Safety Prediction Models for Six-Lane and One-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials (2022) / Chapter Skim
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174 APPENDIX A Proposed Revision to Chapter 12 of the AASHTO Highway Safety Manual -- Predictive Method for Urban and Suburban Arterials 12.1.
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175 The predictive models used within Chapter 12 predictive method are described in detail in Section 12.3. The predictive models used in Chapter 12 to predict average crash frequency, Npredicted, are of the general form shown in Equations 12-1 and 12-2.
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176 The terms "highway" and "road" are used interchangeably in this chapter and apply to all urban and suburban arterials independent of official state or local highway designation. Classifying an area as urban, suburban, or rural is subject to the roadway characteristics, surrounding population and land uses and is at the user's discretion.
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177 These specific site types are defined as follows: Two-lane undivided arterial (2U) -- a roadway consisting of two lanes with a continuous cross-section providing two directions of travel in which the lanes are not physically separated by either distance or a barrier.
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178 The predictive models for roadway segments estimate the predicted average frequency of crashes occurring outside the limits of intersections that are non-intersection-related. The roadway segment predictive models estimate crashes that would occur regardless of the presence of the intersection.
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179 Nbrz = predicted average crash frequency of collision type z (z = mv, sv, nondwy, or dwy) for an individual roadway segment; Nspf rs z = predicted average crash frequency of collision type z (z = mv, sv, nondwy, or dwy)
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180 Where: Nbrz = predicted average crash frequency of collision type z (z = mv or sv for intersections of two-way arterials with five or fewer lanes) for an individual intersection; Nspf int z = predicted average crash frequency of collision type z (z = mv or sv for intersections of two-way arterials with five or fewer lanes)
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181 Figure 12-1. The HSM Predictive Method Define roadway limits and facility type.
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182 Step 1 -- Define the limits of the roadway and facility types in the study network, facility, or site for which the expected average crash frequency, severity, and collision types are to be estimated. The predictive method can be undertaken for a roadway network, a facility, or an individual site.
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183 one-way road (and the minor road as the two-way road) regardless of the AADTs.
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184 For Two-Way Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes Length of roadway segment (miles) AADT (vehicles per day)
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185 Number of through lanes Width of right shoulder (feet) Presence/type of on-street parking (parallel vs.
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186 Number of approaches from which U-turn operation is prohibited (0, 1, 2, 3, or 4) (signalized intersections only)
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187 occur. Such crashes are used in the EB Method together with the predicted average crash frequency for the roadway segment.
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188 CMFs, engineering judgment is required to assess the interrelationships and/or independence of individual elements or treatments being considered for implementation within the same project. All CMFs used in Chapter 12 have the same base conditions as the SPFs used in Chapter 12 (i.e., when the specific site has the same condition as the SPF base condition, the CMF value for that condition is 1.00)
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189 Step 15 -- Apply the project level EB Method (if the site-specific EB Method is not applicable)
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190 distributions can benefit from being updated based on local data as part of the calibration process presented in Part C, Appendix A.1.1. 12.5 ROADWAY SEGMENTS AND INTERSECTIONS Section 12.4 provides an explanation of the predictive method.
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191 For Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes AADT (vehicles/day) Number of through lanes Presence of a center TWLTL Presence/type of median Median width (feet)
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192 Lane width (feet)
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193 Table 12-2. Safety Performance Functions included in Chapter 12 Chapter 12 SPFs for Urban and Suburban Arterials SPF Components by Collision Type SPF Equations, Tables, and Figures Two-way roadway segments with five or fewer lanes multiple-vehicle nondriveway collisions Equations 12-12, 12-13, 12-14; Table 12-3, Table 12-4; Figure 12-3 multiple-vehicle driveway-related collisions Equations 12-15, 12-16, 12-17; Table 12-5; Figure 12-4, Figure 12-5, Figure 12-6, Figure 127, Figure 12-8 single-vehicle crashes Equations 12-18, 12-19, 12-20; Table 12-6, Table 12-7; Figure 12-9 Two-way roadway segments with six or more lanes total multiple-vehicle collisions (drivewayrelated and nondriveway)
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194 12.6.1. Safety Performance Functions for Urban and Suburban Arterial Roadway Segments The predictive model for estimating average crash frequency on a particular urban or suburban arterial roadway segment was presented in Equations 12-3 through 12-6.
