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From page 87... ... 87 This chapter presents the freight mode choice models obtained by the team. Since the descriptions of independent variables and model specifications for various types of models were provided in Chapter 7, this chapter only provides the model results. Read the entire page →
From page 88... ... 88 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts which are conceptually valid and statistically significant. The bottom part of each table shows the models that are not recommended because, although they are conceptually valid, they are not statistically significant. Read the entire page →
From page 89... ... Model Results 89 SCTG Description a0 t-stat aGC5 t-stat Obs R2 RMSE F 03 Agriculture 3.974 15.99 -4.676E-05 -2.81 40 0.15 1.20 7.90 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 5.616 34.19 -2.412E-04 -4.55 35 0.38 0.83 20.66 06 Milled Grain Products 3.867 14.39 -1.217E-04 -3.78 40 0.25 1.41 14.29 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 4.299 22.40 -2.044E-04 -6.36 40 0.50 0.93 40.45 11 Natural Sands 1.559 5.16 -1.354E-04 -4.33 40 0.31 1.49 18.77 12 Gravel and Stone 1.818 7.06 -4.926E-05 -2.12 40 0.08 1.23 4.48 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 3.313 13.14 -1.286E-04 -4.91 40 0.37 1.18 24.09 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 1.667 3.34 -2.573E-04 -4.49 40 0.34 2.50 20.16 19 Coal Products 2.972 16.26 -7.987E-04 -4.22 40 0.30 1.17 17.83 23 Other Chemicals 4.256 29.02 -1.881E-03 -3.94 40 0.27 0.94 15.51 24 Plastics and Rubber 3.960 39.71 -9.408E-04 -5.00 40 0.37 0.57 24.97 25 Logs and Wood 3.090 10.11 -7.002E-04 -4.34 25 0.43 1.25 18.85 26 Wood Products 4.223 20.97 -2.371E-04 -6.63 40 0.52 0.97 43.90 27 Pulp, and Paper 3.775 20.71 -1.150E-03 -7.21 40 0.56 0.68 51.99 28 Paper Articles 5.584 26.57 -1.500E-03 -7.82 40 0.62 0.86 61.15 29 Printed Products 6.377 21.49 -1.029E-03 -4.19 35 0.33 1.05 17.56 30 Textiles 5.777 23.99 -8.220E-04 -3.09 40 0.18 1.16 9.54 31 Cements and Ceramics 3.369 25.26 -8.336E-04 -3.18 40 0.19 0.81 10.09 32 Base Metal 4.086 26.43 -1.624E-04 -3.71 40 0.24 0.80 13.77 33 Articles of Base Metal 5.403 28.93 -1.307E-03 -4.89 40 0.36 0.93 23.91 34 Machinery 5.130 42.26 -6.504E-04 -3.66 40 0.24 0.73 13.39 35 Electronics 5.788 26.18 -6.321E-04 -2.68 40 0.14 1.03 7.18 39 Furniture 7.219 31.37 -1.569E-03 -7.17 30 0.63 0.70 51.37 43 Mixed Freight 5.275 29.95 -2.169E-03 -6.17 40 0.49 0.93 38.12 02 Cereal Grains 0.552 1.72 -5.260E-05 -1.04 40 0.00 1.96 1.08 04 Animal Feed 2.341 7.98 -7.204E-04 -1.51 40 0.03 1.52 2.28 08 Alcoholic Beverages 3.614 9.50 -1.052E-03 -1.54 35 0.04 1.88 2.36 10 Building Stone 4.462 9.36 -8.489E-05 -1.90 5 0.34 1.02 3.63 18 Fuel Oils 2.206 4.62 -1.455E-04 -1.19 25 0.02 2.24 1.42 38 Precision Instruments 4.698 25.80 -2.253E-04 -0.71 35 -0.01 1.08 0.51 40 Misc. Manufacturing 5.680 33.40 -3.065E-04 -1.40 40 0.03 1.02 1.96 41 Waste and Scrap 1.596 11.61 -7.145E-05 -1.42 40 0.02 0.87 2.02 Not Recommended: Conceptually Valid but Statistically Not Significant Recommended: Conceptually Valid and Statistically Significant Table 23. Read the entire page →
From page 90... ... 90 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts SCTG Description a0 t-stat aGC10 z-stat Obs R2 RMSE F 03 Agriculture 3.881 16.08 -4.267E-05 -2.49 40 0.12 1.22 6.20 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 5.416 34.63 -2.767E-04 -4.02 35 0.32 0.87 16.19 06 Milled Grain Products 3.823 14.39 -1.261E-04 -3.68 40 0.24 1.42 13.56 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 4.188 21.59 -2.192E-04 -5.74 40 0.44 0.98 32.92 11 Natural Sands 1.542 5.12 -1.381E-04 -4.30 40 0.31 1.50 18.49 12 Gravel and Stone 1.811 7.05 -4.924E-05 -2.09 40 0.08 1.23 4.36 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 3.302 13.07 -1.323E-04 -4.85 40 0.36 1.19 23.48 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 0.958 1.93 -1.997E-04 -2.94 40 0.17 2.81 8.66 25 Logs and Wood 2.853 9.36 -7.154E-04 -3.64 25 0.34 1.34 13.26 26 Wood Products 4.193 20.93 -2.530E-04 -6.54 40 0.51 0.98 42.73 27 Pulp, and Paper 3.481 17.03 -2.004E-03 -4.86 40 0.36 0.82 23.61 28 Paper Articles 5.032 21.54 -1.822E-03 -4.61 40 0.35 1.12 21.28 29 Printed Products 5.914 20.56 -8.272E-04 -2.59 35 0.14 1.19 6.70 32 Base Metal 4.010 26.89 -1.839E-04 -3.40 40 0.21 0.82 11.55 33 Articles of Base Metal 4.900 29.05 -1.543E-03 -2.90 40 0.16 1.07 8.39 39 Furniture 