Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades The Eighth Biennial Review - 2020 (2021) / Chapter Skim
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6 Science to Support Decision Making
6 Science to Support Decision Making
Pages 231-260
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From page 231... ...
As the CERP and related programs come to fruition and critical pieces of the long-envisioned restoration infrastructure begin operations, new opportunities emerge for the application of existing knowledge and the development of a deeper understanding of system function and ecosystem response to water management. Two non-CERP efforts -- the Combined Operational Plan (COP; see Chapter 4)
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From page 232... ...
The value of systems analysis extends far beyond individual project planning, and becomes even more important as the program pivots from a focus on plan ning and advancing individual projects toward operations and adaptive manage ment of the partially restored system, in parallel with ongoing planning for the remaining CERP projects. Despite the need to consider project interactions and changing conditions, it is not clear that a systems approach is commonly used in other dimensions of CERP decision making as a way of applying available knowledge and scientific information.
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From page 233... ...
A project-level adaptive management process (RECOVER, 2011b) has been crafted to support decisions on when or how CERP projects or project components need to be adjusted based on monitoring data to optimize their benefits.
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From page 234... ...
. Addition ally, monitoring data are used to calibrate and validate hydrologic models and to develop response relationships for use in ecological and water quality models.
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From page 235... ...
Patterson, USACE, personal communication, 2017. the COP Adaptive Management component, which demonstrates the utility of monitoring data for operational decisions, is being supported with existing monitoring (see Chapter 4)
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From page 236... ...
Given the extensive resources directed toward project planning and sup port for construction design, assessing current monitoring in the light of decision needs can focus resources and ensure appropriate data are being collected. Some of the best ways to improve the use of monitoring to inform deci sions, however, are through improved linkage and integration of monitoring and modeling and increased focus on synthesis, including a strong data management system.
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From page 237... ...
Hydrologic models used in Everglades restoration follow accepted approaches, with widely agreed upon modeling tools whose results are broadly trusted. However, there is a general lack of characterization of the errors and uncertainty associated with the models (see SFWMD, 2018e and USACE and SFWMD, 2014, Appendix G for prior efforts to propagate hydrologic model error through the decision process)
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From page 238... ...
. The adoption and use of ecological models in Everglades restoration is less advanced and less integrated than the hydrologic framework discussed above, although the number of ecological models and connectivity with hydrologic modeling tools continues to evolve (NASEM, 2016)
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From page 239... ...
Using models to extend the value of monitoring data. Currently, it is difficult to deduce the status of Everglades restoration goals despite the substantial resources devoted to monitoring.
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From page 240... ...
Models can be used to fill in the gaps between observations and also provide estimates of other variables that are not directly observed but nonetheless constrained by observations. Nowcasts range from simple regression models that link current conditions to the variables of interest, such as that used for water quality prediction in Lake Erie (Francy, 2009)
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From page 241... ...
The use of models for near-real-time simulation to better understand the effects of restoration projects can directly support adaptive management of those projects. At present, modeling to support project planning does not provide an expectation for project outcomes that can be compared with project monitoring.
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From page 242... ...
, but to date the focus has been on planning and implementing the backlog of projects. As projects come online and operations influence restoration success, assess ing how external drivers influence interactions among projects could provide lessons learned to inform decisions related to the IDS and expectations related to restoration goals.
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From page 243... ...
The ongoing vulnerability assessment is an example of how the CERP models that have been primarily used for project planning could be used to address the uncertainties of the future that threaten restoration success. However, it does not appear that the powerful modeling tools used for project development are to be used for this analysis.
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From page 244... ...
Vulnerability assessments have been defined in both qualitative/quasiquantitative and quantita tive methodologies. Qualitative assessments are based on expert judgment and have been used for biological vulnerability assessments.
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From page 245... ...
In some basins (e.g., Lower Terrebonne) , the uncertainty in model outputs was greater than the difference between model runs with and without the projects, while in others (e.g., Mid Pontchartrain)
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From page 246... ...
describes the use of modeling to support infrastructure project planning for the C-11 impoundment and improvement of canals and the use of water quality models for STA design and watershed management planning, but does not describe uses of modeling in the restoration operational and management phases of projects.