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196 Figure 12-3. Graphical Form of the SPF for Multiple-Vehicle Nondriveway Collisions on Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes (from Equation 12-12 and Table 12-3)
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197 Table 12-4. Distribution of Multiple-Vehicle Nondriveway Collisions by Manner of Collision for Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes Proportion of Crashes by Severity Level for Specific Roadway Types 2U 3T 4U 4D 5T Manner of Collision FI PDO FI PDO FI PDO FI PDO FI PDO Rear-end collision 0.730 0.778 0.845 0.842 0.511 0.506 0.832 0.662 0.846 0.651 Head-on collision 0.068 0.004 0.034 0.020 0.077 0.004 0.020 0.007 0.021 0.004 Angle collision 0.085 0.079 0.069 0.020 0.181 0.130 0.040 0.036 0.050 0.059 Sideswipe, same direction 0.015 0.031 0.001 0.078 0.093 0.249 0.050 0.223 0.061 0.248 Sideswipe, opposite direction 0.073 0.055 0.017 0.020 0.082 0.031 0.010 0.001 0.004 0.009 Other multiple-vehicle collisions 0.029 0.053 0.034 0.020 0.056 0.080 0.048 0.071 0.018 0.029 Source: HSIS data for Washington (2002-2006)
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198 Other driveways Major driveways are those that serve sites with 50 or more parking spaces. Minor driveways are those that serve sites with less than 50 parking spaces.
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199 Figure 12-4. Graphical Form of the SPF for Multiple-Vehicle Driveway-Related Collisions on Two-Lane Undivided Arterials Roadway Segments (2U)
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200 Figure 12-6. Graphical Form of the SPF for Multiple-Vehicle Driveway-Related Collisions on Four-Lane Undivided Arterial Roadway Segments (4U)
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201 Figure 12-8. Graphical Form of the SPF for Multiple-Vehicle Driveway-Related Collisions on Five-Lane Arterial Roadway Segments Including a Center TWLTLane (5T)
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202 Table 12-6. SPF Coefficients for Single-Vehicle Crashes on Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes Coefficients Used in Equation 12-18 Intercept AADT Overdispersion Parameter Road Type (a)
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203 Equation 12-18 is first applied to determine Nspf rs sv using the coefficients for total crashes in Table 12-6. Nspf rs sv is then divided into components by severity level; Nspf rs sv(FI)
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204 Table 12-8. SPF Coefficients for Multiple-Vehicle Collisions on Roadway Segments with Six or More Lanes (for use in Equations 12-21 and 12-22)
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205 Table 12-9. Distribution of Multiple-Vehicle Collisions by Manner of Collision for Roadway Segments with Six or More Lanes Proportion of Crashes by Severity Level for Specific Roadway Types 6U 6D 7T 8D Manner of Collision FI PDO FI PDO FI PDO FI PDO Rear-end collision 0.752 0.586 0.769 0.591 0.69 4 0.588 0.746 0.647 Head-on collision 0.037 0.008 0.012 0.012 0.03 4 0.012 0.006 0.000 Angle collision 0.064 0.052 0.091 0.081 0.14 8 0.092 0.147 0.093 Sideswipe, same direction 0.083 0.302 0.087 0.262 0.07 2 0.255 0.073 0.236 Sideswipe, opposite direction 0.028 0.005 0.011 0.020 0.02 0 0.024 0.011 0.012 Other multiple-vehicle collisions 0.037 0.046 0.030 0.033 0.03 1 0.029 0.017 0.012 Source: HSIS data for California (2006-2010)
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206 Figure 12-11. Graphical Form of the SPF for Single-Vehicle Crashes on Roadway Segments with Six or More Lanes (from Equation 12-23 and Table 12-10)
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207 Multiple-Vehicle Collisions The SPF for multiple-vehicle collisions on roadway segments is applied using Equation 12-21. Table 12-12 presents the values of the coefficients a and b used in Equation 12-21 for each roadway type.
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208 The proportions in Table 12-13 are used to separate Nspf rs mv(FI)
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209 Figure 12-13. Graphical Form of the SPF for Single-Vehicle Crashes on One-Way Roadway Segments (from Equation 12-23 and Table 12-10)
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210 Table 12-16 presents the values of fpedr for use in Equation 12-24. All vehicle-pedestrian collisions are considered to be FI crashes.
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211 Table 12-17. Bicycle Crash Adjustment Factors for Roadway Segments Bicycle Crash Adjustment Factor (fbiker)
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212 Four-leg intersections with stop control on minor-road approaches (4ST) Four-leg signalized intersections (4SG)
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213 12.6.2.3 and 12.6.2.4 provide the SPFs for predicting vehicle-pedestrian and vehicle-bicycle collisions for all intersection types.