7.138 28.97 -2.006E-03 -6.33 30 0.57 0.76 40.02 10 Building Stone 4.457 9.37 -8.653E-05 -1.90 5 0.34 1.02 3.62 18 Fuel Oils 2.021 4.36 -3.876E-05 -0.30 25 -0.04 2.30 0.09 19 Coal Products 2.713 9.41 -4.766E-04 -1.72 40 0.05 1.36 2.96 24 Plastics and Rubber 3.658 25.47 -3.847E-04 -0.88 40 -0.01 0.72 0.77 30 Textiles 5.271 25.57 -4.115E-04 -1.23 40 0.01 1.28 1.51 31 Cements and Ceramics 3.206 20.63 -1.580E-04 -0.43 40 -0.02 0.91 0.19 41 Waste and Scrap 1.547 10.95 -3.169E-05 -0.59 40 -0.02 0.89 0.35 43 Mixed Freight 4.299 15.11 -1.775E-03 -1.86 40 0.06 1.26 3.44 Not Recommended: Conceptually Valid but Statistically Not Significant Recommended: Conceptually Valid and Statistically Significant Table 24. Market-share two-digit SCTG models, generalized cost (op. Read the entire page →
From page 91... ... Model Results 91 SCTG Description a0 z-stat ac z-stat 3.730 207.70 0.000 -30.69 02 Cereal Grains -0.920 -23.53 -2.670E-004 -34.31 03 Agriculture 0.438 9.08 -2.920E-005 -25.06 04 Animal Feed -0.445 -12.42 -5.138E-004 -28.67 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 1.748 23.19 -1.321E-004 -23.56 06 Milled Grain Products -0.116 -3.19 -4.500E-005 -30.08 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 0.521 16.97 -8.820E-005 -59.03 08 Alcoholic Beverages 1.578 27.04 -8.384E-004 -46.23 11 Natural Sands -0.871 -21.87 -2.173E-004 -37.35 12 Gravel and Stone 0.132 3.44 -1.041E-004 -17.88 13 Non-Metallic Minerals -0.935 -20.19 -6.760E-005 -21.82 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 0.493 7.15 -4.635E-004 -42.72 18 Fuel Oils 1.359 17.47 -3.169E-004 -11.08 19 Coal Products 0.969 22.48 -5.614E-004 -39.63 20 Basic Chemicals -0.965 -37.74 -2.449E-004 -18.34 22 Fertilizers -1.131 -31.27 -1.118E-003 -33.76 23 Other Chemicals 0.649 17.02 -4.104E-004 -24.00 24 Plastics and Rubber 0.204 7.66 -2.047E-004 -18.02 26 Wood Products 0.563 17.64 -1.325E-004 -59.59 27 Pulp, and Paper -0.191 -5.31 -4.774E-004 -43.06 28 Paper Articles 1.465 26.42 -6.650E-004 -40.27 29 Printed Products 2.663 27.87 -6.435E-004 -20.30 31 Cements and Ceramics 0.205 7.04 -6.417E-004 -46.59 32 Base Metal 0.489 15.99 -7.380E-005 -24.57 33 Articles of Base Metal 1.504 33.12 -4.887E-004 -27.68 34 Machinery 1.826 31.58 -3.578E-004 -18.17 35 Electronics 2.003 29.23 -3.433E-004 -19.03 36 Motorized Vehicles 0.261 8.40 -1.332E-004 -7.61 38 Precision Instruments 1.380 13.82 -2.377E-004 -6.75 39 Furniture 2.907 24.45 -5.926E-004 -14.76 40 Misc. Manufacturing 2.297 30.14 -5.911E-004 -22.79 41 Waste and Scrap -1.660 -61.03 -1.026E-004 -16.93 43 Mixed Freight 1.967 42.11 -7.976E-004 -45.92 Obs. Read the entire page →
From page 92... ... 92 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts Generalized Cost Models This section presents the unweighted shipment-level models that consider generalized costs as independent variables (see Tables 28 through 31) Read the entire page →
From page 93... ... Model Results 93 Two-Digit SCTG Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC5 z-stat Obs Wald (1) p-value Log Lik. Read the entire page →
From page 94... ... 94 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts Shipment-Level Models: Weighted -- Domestic Cargo (Dom-Weight) This section presents the shipment-level models with sample weighted for the domestic cargo mode share by commodity, as published in FAF Version 4 (FAF 2018) Read the entire page →
From page 95... ... Model Results 95 Generalized Cost Models This section presents the domestic-weight shipment-level models that consider generalized costs as independent variables (see Tables 34 through 37) Read the entire page →
From page 96... ... 96 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts Two-Digit SCTG Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC5 z-stat Obs Wald (<15) p-value Log Lik. Read the entire page →
From page 97... ... Model Results 97 Shipment-Level Models: Weighted -- Total Cargo (Total-Weight) This section presents the shipment-level models with sample weighted for the total (including imports and exports) Read the entire page →
From page 98... ... 98 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts Two-Digit SCTG Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aC z-stat aT z-stat Obs Wald (<15) p-value Log Lik. Read the entire page →
From page 99... ... Model Results 99 Two-Digit SCTG Models Table 43. Shipment-level models, total-weight, two-digit SCTG, generalized cost (op. Read the entire page →

