Models to Inform Planning for the Future of Electric Power in the United States Proceedings of a Workshop (2020) / Chapter Skim
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3 Models for Long-Term Planning
3 Models for Long-Term Planning
Pages 19-30
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From page 19... ...
DAVID DANIELS, U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION Daniels, chief energy modeler at the EIA, addressed the use of modeling as a tool to help policy makers understand how their decisions impact the energy sector.
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From page 20... ...
By producing these simulations under an assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged, the model provides Congress with a baseline to show how policy changes could potentially lead to desired outcomes. Daniels stated that the real world is far too large and complex for a model to fully represent.
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From page 21... ...
E4ST was designed with a high degree of detail and realism, incorporating the thousands of U.S. and Canadian high-voltage transmission lines, a simplified representation of the low-voltage transmission lines, and all of the grid-serving generators in order to project the impacts of policy changes, infrastructure investments, and other factors (Figure 3.1)
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From page 22... ...
He argued that it should be possible to construct a model that can estimate and value the environmental, reliability, resilience, and pocketbook effects of system investments all at the same time. Last, Shawhan suggested that making distribution charges match short-run marginal cost more closely, as has been done with transmission charges, would greatly reduce distribution costs, promote renewables, and reduce inefficient grid defection.
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From page 23... ...
model, EPRI's in-house model for economic insights, power sector decision support, and understanding the impacts of policy and technological changes at the state, national, and international levels. US-REGEN includes enormous detail and regional heterogeneity, which are necessary to understand economic and behavioral incentives for companies and households.
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BETHANY FREW, NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY Frew, senior researcher in the Economics and Forecasting Group of the Strategic Energy Analysis Center at NREL, began by showing an overview of NREL's existing power system modeling capabilities, which cover a wide range of spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 3.4)
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, to which EMIS will belong. To better streamline workflow and improve cross-model linkages, SIIP's unifying modeling framework is being used to overcome challenges related to differences between software languages, inconsistent data structures, and the inability to co-optimize multiple models (Figure 3.5)
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From page 26... ...
Energy Research at Rhodium Group, which uses modeling to answer questions relevant to the future of the electric power system. His particular focus is economy-wide deep decarbonization pathways such as energy efficiency, electrification, and carbon dioxide removal (e.g., through direct air capture [DAC]
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From page 27... ...
In addition, Rhodium Group analyses suggest that electrofuel use could grow as carbon prices rise, despite being cost-prohibitive today. Electrification of vehicles and other products is also projected to rise, although not without better battery costs and aggressive policy interventions, which Larsen suggested will make electrofuels a nontrivial amount Million metric tons of fossil Combustion CO2 5,000 $450 Carbon Price 4,500 $400 4,000 $350 3,500 $300 3,000 Electric Power $250 2,500 Buildings $200 2,000 Industrial $150 1,500 $100 1,000 Transportation $50 500 ‐ $0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 FIGURE 3.6 RHG-NEMS projections suggest increased carbon prices can reduce carbon emissions, especially in the electric power system.
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of the energy supply by 2050. While direct carbon capture and electrofuels require high start-up costs and high utilization rates to be economical, Rhodium Group's modeling suggests scenarios where they can play a substantial role in a decarbonized energy system.
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From page 29... ...
For example, hotter summers impact peak load and resource planning, but experts disagree on whether this falls under the realm of resiliency planning. Frew added that resiliency questions are challenging based on data, software model, and metric needs, where there may not be consistent definitions or data to properly characterize low-probability, high-impact resilience events.
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From page 30... ...
Shawhan answered that models can represent some such international effects, such as effects on generation technology costs, fuel costs, air pollution, and climate. Global models offer some insight, but they lack the technical detail necessary to represent power sectors realistically, and it is important to foster open dialogue and share best practices to align needs with models, he said.
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