Technical Appendix to Air Demand in a Dynamic Competitive Context with the Automobile (2019) / Chapter Skim
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From page 61... ...
61 average business or economy fares, the number and times of direct flights to the destinations, and average peak and non-peak security times, are not similarly transferable. HIGHLIGHTS Highlights of the findings from Chapter 8 include: People value long-distance travel positively, and enjoy doing it − There is strong support for the idea that the air trip is "exciting" − There is somewhat weaker, but still positive, support for the idea that the long auto trip is "appealing." People are making more trips per capita than in the base year of 1995 and drive more miles per capita over the same period.
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From page 62... ...
62 about how that behavior has changed between the base year of 1995 and the present year. The analyses presented in this chapter are based on the preliminary results of the ACRP 2017 survey, which have since been applied to a national framework of data.
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63 today (including baggage fees) 1 -- but the data shown on Figure 8-1 includes the price of parking at the airport.
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64 FIGURE 8-2: COST MODEL FULLY ALLOCATED ROUND-TRIP, BY MODE, AND PARTY SIZE ($0.54 PER MILE) The Price of the Auto Trip This section and its analysis explore the implications of the way in which the traveler interprets auto costs, as opposed to what has been established as fully allocated costs.
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65 by four for a four-person trip party, assuming that all trip members could utilize a single motel room.
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66 FIGURE 8-4: ATTITUDINAL BELIEF ABOUT WHEN THE AIR TRIP IS CHEAPER The trade-off in Figure 8-3 is largely based on the difference between the per-person cost of the airplane trip (which does not vary much by trip party size) and the per-person cost of the car trip, which does vary by trip party size.
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67 mile, instead of the $0.23 cents used this chart. The logical implications of the two figures are important.
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68 with the curve for the employed group staying quite flat through the highest distance categories. Clearly, in the key distance range between 700 and 1,700 miles, lack of employment is a more powerful explanatory factor than income alone.
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From page 69... ...
69 FIGURE 8-7: EFFECT OF TRIP DISTANCE ON AUTO MODE SHARE, TWO AGE GROUPS The Role of Trip Purpose, by Trip Distance Compared to those traveling for leisure, those traveling on business have a far greater propensity to take the airplane for the short-distance trip, and a far lower propensity to take it for trips over 1,900 miles (Figure 8-8)
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From page 70... ...
70 FIGURE 8-8: AUTO MODE SHARE, BY DISTANCE BY TRIP PURPOSE The Role of Travel Party Size, by Trip Distance But what about larger trip party units? In the 2017 ACRP survey, the average travel party size was 2.3.
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From page 71... ...
71 FIGURE 8-9: AUTO MODES SHARE, BY TRIP DISTANCE AND PARTY SIZE The Interaction between Trip Purpose and Party Size Figure 8-10 shows that business trips are far more likely to be taken alone than nonbusiness trips. Fifty-six percent of business trips by air are taken alone, compared to only 31% of nonbusiness trips by air.
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From page 72... ...
72 FIGURE 8-10: TRIP PARTY SIZE, BY TRIP PURPOSE AND MODE Need for the Auto at Trip End, by Trip Distance Those who report that they need the flexibility of a car at the destination of the trip have a significantly higher propensity to choose the car in the referenced trip, as shown in Figure 8-11. The minority of the sample reported that they do not need a car choose it as a mode, even for relatively short-distance trips.
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73 FIGURE 8-11: AUTO MODE SHARE BY DISTANCE -- NEED CAR VS. DON'T NEED CAR Number of nights in total trip Figure 8-12 shows the number of nights spent on the round trip.
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74 WHO IS TRAVELING BY CAR OVER 1,700 MILES? In the examination of the explanatory variables, increasing trip distance is associated with decreasing share for the auto -- until approximately 1,700 miles, where the auto mode share remains near 10%.
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75 FIGURE 8-13: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NUMBER OF DESTINATIONS AND MODE CHOICE, BY DISTANCE Travelers with multiple destinations are more likely to be male, young, away for more days, and in a larger travel party -- with more household members and more children. (It is not resolved here as to whether the decision to visit several relatives in one trip causes the choice of the car, or whether the choice of the car causes the traveler to visit several relatives.)