From page 87...

... 87 This chapter presents the freight mode choice models obtained by the team. Since the descriptions of independent variables and model specifications for various types of models were provided in Chapter 7, this chapter only provides the model results.

Read the entire page →

From page 88...

... 88 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts which are conceptually valid and statistically significant. The bottom part of each table shows the models that are not recommended because, although they are conceptually valid, they are not statistically significant.

Read the entire page →

From page 89...

... Model Results 89 SCTG Description a0 t-stat aGC5 t-stat Obs R2 RMSE F 03 Agriculture 3.974 15.99 -4.676E-05 -2.81 40 0.15 1.20 7.90 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 5.616 34.19 -2.412E-04 -4.55 35 0.38 0.83 20.66 06 Milled Grain Products 3.867 14.39 -1.217E-04 -3.78 40 0.25 1.41 14.29 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 4.299 22.40 -2.044E-04 -6.36 40 0.50 0.93 40.45 11 Natural Sands 1.559 5.16 -1.354E-04 -4.33 40 0.31 1.49 18.77 12 Gravel and Stone 1.818 7.06 -4.926E-05 -2.12 40 0.08 1.23 4.48 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 3.313 13.14 -1.286E-04 -4.91 40 0.37 1.18 24.09 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 1.667 3.34 -2.573E-04 -4.49 40 0.34 2.50 20.16 19 Coal Products 2.972 16.26 -7.987E-04 -4.22 40 0.30 1.17 17.83 23 Other Chemicals 4.256 29.02 -1.881E-03 -3.94 40 0.27 0.94 15.51 24 Plastics and Rubber 3.960 39.71 -9.408E-04 -5.00 40 0.37 0.57 24.97 25 Logs and Wood 3.090 10.11 -7.002E-04 -4.34 25 0.43 1.25 18.85 26 Wood Products 4.223 20.97 -2.371E-04 -6.63 40 0.52 0.97 43.90 27 Pulp, and Paper 3.775 20.71 -1.150E-03 -7.21 40 0.56 0.68 51.99 28 Paper Articles 5.584 26.57 -1.500E-03 -7.82 40 0.62 0.86 61.15 29 Printed Products 6.377 21.49 -1.029E-03 -4.19 35 0.33 1.05 17.56 30 Textiles 5.777 23.99 -8.220E-04 -3.09 40 0.18 1.16 9.54 31 Cements and Ceramics 3.369 25.26 -8.336E-04 -3.18 40 0.19 0.81 10.09 32 Base Metal 4.086 26.43 -1.624E-04 -3.71 40 0.24 0.80 13.77 33 Articles of Base Metal 5.403 28.93 -1.307E-03 -4.89 40 0.36 0.93 23.91 34 Machinery 5.130 42.26 -6.504E-04 -3.66 40 0.24 0.73 13.39 35 Electronics 5.788 26.18 -6.321E-04 -2.68 40 0.14 1.03 7.18 39 Furniture 7.219 31.37 -1.569E-03 -7.17 30 0.63 0.70 51.37 43 Mixed Freight 5.275 29.95 -2.169E-03 -6.17 40 0.49 0.93 38.12 02 Cereal Grains 0.552 1.72 -5.260E-05 -1.04 40 0.00 1.96 1.08 04 Animal Feed 2.341 7.98 -7.204E-04 -1.51 40 0.03 1.52 2.28 08 Alcoholic Beverages 3.614 