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From page 20... ... 20 Estimating Future Parking Facility Needs Together with Chapter 2, this chapter addresses the question, "What, methods are there to forecast future parking demands given the ongoing and future uncertainty regarding passenger propensity to park? " As described in Chapter 2, TNCs and other services have gradually increased their share of the airport ground access market. Read the entire page →
From page 21... ... Estimating Future Parking Facility Needs 21 of private vehicles parked at the airport. Several factors have contributed to the growth in TNC activity at airports but the primary factors appear to be the savings in cost and improved convenience when compared with the other transportation services, such as taxicabs, shared-ride vans, public transit, parking, and rental cars. Read the entire page →
From page 22... ... 22 Rethinking Airport Parking Facilities to Protect and Enhance Non-Aeronautical Revenue that could potentially be used are summarized on Table 3-1, and the availability of these items will vary airport to airport. Subsequent sections of this chapter describe how a methodology could vary depending on the data available for a given airport. Read the entire page →
From page 23... ... Estimating Future Parking Facility Needs 23 • Highest occupancy day of the year; • 30th highest occupancy day of the year; • 90th or 95th percentile of daily peak occupancies throughout the year; • Average (mean) or median daily peak occupancy during the airport's peak month for passenger activity; and • Average (mean) Read the entire page →
From page 24... ... 24 Rethinking Airport Parking Facilities to Protect and Enhance Non-Aeronautical Revenue If airport management chose to use the average Wednesday in March as the design day, the design day demand would be approximately 7% below the absolute peak demand and be exceeded on fewer than 10 days of the year. However, this design day choice would require that the airport provide more than 10% more spaces (and incur higher capital and operating costs) Read the entire page →
From page 25... ... Estimating Future Parking Facility Needs 25 • Introduction of new service provided by a low-cost air carrier may suddenly expand an airport's catchment area, potentially increasing the share of passengers choosing to park (passengers driving to the airport from further away are more likely to be long-term parkers than passengers driving shorter distances) ; • Major out-of-town sporting events involving a local team that may cause local fans to travel; and • Changes in an airport's mix of business versus leisure traffic and local versus visitor traffic (as an example, in 2014, Nashville International Airport's traffic was approximately 60% local passengers or potential parking customers but by 2019, it was 60% visitors or not potential parking customers) Read the entire page →
From page 26... ... 26 Rethinking Airport Parking Facilities to Protect and Enhance Non-Aeronautical Revenue Source: InterVISTAS (airport not noted due to non-disclosure agreement) Read the entire page →
From page 27... ... Estimating Future Parking Facility Needs 27 parking demand decreased by 19.7% over the same period. Figure 3-3 depicts monthly TNC trips (during the peak parking month) Read the entire page →
From page 28... ... 28 Rethinking Airport Parking Facilities to Protect and Enhance Non-Aeronautical Revenue 3. A 14.1% reduction from the 2018 parking spaces per passenger value (0.0143) Read the entire page →
From page 29... ... Estimating Future Parking Facility Needs 29 y = percent growth from same month, prior year x = month number, starting one year after first month of data (i.e., if data began on March 2015, then March 2016 would be month number 1) a = 1.68 b = 0.0514 c = –0.0826 d = 0.0160 The model was then used to estimate year-over-year growth rates through 2038, as shown on Figure 3-6. Read the entire page →
From page 30... ... 30 Rethinking Airport Parking Facilities to Protect and Enhance Non-Aeronautical Revenue 3.5.3 Forecast Approach Using Data from Passenger Survey The next approach uses passenger survey data to estimate how passengers, across an airport's entire catchment area, might trend toward use of TNCs and AVs in the future. While this method may still rely in part on professional judgment, passenger survey data can provide additional information to inform key elements of that judgment. Read the entire page →
From page 31... ... Estimating Future Parking Facility Needs 31 (i.e., an airline passenger parking at the airport for the duration of their trip) Read the entire page →
From page 32... ... Source: InterVISTAS, from passenger survey data provided by Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. Figure 3-8. Read the entire page →
From page 33... ... Source: InterVISTAS, from passenger survey data provided by Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. Figure 3-9. Read the entire page →
From page 34... ... 34 Rethinking Airport Parking Facilities to Protect and Enhance Non-Aeronautical Revenue 3.5.3.1 Design Day Parking Demand For purposes of this example methodology, it is assumed that in 2018, design day parking demand at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport was approximately 2.0 spaces per 1,000 monthly originating passengers during the peak month for parking. Of that, it is assumed that 0.2 spaces per 1,000 monthly originating passengers are associated with short-duration parking (stays of 4 hours or less) Read the entire page →
From page 35... ... Estimating Future Parking Facility Needs 35 • Ongoing growth in the share of the public willing to consider TNCs; • Potential increases in traffic congestion on roadways near the airport, which could disproportionately increase the round-trip travel time between the airport and nearby destinations for short-duration parkers, which would increase the attractiveness of TNCs for those nearby destinations; and • A potential maximum TNC share, recognizing that the non-financial considerations related to short-duration parking will likely mean that a portion of customers will always choose short-duration parking regardless of their potential TNC fare. The resulting pattern is shown on Figure 3-10 as the "2025 estimate." Table 3-2 summarizes the estimated reduction in passenger propensity to park for short durations by 2025. Read the entire page →
From page 36... ... 36 Rethinking Airport Parking Facilities to Protect and Enhance Non-Aeronautical Revenue with each zip code with survey responses, by zip code, revealed the share of DFW passengers choosing TNCs versus long-duration parking. As shown in Figure 3-11, in 2018, for zip codes where a one-way TNC trip was under $10, TNC customers comprised approximately 80% of TNC and long-duration parking customers combined. Read the entire page →
From page 37... ... Estimating Future Parking Facility Needs 37 parking customer market segments by 2025. For Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, it was estimated that for one-way TNC fares of $10, the TNC share of TNC and short-duration parking customers could increase to as high as 99%. Read the entire page →
From page 38... ... 38 Rethinking Airport Parking Facilities to Protect and Enhance Non-Aeronautical Revenue also likely that these adopters will choose to deploy the AVs in areas where they can maximize usage throughout the day. Thus, areas generating high volumes of trips by customers willing to pay for such services, such as central business districts or airports, will more likely be served by AVs than sparser areas. Read the entire page →
From page 39... ... Estimating Future Parking Facility Needs 39 AVs are expected to reduce fares in areas responsible for 7.9% of the parking demand. Thus, the AV-driven 30% reduction in fares by 2028 (which is assumed to result in a 45% reduction in parking demand) Read the entire page →
From page 40... ... 40 Rethinking Airport Parking Facilities to Protect and Enhance Non-Aeronautical Revenue 3.6 Parking Demand Estimates Once the estimated future parking demand per passenger values are calculated, they can be combined with the passenger forecast to estimate the future parking demands. Figure 3-13 depicts a potential range applied to the TNC trips per passenger forecast presented in Figure 3-7. Read the entire page →
From page 41... ... Estimating Future Parking Facility Needs 41 Source: InterVISTAS (airport not noted due to non-disclosure agreement) Read the entire page →
From page 42... ... 42 Rethinking Airport Parking Facilities to Protect and Enhance Non-Aeronautical Revenue design day demand. The circulation allowance can be reduced in a parking facility that has (or will have) Read the entire page →

From page 20...

... 20 Estimating Future Parking Facility Needs Together with Chapter 2, this chapter addresses the question, "What, methods are there to forecast future parking demands given the ongoing and future uncertainty regarding passenger propensity to park? " As described in Chapter 2, TNCs and other services have gradually increased their share of the airport ground access market.