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From page 247... ...
Expanded capacity to run hydrologic model scenarios and interpret the results could support broader use of models overall, including ecological and water quality modeling. Broader application of models to decision making could be fostered through initiatives to expand the modeling staff and computing power and/ or by extending the user base of CERP regional hydrologic models.
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From page 248... ...
noted that "the effectiveness of the synthesis effort could be improved by explicitly address ing tradeoffs, conflicts, and commonalities among water quality, water quantity, and ecosystem responses." Such an integrated approach has yet to be adopted in the SSR. It is also unclear whether any of the decisions outlined at the start of this chapter utilize information presented in the SSR to change or adjust the way restoration, operations, or science planning proceeds.
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From page 249... ...
Such benchmark overviews of available information and understanding can be used to underscore interpretation of monitoring data and model outputs, support adaptive management decision making, and guide investment to address priority science needs. Ways to Enhance Synthesis Synthesis can take many forms.
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From page 250... ...
These synthesis approaches build on available data and understanding to provide additional insight for use in project planning and restoration assess ment, as well as other decisions. The benefits of synthesis are worthwhile to pursue, and well-founded processes exist in the environmental science community.
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From page 251... ...
where staff skilled in different aspects of synthesis support synthesis projects and work with expert teams to develop synthesis products. Such an approach was used by the Bay-Delta Interagency Ecological Program, which worked with NCEAS to establish several workgroups to examine pelagic organism decline.4 CERP decision makers, with input from RECOVER and the Science Coordination Group, could identify priority topics for synthesis annually and work with synthesis centers to support groups of scientists to work on specific synthesis projects.
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From page 252... ...
,9 that focus on specific measurements.10 A renewed commitment by all participants in CERP data collection activities to developing metadata (i.e., the data that describe the observations and obser vation process) , use of existing databases and associated standards, and timely uploads of new or updated data, can better support the program and utility of the data in synthesis.
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From page 253... ...
A solid data quality program can increase a database user's time for analysis and interpretation and reduce the need for cleaning data. CERP's QAOT has focused on the quality of laboratory and field measurements associated with CERP projects through documents, presentations, and laboratory and field audits.
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From page 254... ...
To provide adequate science support for restoration, CERP decision makers need a nimble organizational infrastructure, with skilled staff, freed from other responsibilities, to support ongoing monitoring, modeling, and synthesis and to facilitate effective communication of key findings with senior restoration deci sion makers. The need is already apparent.
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From page 255... ...
RECOVER has specified roles in the assessment of monitoring data as CERP projects are implemented in support of adaptive management toward the systemwide goals of the CERP (see Box 2-1)
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From page 256... ...
COP adaptive management could serve as a pilot of the organizational infrastructure needed to provide science support for adaptive management in CERP. CERP adaptive management decisions are best made in light of all opportunities for improvements, both within and outside of the CERP, if they are to achieve maximum effectiveness.
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From page 257... ...
The identification and prioritization of science needs to support critical restoration decisions, ensuring the adequacy and relevance of the CERP science enterprise, and fostering communication and use of science in the restoration effort, requires that the CERP identify and empower an individual or small dedicated team to lead the effort. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The value of science -- especially systems thinking and analysis -- becomes even more important as the CERP pivots from a focus on planning and advancing individual projects to operations and management of the partially restored system.
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From page 258... ...
To better support decision making, the use of models should be expanded, including applications such as assessments of restoration progress and evalua tions of future scenarios and vulnerabilities. The CERP has invested significantly to develop a robust set of modeling tools to guide the restoration process, but to date these models have been used mainly for project planning.
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From page 259... ...
• Continuity of expertise to support adaptive management throughout the life cycle of restoration projects, bringing technical expertise developed during planning to bear on data analysis and assessment of restoration progress toward goals. • Strong science leadership to provide an efficient and direct linkage between decision makers who need timely summaries of ongoing work and emerging issues and scientists conducting research, modeling, and monitoring.
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