9.50 -1.052E-03 -1.54 35 0.04 1.88 2.36 10 Building Stone 4.462 9.36 -8.489E-05 -1.90 5 0.34 1.02 3.63 18 Fuel Oils 2.206 4.62 -1.455E-04 -1.19 25 0.02 2.24 1.42 38 Precision Instruments 4.698 25.80 -2.253E-04 -0.71 35 -0.01 1.08 0.51 40 Misc. Manufacturing 5.680 33.40 -3.065E-04 -1.40 40 0.03 1.02 1.96 41 Waste and Scrap 1.596 11.61 -7.145E-05 -1.42 40 0.02 0.87 2.02 Not Recommended: Conceptually Valid but Statistically Not Significant Recommended: Conceptually Valid and Statistically Significant Table 23.

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From page 90...

... 90 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts SCTG Description a0 t-stat aGC10 z-stat Obs R2 RMSE F 03 Agriculture 3.881 16.08 -4.267E-05 -2.49 40 0.12 1.22 6.20 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 5.416 34.63 -2.767E-04 -4.02 35 0.32 0.87 16.19 06 Milled Grain Products 3.823 14.39 -1.261E-04 -3.68 40 0.24 1.42 13.56 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 4.188 21.59 -2.192E-04 -5.74 40 0.44 0.98 32.92 11 Natural Sands 1.542 5.12 -1.381E-04 -4.30 40 0.31 1.50 18.49 12 Gravel and Stone 1.811 7.05 -4.924E-05 -2.09 40 0.08 1.23 4.36 13 Non-Metallic Minerals 3.302 13.07 -1.323E-04 -4.85 40 0.36 1.19 23.48 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 0.958 1.93 -1.997E-04 -2.94 40 0.17 2.81 8.66 25 Logs and Wood 2.853 9.36 -7.154E-04 -3.64 25 0.34 1.34 13.26 26 Wood Products 4.193 20.93 -2.530E-04 -6.54 40 0.51 0.98 42.73 27 Pulp, and Paper 3.481 17.03 -2.004E-03 -4.86 40 0.36 0.82 23.61 28 Paper Articles 5.032 21.54 -1.822E-03 -4.61 40 0.35 1.12 21.28 29 Printed Products 5.914 20.56 -8.272E-04 -2.59 35 0.14 1.19 6.70 32 Base Metal 4.010 26.89 -1.839E-04 -3.40 40 0.21 0.82 11.55 33 Articles of Base Metal 4.900 29.05 -1.543E-03 -2.90 40 0.16 1.07 8.39 39 Furniture 7.138 28.97 -2.006E-03 -6.33 30 0.57 0.76 40.02 10 Building Stone 4.457 9.37 -8.653E-05 -1.90 5 0.34 1.02 3.62 18 Fuel Oils 2.021 4.36 -3.876E-05 -0.30 25 -0.04 2.30 0.09 19 Coal Products 2.713 9.41 -4.766E-04 -1.72 40 0.05 1.36 2.96 24 Plastics and Rubber 3.658 25.47 -3.847E-04 -0.88 40 -0.01 0.72 0.77 30 Textiles 5.271 25.57 -4.115E-04 -1.23 40 0.01 1.28 1.51 31 Cements and Ceramics 3.206 20.63 -1.580E-04 -0.43 40 -0.02 0.91 0.19 41 Waste and Scrap 1.547 10.95 -3.169E-05 -0.59 40 -0.02 0.89 0.35 43 Mixed Freight 4.299 15.11 -1.775E-03 -1.86 40 0.06 1.26 3.44 Not Recommended: Conceptually Valid but Statistically Not Significant Recommended: Conceptually Valid and Statistically Significant Table 24. Market-share two-digit SCTG models, generalized cost (op.