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76 PREVIOUS EXPLORATIONS OF AIRPORT CHOICE Several past studies have analyzed the relationship between airports' attributes and the share of air passengers that they attract in regions with multiple airports. One of the earliest published studies on this topic resulted in the development of the Multiple Airport Demand Allocation Model.
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From page 77... ...
77 approach, used also in this research project, can provide more robust estimates of the ways in which air travelers trade off attributes when making airport choices. IMPLICATIONS FROM THE ACRP 2017 SURVEY RESULTS The following sections of this chapter deliver early observations from the results of the ACRP 2017 survey, illustrating the ways travelers value each of the attributes associated with available airports.
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78 airports. In all cases, these specific airports were the larger hub airports in the regions studied, reflecting the higher levels of amenities and service offered in those airports.
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79 FIGURE 8-14: AUTO MODE SHARE IN 1995 AND 2017 SURVEYS, BY TRIP DISTANCE A significant increase in the mode share of auto between 1995 and 2017 is evident in Figure 8-14. Many attributes that can be expected to influence mode choice for long-distance trips have changed between 1995 and 2017, and some of those changes are briefly reviewed in this chapter, including changes in basic prices.
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From page 80... ...
80 2007 and 2013, it has largely rebounded in the past four years. The data in Figure 8-15 suggest that there is remarkably little change in our propensity to generate VMT over the past 20 years, at just under 10,000 miles per person.
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81 between 1995 and 2016. Phrased differently, the average American is boarding planes about 18% more than he/she was in 1995 (Table 8-2.)
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82 8(E) ATTITUDES TOWARD THE LONG-DISTANCE TRIP AND ITS MODES OVERALL OBSERVATION: PEOPLE STILL WANT TO TRAVEL FIGURE 8-17: HEDONIC ATTITUDES ABOUT THE LONG-DISTANCE TRIP, BY MODE AND AGE GROUP In this section of Chapter 8, we review a wide variety of subject areas concerning attitudes toward transportation and specific modes.
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83 ATTITUDES TOWARD THE AUTO FIGURE 8-18: ATTITUDES TOWARD THE AUTO BY AGE, GENDER, AND INCOME Survey respondents generally report positive attitudes toward the car. Attitudes toward the freedom and independence that a car provides vary relatively little by demographic group.
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84 ATTITUDES TOWARD CONGESTION AND STRESS FIGURE 8-19: ATTITUDES TOWARD CONGESTION ON STRESS Survey respondents strongly believe that the long-distance trip by air will be less stressful and tiresome than an equivalent trip by car. Individuals with higher income and Millennials especially agree with that statement.
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From page 85... ...
85 FIGURE 8-20: PREFERENCES ABOUT LONG-DISTANCE MODE Driving for several days is perceived as being more unpleasant by Millennials compared to other subgroups. Further, Millennials are more likely to say that even driving with family and friends is unpleasant, that finding a hotel and the costs of overnight stays is a concern, and that the level of uncertainty associated with a car trips makes them choose the plane.
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From page 86... ...
86 ATTITUDES ABOUT ACCESS TO/FROM THE AIRPORT FIGURE 8-21:ATTITUDES ABOUT AIRPORT ACCESSIBILITY Most respondents in our survey did not feel that getting from the home to the airport was inconvenient, with Millennials showing the least satisfaction here. The needs at the nonhome end of the trip, however, are somewhat more complex.
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From page 87... ...
87 ATTITUDES ABOUT DISTURBING BEHAVIOR IN THE TRIP FIGURE 8-22: CONCERNS ABOUT THE AIR TRIP Note: Three questions in Figure 8-22 regarding disturbing behavior and the safety of air travel were reverse-scored to facilitate interpretation Individuals are less concerned about crime and disturbing behavior when traveling by plane compared to by car. However, survey respondents were more concerned about the lack of privacy when traveling by plane, with most moderately agreeing with the idea the having people seated so close is unpleasant.
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From page 88... ...
88 PREFERENCES AND CHOICE OF THE AIR TRIP FIGURE 8-23: AIR TRIP PREFERENCES Most Americans would prefer to fly for their trips over 300 miles. This especially holds for females, those with higher income, and for younger individuals compared to males, those with lower income, and those over 35.
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