown in Exhibit E-13; it is similar to the corresponding section of the RSL template and allows the user to enter assumptions about the mitigation project, costs, and potential damage impacts from weight restrictions (measured as passenger delays)
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From page 101... ...
Exhibit E-13. High-temperature user selections 2.
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From page 102... ...
102 Climate Resilience and Benefit–Cost Analysis: A Handbook for Airports After making sure you have refreshed other sheets, click Recalculate button for results: Mean Std Deviation Avg NPV of Project -$18,458,050 $662,973 Avg B/C Ratio 0.64 0.01 Recalculate -$90 -$80 -$70 -$60 -$50 -$40 -$30 -$20 -$10 $0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% N PV ($ m ill io ns ) Net Impacts: Baseline vs.
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