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From page 91...

... Model Results 91 SCTG Description a0 z-stat ac z-stat 3.730 207.70 0.000 -30.69 02 Cereal Grains -0.920 -23.53 -2.670E-004 -34.31 03 Agriculture 0.438 9.08 -2.920E-005 -25.06 04 Animal Feed -0.445 -12.42 -5.138E-004 -28.67 05 Meat, Poultry, Fish 1.748 23.19 -1.321E-004 -23.56 06 Milled Grain Products -0.116 -3.19 -4.500E-005 -30.08 07 Prepared Foodstuffs 0.521 16.97 -8.820E-005 -59.03 08 Alcoholic Beverages 1.578 27.04 -8.384E-004 -46.23 11 Natural Sands -0.871 -21.87 -2.173E-004 -37.35 12 Gravel and Stone 0.132 3.44 -1.041E-004 -17.88 13 Non-Metallic Minerals -0.935 -20.19 -6.760E-005 -21.82 17 Gasoline, Ethanol 0.493 7.15 -4.635E-004 -42.72 18 Fuel Oils 1.359 17.47 -3.169E-004 -11.08 19 Coal Products 0.969 22.48 -5.614E-004 -39.63 20 Basic Chemicals -0.965 -37.74 -2.449E-004 -18.34 22 Fertilizers -1.131 -31.27 -1.118E-003 -33.76 23 Other Chemicals 0.649 17.02 -4.104E-004 -24.00 24 Plastics and Rubber 0.204 7.66 -2.047E-004 -18.02 26 Wood Products 0.563 17.64 -1.325E-004 -59.59 27 Pulp, and Paper -0.191 -5.31 -4.774E-004 -43.06 28 Paper Articles 1.465 26.42 -6.650E-004 -40.27 29 Printed Products 2.663 27.87 -6.435E-004 -20.30 31 Cements and Ceramics 0.205 7.04 -6.417E-004 -46.59 32 Base Metal 0.489 15.99 -7.380E-005 -24.57 33 Articles of Base Metal 1.504 33.12 -4.887E-004 -27.68 34 Machinery 1.826 31.58 -3.578E-004 -18.17 35 Electronics 2.003 29.23 -3.433E-004 -19.03 36 Motorized Vehicles 0.261 8.40 -1.332E-004 -7.61 38 Precision Instruments 1.380 13.82 -2.377E-004 -6.75 39 Furniture 2.907 24.45 -5.926E-004 -14.76 40 Misc. Manufacturing 2.297 30.14 -5.911E-004 -22.79 41 Waste and Scrap -1.660 -61.03 -1.026E-004 -16.93 43 Mixed Freight 1.967 42.11 -7.976E-004 -45.92 Obs.

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From page 92...

... 92 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts Generalized Cost Models This section presents the unweighted shipment-level models that consider generalized costs as independent variables (see Tables 28 through 31)

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From page 93...

... Model Results 93 Two-Digit SCTG Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC5 z-stat Obs Wald (1) p-value Log Lik.

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From page 94...

... 94 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts Shipment-Level Models: Weighted -- Domestic Cargo (Dom-Weight) This section presents the shipment-level models with sample weighted for the domestic cargo mode share by commodity, as published in FAF Version 4 (FAF 2018)

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From page 95...

... Model Results 95 Generalized Cost Models This section presents the domestic-weight shipment-level models that consider generalized costs as independent variables (see Tables 34 through 37)

Read the entire page →

From page 96...

... 96 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts Two-Digit SCTG Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aGC5 z-stat Obs Wald (<15) p-value Log Lik.

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From page 97...

... Model Results 97 Shipment-Level Models: Weighted -- Total Cargo (Total-Weight) This section presents the shipment-level models with sample weighted for the total (including imports and exports)

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From page 98...

... 98 Impacts of Policy-Induced Freight Modal Shifts Two-Digit SCTG Models SCTG Description a0 z-stat aC z-stat aT z-stat Obs Wald (<15) p-value Log Lik.

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From page 99...

... Model Results 99 Two-Digit SCTG Models Table 43. Shipment-level models, total-weight, two-digit SCTG, generalized cost (op.

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