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214 Figure 12-14. Graphical Form of the SPF for Intersection-Related Multiple-Vehicle Collisions at 3ST Intersections of Two-Way Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (from Equation 12-26 and Table 12-20)
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215 Figure 12-16. Graphical Form of the SPF for Multiple-Vehicle Collisions at 4ST Intersections of Two-Way Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (from Equation 12-26 and Table 12-20)
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216 Equation 12-26 is first applied to determine Nspf int mv using the coefficients for total crashes in Table 12-20. Nspf int mv is then divided into components by crash severity level, Nspf int mv(FI)
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217 Table 12-22. SPF Coefficients for Single-Vehicle Crashes at 2×2 Intersections with Five or Fewer Lanes Coefficients Used in Equation 12-29 Intercept AADTmaj AADTmin Overdispersion Parameter Intersection Type (a)
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218 Figure 12-19. Graphical Form of the SPF for Intersection-Related Single-Vehicle Crashes at 3SG Intersections of TwoWay Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (from Equation 12-29 and Table 12-22)
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219 Figure 12-21. Graphical Form of the SPF for Intersection-Related Single-Vehicle Crashes at 4SG Intersections of Two-Way Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (from Equation 12-29 and Table 12-22)
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220 Table 12-23. Distribution of Single-Vehicle Crashes by Manner of Collision for 2×2 Intersections with Five or Fewer Lanes Proportion of Crashes by Severity Level for Specific Intersection Types 3ST 3SG 4ST 4SG Manner of Collision FI PDO FI PDO FI PDO FI PDO Collision with parked vehicle 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 Collision with animal 0.003 0.018 0.001 0.003 0.001 0.026 0.002 0.002 Collision with fixed object 0.762 0.834 0.653 0.895 0.679 0.847 0.744 0.870 Collision with other object 0.090 0.092 0.091 0.069 0.089 0.070 0.072 0.070 Other single-vehicle collisions 0.039 0.023 0.045 0.018 0.051 0.007 0.040 0.023 Noncollision crashes 0.105 0.030 0.209 0.014 0.179 0.049 0.141 0.034 Source: HSIS data for California (2002-2006)
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221 Table 12-24. SPF Coefficients for Multiple-Vehicle and Single-Vehicle Collisions at 2×2 Intersections with Six or More Lanes, 1×2, and 1×1 intersections Coefficients Used in Equation 12-33 and 12-34 Intersection Type Intersection Category a b c d FI Crashes 1×1 -9.22 0.65 0.11 0.50 3ST 1×2 -9.12 0.65 0.11 0.50 2×2 with 6 or more lanes -15.03 1.09 0.53 1.54 1×1 -11.31 0.59 0.56 1.05 3SG 1×2 -11.21 0.59 0.56 1.05 2×2 with 6 or more lanes -7.11 0.65 0.16 1.93 1×1 -10.93 0.67 0.41 1.88 4ST 1×2 -10.83 0.67 0.41 1.88 2×2 with 6 or more lanes -10.08 0.58 0.60 1.67 1×1 -5.57 0.18 0.37 0.75 4SG 1×2 -5.47 0.18 0.37 0.75 2×2 with 6 or more lanes -4.63 0.36 0.27 1.77 PDO Crashes 1×1 -17.99 1.53 0.31 0.97 3ST 1×2 -17.60 1.53 0.31 0.97 2×2 with 6 or more lanes -14.97 1.35 0.15 1.34 1×1 -7.46 0.49 0.35 1.11 3SG 1×2 -7.07 0.49 0.35 1.11 2×2 with 6 or more lanes -5.07 0.47 0.14 1.00 1×1 -12.46 0.86 0.51 1.04 4ST 1×2 -12.06 0.86 0.51 1.04 2×2 with 6 or more lanes -12.01 0.67 0.75 0.88 1×1 -6.31 0.38 0.36 0.50 4SG 1×2 -5.92 0.38 0.36 0.50 2×2 with 6 or more lanes -3.77 0.27 0.27 1.01
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222 Figure 12-22. Graphical form of the SPF for Intersection-Related Multiple-Vehicle and Single-Vehicle Crashes at 3ST Intersections of Two-Way Arterials with Six or More Lanes (from Equation 12-33 and Table 12-24)
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223 Figure 12-24. Graphical Form of the SPF for Intersection-Related Multiple-Vehicle and Single-Vehicle Crashes at 4ST Intersections of Two-Way Arterials with Six or More Lanes (from Equation 12-33 and Table 12-24)
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224 The proportions in Table 12-25 are used to separate Nbi(FI)
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225 Figure 12-27. Graphical Form of the SPF for Intersection-Related Multiple-Vehicle and Single-Vehicle Crashes at 1×2 3SG Intersections (from Equation 12-33 and Table 12-24)
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226 Figure 12-29. Graphical Form of the SPF for Intersection-Related Multiple-Vehicle and Single-Vehicle Crashes at 1×2 4SG Intersections (from Equation 12-33 and Table 12-24)
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227 ) ( 321 ppppedbasepedi × CMF × CMFCMF × = NN (12-35)
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228 Table 12-27. SPF Coefficients for Vehicle-Pedestrian Collisions at Signalized Intersections Coefficients Used in Equation 12-36 Overdispersion Parameter Intercept AADTtotal AADTlow/AADThigh PedVol nlanesx Intersection Type (a)
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229 12.6.2.4. SPFs for Vehicle-Bicycle Collisions on Arterial Intersections The number of vehicle-bicycle collisions per year for an intersection is estimated using Equation 12-38.
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230 the specific SPFs which they apply to are summarized in Table 12-31. As Table 12-31 indicates, each CMF may be applicable to certain categories of roadway segments or intersections.
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231 12.7.1. Crash Modification Factors for Roadway Segments The effects of individual geometric design and traffic control features of urban and suburban arterial roadway segments are represented in the predictive models by CMFs.
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232 For roadway segments with five or fewer lanes, the CMF for roadside fixed objects has been adapted from the work of Zeeger and Cynecki (16) on predicting utility pole crashes and is determined using Equation 12-40.
