A Satellite Account to Measure the Retail Transformation Organizational, Conceptual, and Data Foundations (2021) / Chapter Skim
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5 Recommendations for a Retail Satellite Account
5 Recommendations for a Retail Satellite Account
Pages 89-102
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From page 89... ...
to develop a labor productivity satellite account that will enable a fuller understanding and better measurement of the transformation of retail trade. Within this supplementary satellite account, BLS can begin to develop and experiment with new measures, which could feature the following: • Alternative concepts of output for retail trade, such as gross margins and value-added, that better measure the output and productivity 89
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MOTIVATION AND OVERARCHING RECOMMENDATIONS The statement of task asks the panel to evaluate changes in the retail trade landscape, assess how they are impacting measures of employment and productivity in retail-related industries, and determine whether and how a satellite account could be designed to capture this retail transformation. The panel's evaluation of the changes in retail trade industries is presented in Chapter 2, along with a discussion of the measurement challenges this transformation poses (Conclusions 2-1 and 2-2)
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) ,1 and BEA's Integrated BEA GDP-BLS Productivity Account.2 RECOMMENDATION 1: The Bureau of Labor Statistics should develop a satellite account for an expanded retail trade sector in collaboration with the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau.
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DESIGN OF A SATELLITE ACCOUNT (SPECIFICATIONS) Road Map to a Retail Trade Satellite Account The panel proposes that the satellite account be based on the concept of a central account with modules for experimentation to address important side questions, data issues, and subjects on which it is difficult coming to a consensus.
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industry accounts and the BLS-BEA Integrated Labor Productivity Account to see what insights these might provide about the retail sector and about feasible fixes. The project should provide a set of estimates in a central module, but also a set of submodules to investigate important side questions or alternative measures.
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. Because purchases are not published for as many detailed NAICS codes in retail trades as are sales, gross margin is similarly available for fewer detailed NAICS codes.
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These issues are key not only to measuring labor productivity but to understanding the impact of the retail trade transformation on productivity, automation, employment, the distribution of income, and the offshoring of jobs. However, additional work is needed to better evaluate the changes in the retail-related labor force and the skills needed.
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Modules could be used to experiment with quality-adjusted price indexes that provide a measure of the real output and productivity of retail trade based on the characteristics of today's "transformed" retail trade industry. A satellite account might incorporate modules to address products that cross the boundary between goods and services.
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There are data gaps and data issues associated with the Census Bureau's economic surveys, with the BLS employment surveys, and some errors in productivity result from the use of separate business registers by BLS and Census. On a more forward-looking note, a study using microdata at the Census Bureau could help define the scope of the project, and identifying and using alternative new data sources might help improve timeliness and detail.
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Improved source data are needed to make substantive progress on measuring the transformation of retail trade. Data Gaps for Output-Related Data (Census Bureau)
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. Including new questions in ARTS and in the retail trade census could result in better integration between ARTS (which provides gross margins and operating expenses at the enterprise level with little industry/product detail)
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Labor input and price deflators are measured through BLS surveys. The two agencies use separate business registers with separate classifications of business establishments by NAICS code as sampling frames for their surveys.
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Better Defining the Retail-Related Sector To better understand the changes in retail-related industries, a collaborative effort between BLS, BEA, and Census Bureau staff could make use 5 Changes in access to tax data are required for BEA and BLS, not because BEA or BLS needs direct access to tax data, but because the Census business register is built on IRS data and some of the Census data directly use tax data or are considered to be "comingled" with tax data.
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The panel has identified the following data issues that need to be addressed, but others will arise during the course of the study. Individual projects include: Filling data gaps in the Economic Census and Annual Economic Surveys that relate to the calculation of gross margins, value added, and the contribution of aux iliaries; identifying data to estimate the split in hours worked between retail-related and nonretail-related for retail-related service industries; correcting for differences in numerator and denominator of productiv ity caused by the use of different business registers and classifications; and exploring the use of private-sector data -- such as scanner data, bankcard data, and payroll processing data -- to improve the timeli ness and detail provided in the account.
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