Strengthening U.S. Air Force Human Capital Management A Flight Plan for 2020-2030 (2021) / Chapter Skim
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2 Overview of USAF Human Capital Management
2 Overview of USAF Human Capital Management
Pages 19-40
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From page 19... ...
As the key decision-makers overseeing USAF human capital, offices within Headquarters Air Force, Major Commands, and other Total Force leadership positions are assigned primary responsibilities for management. At the most senior levels of the system, strategic approaches are developed and issued through guidance and actions of the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower, Personnel and Services (AF/A1)
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From page 20... ...
USING A CAUSAL LOOP MODEL TO CONCEPTUALIZE THE ECOSYSTEM OF MODERN USAF HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT Without an understanding of the inherent complexity of the USAF HCM system, any single point policy or funding decision -- variables of the ecosystem in which the system works -- has the potential for widespread ramifications that may be inadequately considered, understood, or documented at the outset. Simply put, the HCM ecosystem includes both USAF 1 For more information, see: https://www.aetc.af.mil/About-Us/Pilot-Training-Next/.
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From page 21... ...
Understanding the complexity of the system requires acknowledging the larger ecosystem in which USAF HCM operates. To begin to understand those ecosystem dynamics in more detail, the committee developed a model of the ecosystem of modern USAF HCM (emphasizing influential variables and actions rather than specific Air Force o ffices or organizations)
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From page 22... ...
It is also particularly useful for identifying feedback loops. Figure 2-2 provides the committee's model of the USAF HCM ecosystem (including USAF human capital elements and externalities)
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From page 23... ...
OVERVIEW OF USAF HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 23 FIGURE 2-2 Causal loop model of the modern USAF HCM ecosystem. NOTE: This figure is referred to throughout the report as the "ecosystem model." Key for boxes/highlights: Yellow = important issues; blue = measures of effectiveness; green = research; red = externality; pink = applicants; peach = domestic economic conditions.
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From page 24... ...
24 STRENGTHENING U.S. AIR FORCE HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT FIGURE 2-3 Causal loop model of the modern USAF HCM ecosystem with USAF focus area overlay.
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From page 25... ...
In sum, the ecosystem model visually demonstrates the complexity among USAF human capital elements and also the ecosystem's inherent vulnerability to the effect of single point changes that may occur internally or externally to the Air Force. Consequently, when human capital decisions are made in isolation with limited or no consideration of strategic needs or impacts across other elements, this has the potential to result in major consequences across the Total Force and to frustrate and disenfranchise leaders and support staff working elsewhere in the system.
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From page 26... ...
AIR FORCE HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT to low. Further, the consequence may be greater or lesser depending on the circumstances.
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This is a short list of the types of future shocks that can occur, and though this list is necessarily incomplete, it provides insight into how considering future shocks can inform workforce planning.
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From page 28... ...
In doing this, each actor is provided a way of easily seeing the potential for effects outside their span of control. The fictional example described, along with its cascading effects, was created from the committee's direct conversations with various stakeholders (including, for example, USAF human capital researchers, policy and decision-makers, trainers, and career field managers)
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From page 29... ...
Morale issues began to affect the Total Force, and attrition began to creep upwards. The cascading effects ricocheted and reinforced themselves in an increasingly out of control cycle.
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From page 30... ...
This in turn affected the variables shown in Figure 2-6. - Mission Effectiveness + Need for Training Changes + Research into Future Needs + Operations Disruption - Training Relevance + Instructor Retooling + Need for Training Changes + New Training Development + Training Outcomes Research - Training Relevance + Aggregate Competency Level Rate of Technology Change - Needs of the AF - Accuracy of Future Needs Forecast - Vacant Positions + Research into Future Needs + Accuracy of Future Needs Forecast + Retraining Needs FIGURE 2-4 Variables affected by rate of technology change.
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From page 31... ...
+ Leadership "Bench" + Mission Effectiveness - Retraining Needs Training Relevance + Aggregate Competency Level + Team Effectiveness - Training Outcomes Research - Vacant Positions FIGURE 2-7 Variables affected by training relevance. - Entrance Standards - Involuntary Honorable Separations - Person-Job Fit + Recruiting Efforts - Needs of the AF + Retention Incentives Accuracy of Future Needs + Needs of the AF Forecast - Vacant Positions - Person-Job Fit + Retraining Needs FIGURE 2-8 Variables affected by accuracy of future needs forecast.
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The illustrations below show feedback loops for one of the primary variables affected by the increase in the rate of technology change: mission effectiveness. Appendix B illustrates another feedback loop for the variable, accuracy of future needs forecast.
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From page 33... ...
The point is not to anticipate every externality, but to recognize the potential impact on every part of the ecosystem when change occurs internally or externally. One key takeaway for the Air Force is to have a human capital system that is more "self-aware" of connections and contingencies, that is more agile in recognizing and r esponding to change, and that is more aligned in addressing change.
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From page 34... ...
USAF TOTAL FORCE As further context for the analysis and recommended action items contained later in this report, this section provides a brief overview of the historical, current, and future workforce that comprises the USAF Total Force (i.e., active duty, reservists, and civilian employees) , including important details about highly specialized career fields (additional details on the Total Force are provided in Appendix C)
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From page 35... ...
improve retention of pilots who are attracted by lucrative civilian careers with the commercial airline industry, and (2) increase the capacity and throughput of the pilot training pipeline (1,000 officers completed pilot training in 2015; early 2020 projections indicated 1,300 will complete training in 202010 -- falling short of the 1,480 goal [Losey, 2020]
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From page 36... ...
HISTORICAL ACCOUNT OF USAF HUMAN CAPITAL RESEARCH ORGANIZATIONS The previous sections of this chapter described a complex USAF human capital ecosystem -- supporting the Total Force -- and subject to cascading effects from points internal and external to the Air Force. To navigate this complexity, USAF HCM has benefited over the past 70 years from a succession of internal research support organizations that have evolved into today's USAF human capital research organizations.
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FIGURE 2-11 Historical timeline: USAF personnel research organization. SOURCE: Derived from Sims et al.
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Today's USAF human capital research program has its beginnings in a successful aviation psychology program. Out of this program, several disparate personnel research organizations were established and flourished in the 1950s and 1960s.
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From page 39... ...
Furthermore, the issues that will be raised in Chapters 4 and 5 suggest it does not; as a result, the Air Force may not realize the ambitions it has for its HCM system. SUMMARY As this chapter demonstrates through the USAF HCM ecosystem model, managing the human capital needs of the Total Force involves complicated and complex variables and relationships internal and external to the Air Force.
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From page 40... ...
. Air Force Personnel Research: Recom mendations for Improved Alignment.
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