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233 Table 12-34. Proportion of Fixed-Object Collisions for Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes Roadway Segment Type Proportion of Fixed-Object Collisions (pfo)
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234 CMF4r -- Lighting The CMF for lighting is applicable only to roadway segments with five or fewer lanes. The base condition for lighting is the absence of roadway segment lighting.
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236 to multiple-vehicle and single-vehicle crashes. As the coefficient values in Table 12-37 suggest, presence of median barriers is expected to reduce the average crash frequency of multiple-vehicle collisions while increasing the average crash frequency of single-vehicle crashes.
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237 10 12 mndna L rCMF = e − (12-49) Where: CMF12r = crash modification factor for the effect of minor driveways; and nmnd = number of minor driveways within the roadway segment.
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238 Table 12-40. Crash Modification Factor (CMF1i)
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239 are identified by marking or signing. The CMF is not applicable to long tapers, flares, or paved shoulders that may be used informally by right-turn traffic.
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240 Table 12-43. Nighttime Crash Proportions for Unlighted Intersections Proportion of Crashes that Occur at Night Intersection Type pni 3ST 0.238 4ST 0.229 3SG and 4SG 0.235 CMF6i -- Red Light Cameras The CMF for red light cameras is applicable only to signalized intersections (of any category)
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242 The regression coefficient of Equation 12-58 is provided in Table 12-44. Table 12-44.
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243 Table 12-45. Crash Modification Factor (CMF1p)
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244 12.8. SEVERITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS The SDFs are regression models for estimating the predicted average crash frequency for the following severity levels: fatal (K)
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245 I8D = indicator variable for eight-lane divided highway (= 1 if 8-lane divided, 0 otherwise) ; and a, b, c, d, e = regression coefficients.
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246 a, b, c, d, e = regression coefficients. The first term in Equation 12-69 estimates the probability of a fatal or incapacitating injury crash.
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247 The sign of a regression coefficient in Table 12-50 indicates the change in the proportion of crashes associated with a change in the corresponding variable. For example, the negative coefficient associated with right-turn-on-red prohibition indicates that the proportion of fatal and incapacitating injury crashes decreases when right-turn movements are prohibited on red.
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249 12.10. INTERIM PREDICTIVE METHOD FOR ROUNDABOUTS Sufficient research has not yet been conducted to form the basis for development of a predictive method for roundabouts.
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250 of an individual intersection or homogenous roadway segment. The facility is divided into these individual sites in Step 5 of the predictive method.
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251 The Question What is the predicted average crash frequency of the roadway segment for a particular year? The Facts 1.5-mi length 11,000 veh/day 1.0 mi of parallel on-street commercial parking on each side of street 30 driveways (10 minor commercial, 2 major residential, 15 minor residential, 3 minor industrial/institutional)
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252 ( ) spf rs nondwy totalN = )
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253 From Table 12-5, for a three-lane arterial the proportion of driveway-related collisions that involve fatalities and injuries, 243.0f =dwy .
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254 On-Street Parking (CMF1r) CMF1r is calculated from Equation 12-39 as follows: 1 1 ( 1 0)
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255 Automated Speed Enforcement (CMF5r) Since there is no automated speed enforcement in Sample Problem 1, CMF5r = 1.00 (i.e., the base condition for CMF5r is the absence of automated speed enforcement)
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256 biker br bikerN = N × f From Table 12-17, for a posted speed greater than 30 mph on a three-lane arterial, the bicycle crash adjustment factor, f 0.007biker = . bikerN = 6.883 × 0.007 = 0.048 crashes/year Step 11 -- Multiply the result obtained in Step 10 by the appropriate calibration factor.
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257 Worksheet SP1J (Corresponds to Worksheet A-1J) -- Vehicle-Bicycle Collisions for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterial Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes Worksheet SP1K (Corresponds to Worksheet A-1K)
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258 Worksheet SP1B -- Crash Modification Factors for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes In Step 10 of the predictive method, crash modification factors are applied to account for the effects of site specific geometric design and traffic control devices. Section 12.7 presents the tables and equations necessary for determining the CMF values.
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259 Fatal-and-injury crashes (Column 2) Property-damage-only crashes (Column 4)
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260 Worksheet SP1F -- Multiple-Vehicle Driveway-Related Collisions by Severity Level for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes The initial average crash frequency of multiple-vehicle driveway-related crashes from Column 5 of Worksheet SP1E is entered in Column 2. This value is multiplied by the proportion of crashes by severity level (Column 3)
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261 Worksheet SP1H -- Single-Vehicle Collisions by Manner of Collision for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes Worksheet SP1H presents the default proportions for manner of collision (from Table 12-7) by crash severity level as follows: Fatal-and-injury crashes (Column 2)
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262 Worksheet SP1J -- Vehicle-Bicycle Collisions for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes The predicted average crash frequency of multiple-vehicle nondriveway, multiple-vehicle driveway-related, and singlevehicle crashes from Worksheets SP1C, SP1F, and SP1G are entered into Columns 2, 3, and 4, respectively. These values are summed in Column 5.
