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Pathways to Discovery in Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 2020s (2023) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix O: Independent Technical, Risk, and Cost Evaluation
Pages 549-555

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From page 549...
... The purpose of this appendix is to describe the Aerospace Corporation's TRACE process and how TRACE results were managed and considered by the survey. The TRACE provided broad guidance to the program panels in the form of a forward-looking assessment of potential technical risks and likely cost and schedule boxes associated with a mission concept, but not definitive cost or schedule estimates.
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From page 550...
... The details of the Aerospace Corporation process have been captured in multiple reports and presentations, including The Space Science Decadal Surveys: Lessons Learned and Best Practices2 and "CATE Overview: Astro2020 Large Mission Concepts."3 Highlights of the TRACE process included using Aerospace Corporation proprietary models and databases, validated through multiple processes, including comparisons to historical implementations, discussed below. Threats and risks were evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations.
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From page 551...
... Results included technical risk ratings, power and mass margins, and other risk data. Cost histograms were presented to compare costs developed using a range of independent cost estimating methods, including classical estimating methods, risk estimating programs (e.g., SEER, MICM, NICM, MOCET, FRISK, etc.6)
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From page 552...
... SYSTEM ENGINEERING, TOP RISKS/ CONCERNS EVALUATE PROGRAMMATIC PROGRAM RISKS & COST TECHNOLOGY REVIEW THREATS FINAL TRACE RESPONSES DEVELOPMENT PANEL WHITE PROBABILISTIC ITEMS COST & USING ESTIMATES, AS FEEDBACK PAPERS AND COST-RISK SCHEDULE MULTIPLE APPLICABLE: KEY COST ELEMENT AND MISSION • INSTRUMENTS ANALYSIS RISK ANALOGIES COMPARISON ITERATION CONCEPTS & SPACECRAFT ESTIMATE AND • TECHNOLOGY (GROUND: CONSTRUCTION MODELS DEVELOPMENT ONLY) • PHASE E COSTS • LAUNCH VEHICLE COSTS SCHEDULE & COST • PHASE A COSTS THREATS • PROJECT PHASE COMPLETION COST RISK ANALYSIS S-CURVE SCHEDULE S-CURVE FIGURE O.3 TRACE process and products.
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From page 553...
... It should be emphasized that the "increased projected costs" in the figure reflects the differences between the TRACE total mission cost estimates at 70 percent probability and the project total mission cost estimates. The differences in projected growth assigned to ground versus space concepts were generally attributable to technology maturity gaps and the demonstrated cost and scope growth challenges faced by early-phase projects.
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From page 554...
... 10 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Less mature technologies/greater technical risk Technology Risk (Figure of Merit) FIGURE O.5 Correlation of TRACE "look forward" to technical risk.
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From page 555...
... , where • TechFOM = Technology Risk FOM • Rhigh, Rmedium-high, Rmedium, Rmedium-low, and Rlow = technology risk rating assigned by Aerospace = number of major program risks in this risk category × risk multiple, where -- High-risk multiple = 5 -- Medium-high-risk multiple = 4 -- Medium-risk multiple = 3 -- Medium-low-risk multiple = 2 -- Low-risk multiple = 1 • TRL3, TRL4, TRL5, and TRL6 = number of technology categories identified by the project at these TRL levels × TRL risk multiplier, where -- TRL 3 multiplier = 9 -- TRL 4 multiplier = 3 -- TRL 5 multiplier = 2 -- TRL 6 multiplier = 1 • TRL3time, TRL4time, and TRL5time = total length of time, in years as defined by the projects for a technology to mature to the next level. As an example, if a project defined two major development areas, one currently at TRL 6 and rated a medium risk by the Aerospace Corporation, and the other at TRL 3 and rated a medium-low risk by the Aerospace Corporation, but requiring 2 years each to reach TRL 4, TRL 5, and TRL6, the project TechFOM = 61.
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Key Terms

  • technical risk
  • technical risks
  • aerospace corporation
  • cost growth
  • mission concepts

  • trace results
  • trace process
  • cost estimates
  • projected cost
  • technology risk

  • cost model
  • program panel
  • risk rating
  • risk analysis
  • estimation tool

  • decadal survey
  • technology definition
  • trace evaluation
  • programmatic risk
  • independent assessment

  • science decadal
  • space science
  • estimating methods
  • instrument cost
  • project cost

  • mission cost
  • project estimates
  • total mission
  • percent probability
  • cost estimation


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