Understanding and Communicating Reliability of Crash Prediction Models (2021) / Chapter Skim
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15 Chapter 2. Survey of Practitioners Initially, the project team envisioned gathering the NCHRP Project 17-78 panel's opinion on the model and application-related factors.
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16 Potential Concerns in Applying CPMs When you use a CPM to what level does each of these potential issues concern you? "Concern" in this usage refers to your level of trust in the results of the CPM predictions for your own use as well as your concerns about the ease of communicating the reliability and results of the CPM to your colleagues, managers, and the public. Some of these potential concerns may not be applicable to you because your data does not present that type of concern or you have other ways of handling it. In those cases, mark your answer as "Not a concern".
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17 Table 3. Results of Practitioner Survey.
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18 Answers: The biggest difficulty is explaining what a CPM is and why one would use a CPM instead of pure naive prediction. If they do accept it, they tend to overrate the reliability of the CPM.
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