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263 Worksheet SP1K. Crash Severity*
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264 Worksheet SP1L. Summary Results for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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265 Steps Step 1 through 8 To determine the predicted average crash frequency of the roadway segment in Sample Problem 2, only Steps 9 through 11 are conducted. No other steps are necessary because only one roadway segment is analyzed for one year, and the EB Method is not applied.
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266 Single-Vehicle Crashes The SPF for single-vehicle crashes for the roadway segment is calculated from Equation 12-18 and Table 12-6 as follows: brsvN = )
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267 Automated Speed Enforcement (CMF5r) Since there is no automated speed enforcement in Sample Problem 2, CMF5r = 1.00 (i.e., the base condition for CMF5r is the absence of automated speed enforcement)
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268 biker br bikerN = N × f From Table 12-17, for a posted of 30 mph on a four-lane divided arterial, the bicycle crash adjustment factor, f 0.013biker = . bikerN = 3.158 × 0.013 = 0.041 crashes/year Step 11 -- Multiply the result obtained in Step 10 by the appropriate calibration factor.
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269 Worksheet SP2J (Corresponds to Worksheet A-1J) -- Vehicle-Bicycle Collisions for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterial Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes Worksheet SP2K (Corresponds to Worksheet A-1K)
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270 Worksheet SP2B -- Crash Modification Factors for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes In Step 10 of the predictive method, crash modification factors are applied to account for the effects of site specific geometric design and traffic control devices. Section 12.7 presents the tables and equations necessary for determining the CMF values.
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271 Using the default proportions, the predicted average crash frequency for multiple-vehicle nondriveway crashes by manner of collision is presented in Columns 3 (FI)
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272 Worksheet SP2F -- Multiple-Vehicle Driveway-Related Collisions by Severity Level for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes The initial average crash frequency of multiple-vehicle driveway-related crashes from Column 5 of Worksheet SP2E is entered in Column 2. This value is multiplied by the proportion of crashes by severity level (Column 3)
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273 Worksheet SP2H -- Single-Vehicle Collisions by Manner of Collision for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes Worksheet SP2H presents the default proportions for manner of collision (from Table 12-7) by crash severity level as follows: Fatal-and-injury crashes (Column 2)
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274 Worksheet SP2J -- Vehicle-Bicycle Collisions for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes The predicted average crash frequency of multiple-vehicle nondriveway, multiple-vehicle driveway-related, and singlevehicle crashes from Worksheets SP2C, SP2F, and SP2G are entered into Columns 2, 3, and 4, respectively. These values are summed in Column 5.
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275 Worksheet SP2K. Crash Severity*
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276 Worksheet SP2L. Summary Results for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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277 Steps Step 1 through 8 To determine the predicted average crash frequency of the roadway segment in Sample Problem 3, only Steps 9 through 11 are conducted. No other steps are necessary because only one roadway segment is analyzed for one year, and the EB Method is not applied.
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278 Step 10 -- Multiply the result obtained in Step 9 by the appropriate CMFs to adjust base conditions to site specific geometric design and traffic control features. Each CMF used in the calculation of the predicted average crash frequency of the roadway segment is calculated below: Roadside Fixed Objects (CMF2r)
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279 Major Industrial Driveways (CMF10r) CMF10r is calculated from Equation 12-47 as follows: 10rCMF = 0.0107( 1)
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280 brsvN = ( ) spf rs sv comb svN × CMF = 0.841 × 1.015 = 0.854 crashes/year Vehicle-Pedestrian and Vehicle-Bicycle Collisions The predicted average crash frequency of an individual roadway segment (excluding vehicle-pedestrian and vehiclebicycle collisions)
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281 WORKSHEETS The step-by-step instructions above were provided to illustrate the predictive method for calculating the predicted average crash frequency for a roadway segment. To apply the predictive method steps to multiple segments, a series of 10 worksheets are provided for determining the predicted average crash frequency.
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282 Worksheet SP3A. General Information and Input Data for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Six or More Lanes General Information Location Information Analyst Roadway Agency or Company Roadway Section Date Performed Jurisdiction Analysis Year Input Data Base Conditions Site Conditions Road type (6U, 6D, 7T, 8D)
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283 Worksheet SP3C -- Multiple-Vehicle Collisions by Severity Level for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Six or More Lanes The SPF for multiple-vehicle collisions along the roadway segment in Sample Problem 3 is calculated using Equation 12-22 and entered into Column 4 of Worksheet SP3C. The coefficients for the SPF and the overdispersion parameter associated with the SPF are entered into Columns 2 and 3; however, the overdispersion parameter is not needed for Sample Problem 3 (as the EB Method is not utilized)
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284 Worksheet SP3E -- Single-Vehicle Collisions by Severity Level for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Six or More Lanes The SPF for single-vehicle crashes along the roadway segment in Sample Problem 3 is calculated using Equation 12-23 and entered into Column 4 of Worksheet SP3E. The coefficients for the SPF and the overdispersion parameter associated with the SPF are entered into Columns 2 and 3; however, the overdispersion parameter is not needed for Sample Problem 3 (as the EB Method is not utilized)
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285 Worksheet SP3G -- Vehicle-Pedestrian Collisions for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Six or More Lanes The predicted average crash frequency of multiple-vehicle and single-vehicle crashes from Worksheets SP3C and SP3E are entered into Columns 2 and 3, respectively. These values are summed in Column 4.
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286 Worksheet SP3I. Crash Severity*
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287 12.14.4. Sample Problem 4 The Site/Facility A three-lane one-way urban arterial roadway segment.
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288 Multiple-Vehicle Collisions The SPF for multiple-vehicle collisions for the roadway segment is calculated from Equation 12-21 and Table 12-8 as follows: spf rs mvN = )
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289 Since 0.2 and 0.1 mile of on-street parking is provided on each side of the road, the sum of curb length with on-street parking for both sides of the road combined, L 0.3pk = . 375.0 4.0 3.05.0 =×=pkp From Table 12-32, f 1.359pk = .
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From page 290... ...
290 Right Shoulder Width (CMF13r) CMF13r is calculated from Equation 12-50 as follows: 13rCMF = 0.0201( 4)
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From page 291... ...
291 The SPF for vehicle-bicycle collisions is calculated from Equation 12-25 as follows: biker br bikerN = N × f From Table 12-17, for a posted speed of 30 mph on a three-lane one-way arterial, the bicycle crash adjustment factor, f 0.011biker = . bikerN = 3.671 × 0.011 = 0.040 crashes/year Step 11 -- Multiply the result obtained in Step 10 by the appropriate calibration factor.
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From page 292... ...
292 Worksheet SP4H(Corresponds to Worksheet C-1H) -- Vehicle-Bicycle Collisions for One-Way Urban and Suburban Arterial Roadway Segments Worksheet SP4I (Corresponds to Worksheet C-1I)
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From page 293... ...
293 Worksheet SP4B. Crash Modification Factors for One-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments Collision Type Multiple-Vehicle (mv)
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From page 294... ...
294 Worksheet SP4D. Multiple-Vehicle Collisions by Manner of Collision for One-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments (1)
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From page 295... ...
295 Worksheet SP4F. Single-Vehicle Collisions by Manner of Collision for One-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments (1)
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From page 296... ...
296 Worksheet SP4I -- Crash Severity* Type Distribution for One-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments Worksheet SP4I provides a summary of all manners of collision by severity level.
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From page 297... ...
297 Worksheet SP4J -- Summary Results for One-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments Worksheet SP4J presents a summary of the results. Using the roadway segment length and the AADT, the worksheet presents the crash rate in miles per year (Column 4)
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From page 298... ...
298 Step 9 -- For the selected site, determine and apply the appropriate safety performance function (SPF) for the site's facility type and traffic control features.
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From page 300... ...
300 brmvN = spf rs mv combN × CMF = 1.892 × 0.67 = 1.268 crashes/year brsvN = spf rs sv combN × CMF = 0.349 × 0.67 = 0.234 crashes/year Vehicle-Pedestrian and Vehicle-Bicycle Collisions The predicted average crash frequency of an intersection (excluding vehicle-pedestrian and vehicle-bicycle collisions) , Nbi, must be calculated in order to determine vehicle-pedestrian and vehicle-bicycle crashes.
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From page 301... ...
301 = 1.00 × (1.502 + 0.032 + 0.024) = 1.558 crashes/year WORKSHEETS The step-by-step instructions above were provided to illustrate the predictive method for calculating the predicted average crash frequency for an intersection.
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From page 302... ...
302 Worksheet SP5A. General Information and Input Data for Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes General Information Location Information Analyst Roadway Agency or Company Intersection Date Performed Jurisdiction Analysis Year Input Data Base Conditions Site Conditions Intersection Type (3ST, 3SG, 4ST, 4SG)
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From page 303... ...
303 the predicted average crash frequency of multiple-vehicle crashes using the values in Column 6, the combined CMF in Column 7, and the calibration factor in Column 8. Worksheet SP5C.
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From page 304... ...
304 4) to assure that FI and PDO crashes sum to the total crashes as illustrated in Column 6.
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From page 305... ...
305 crash frequency of vehicle-pedestrian collisions (Column 7) is the product of Columns 4, 5, and 6.
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From page 306... ...
306 Worksheet SP5K. Crash Severity*
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From page 307... ...
307 The Question What is the predicted average crash frequency of the signalized intersection for a particular year? The Facts 4-lane divided major road 2-lane undivided minor road 1 left-turn lane on each of the two major road approaches 1 right-turn lane on each of the two major road approaches Protected/permissive left-turn signal phasing on major road AADT of major road is 15,000 veh/day AADT of minor road is 9,000 veh/day Lighting is present No approaches with prohibited right-turn-on-red Four-lane divided major road Two-lane undivided minor road Pedestrian volume is 1,500 peds/day The number of bus stops within 1,000 ft of intersection is 2 A school is present within 1,000 ft of intersection The number of alcohol establishments within 1,000 ft of intersection is 6 Assumptions Collision type distributions used are the default values from Table 12-21 and Table 12-23 and Equations 12-35 and 1238.
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From page 308... ...
308 Step 9 -- For the selected site, determine and apply the appropriate safety performance function (SPF) for the site's facility type and traffic control features.
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From page 309... ...
309 Right-Turn-on-Red (CMF4i) Since right-turn-on-red (RTOR)
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From page 310... ...
310 Vehicle-Pedestrian and Vehicle-Bicycle Collisions The SPF for vehicle-pedestrian collisions for a four-leg signalized intersection is calculated from Equation 12-35 as follows: ) ( 321 ppppedbasepedi × CMF × CMFCMF × = NN Npedbase is calculated from Equation 12-36 using the coefficients from Table 12-27.
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From page 311... ...
311 = 3.372 crashes/year WORKSHEETS The step-by-step instructions above were provided to illustrate the predictive method for calculating the predicted average crash frequency for an intersection. To apply the predictive method steps to multiple intersections, a series of 11 worksheets are provided for determining the predicted average crash frequency.
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From page 312... ...
312 Worksheet SP6A. General Information and Input Data for Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes General Information Location Information Analyst Roadway Agency or Company Intersection Date Performed Jurisdiction Analysis Year Input Data Base Conditions Site Conditions Intersection Type (3ST, 3SG, 4ST, 4SG)
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From page 313... ...
313 Worksheet SP6C. Multiple-Vehicle Collisions by Severity Level for Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 314... ...
314 the predicted average crash frequency of Single-vehicle crashes using the values in Column 6, the combined CMF in Column 7, and the calibration factor in Column 8. Worksheet SP6E.
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From page 315... ...
315 Worksheet SP6H. Crash Modification Factors for Vehicle-Pedestrian Collisions for Signalized Intersections of TwoWay Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 316... ...
316 Worksheet SP6K -- Crash Severity* Type Distribution for Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes Worksheet SP6K provides a summary of all manners of collision by severity level.
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From page 317... ...
317 Worksheet SP6L. Summary Results for Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 318... ...
318 Multiple-Vehicle and Single-Vehicle Collisions The SPF for multiple-vehicle and single-vehicle collisions for a single four-leg stop-controlled intersection is calculated from Equation 12-33 and Table 12-24 as follows: spf intN = exp ( + × ln( )
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From page 319... ...
319 U-Turn Prohibition (CMF9i) For unsignalized intersections, CMF8i = 1.00.
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From page 320... ...
320 WORKSHEETS The step-by-step instructions above were provided to illustrate the predictive method for calculating the predicted average crash frequency for an intersection. To apply the predictive method steps to multiple intersections, a series of 9 worksheets are provided for determining the predicted average crash frequency.
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From page 321... ...
321 Worksheet SP7A. General Information and Input Data for Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Six or More Lanes General Information Location Information Analyst Roadway Agency or Company Intersection Date Performed Jurisdiction Analysis Year Input Data Base Conditions Site Conditions Intersection Type (3ST, 3SG, 4ST, 4SG)
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From page 322... ...
322 in Worksheet SP7B) , and Column 6 represents the calibration factor.
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From page 323... ...
323 Worksheet SP7E. Vehicle-Pedestrian Collisions for Stop-Controlled Intersections of One-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials (1)
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From page 324... ...
324 Worksheet SP7I. Crash Severity*
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From page 325... ...
325 AADT of the two-way road is 22,000 veh/day Right-turn-on-red prohibited from the stem of the "T" intersection No channelized right turn lane No red light camera Intersection is not lighted Pedestrian volume is 800 peds/day A bus stop within 1,000 ft of intersection No school within 1,000 ft of intersection The number of alcohol sales establishments with 1,000 ft of intersection is 5 Assumptions Collision type distributions used are the default values presented in Table 12-26 and Equations 12-35 and 12-38. The calibration factor is assumed to be 1.00.
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From page 327... ...
327 The major road has three lanes whereas the minor road has four lanes. CMF7i is calculated below: CMF7i = 0.242 (3 2)
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From page 328... ...
328 The SPF for vehicle-bicycle collisions for the intersection is calculated from Equation 12-38 as follows: bikeibibikei × f = NN From Table 12-30, for a 1×2 three-leg signalized intersection, the bicycle crash adjustment factor, f 0.016bikei = . Nbikei = 6.811 × 0.016 = 0.109 crashes/year Step 11 -- Multiply the result obtained in Step 10 by the appropriate calibration factor.
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From page 329... ...
329 Details of these sample problem worksheets are provided below. Blank versions of the corresponding worksheets are provided in Appendix 12C (for one-way urban and suburban arterials)
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From page 330... ...
330 Worksheet SP8C -- Multiple-Vehicle and Single-Vehicle Collisions by Severity Level for Intersections of OneWay Urban and Suburban Arterials The SPF for multiple-vehicle and single-vehicle collisions at the intersection in Sample Problem 8 is calculated using Equation 12-33 and entered into Column 4 of Worksheet SP8C. The coefficients for the SPF and the overdispersion parameter associated with the SPF are entered into Columns 2 and 3; however, the overdispersion parameter is not needed for Sample Problem 8 (as the EB Method is not utilized)
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From page 331... ...
331 Worksheet SP8F. Crash Modification Factors for Vehicle-Pedestrian Collisions for Signalized Intersections of One-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials In Step 10 of the predictive method, crash modification factors are applied to account for the effects of site specific geometric design and traffic control devices.
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From page 332... ...
332 Worksheet SP8I -- Crash Severity* Type Distribution for Intersections of One-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials Worksheet SP8I provides a summary of all manners of collision by severity level.
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From page 333... ...
333 The Question What is the expected crash frequency of the project for a particular year incorporating both the predicted average crash frequencies from Sample Problems 1, 2, 4, and 5 and the observed crash frequencies using the site-specific EB Method? The Facts 2 roadway segments (3T segment, 4D segment)
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From page 334... ...
334 Worksheet SP9A. Predicted Crashes by Collision and Site Type and Observed Crashes Using the Site-Specific EB Method for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 335... ...
335 Multiple-Vehicle Driveway-Related Collisions Segment 1 1 0.553 1 1.10 (0.734) w = = + × Segment 2 1 0.828 1 1.39 (0.149)
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From page 336... ...
336 Column 8 -- Expected Average Crash Frequency The estimate of expected average crash frequency, Nexpected, is calculated using Equation A-4 as follows: expected predicted observed(1 ) N w N w N= × + − × Multiple-Vehicle Nondriveway Collisions Segment 1 expected 0.234 4.967 (1 0.234)
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From page 337... ...
337 Worksheet SP9C. Site-Specific EB Method Summary Results for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes Worksheet SP9C presents a summary of the results.
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From page 338... ...
338 WORKSHEETS To apply the project-level EB Method to multiple roadway segments and intersections on an urban or suburban arterial combined, three worksheets are provided for determining the expected average crash frequency. The three worksheets include: Worksheet SP10A (Corresponds to Worksheet A-4A)
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From page 340... ...
340 = 27.864 Column 11 -- w1 The weight placed on predicted crash frequency under the assumption that crashes frequencies for different roadway elements are perfectly correlated, w1, is calculated using Equation A-12 as follows: w1 = predicted 1 predicted ( ) 1 1 w total N N + = 19.7161 14.397 + = 0.597 Column 12 -- N1 The expected crash frequency based on the assumption that different roadway elements are perfectly correlated, N1, is calculated using Equation A-13 as follows: N1 = 1 predicted( total)
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From page 341... ...
341 Worksheet SP10B. Predicted Pedestrian and Bicycle Crashes for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 342... ...
342 (7) Harwood, D
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From page 343... ...
343 APPENDIX 12A -- WORKSHEETS FOR PREDICTIVE METHOD FOR TWO-WAY URBAN AND SUBURBAN ARTERIALS WITH FIVE OR FEWER LANES Worksheet A -- 1A. General Information and Input Data for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes General Information Location Information Analyst Roadway Agency or Company Roadway Section Date Performed Jurisdiction Analysis Year Input Data Base Conditions Site Conditions Road type (2U, 3T, 4U, 4D, 5T)
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From page 344... ...
344 Worksheet A -- 1B. Crash Modification Factors for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 345... ...
345 Worksheet A -- 1D. Multiple-Vehicle Nondriveway Collisions by Manner of Collision for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 346... ...
346 Worksheet A -- 1F. Multiple-Vehicle Driveway-Related Collisions by Severity Level for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 347... ...
347 Worksheet A -- 1H. Single-Vehicle Collisions by Manner of Collision for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 348... ...
348 Worksheet A -- 1K. Crash Severity*
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From page 349... ...
349 Worksheet A -- 2A. General Information and Input Data for Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes General Information Location Information Analyst Roadway Agency or Company Intersection Date Performed Jurisdiction Analysis Year Input Data Base Conditions Site Conditions Intersection Type (3ST, 3SG, 4ST, 4SG)
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From page 350... ...
350 Worksheet A -- 2B. Crash Modification Factors for Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 351... ...
351 Worksheet A -- 2D. Multiple-Vehicle Collisions by Manner of Collision for Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 352... ...
352 Worksheet A -- 2F. Single-Vehicle Collisions by Manner of Collision for Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 353... ...
353 Worksheet A -- 2I. Vehicle-Pedestrian Collisions for Signalized Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 354... ...
354 Worksheet A -- 2K. Crash Severity*
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From page 355... ...
355 Worksheet A -- 3A. Predicted Crashes by Collision and Site Type and Observed Crashes Using the Site-Specific EB Method for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 356... ...
356 Worksheet A -- 3B. Predicted Pedestrian and Bicycle Crashes for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 357... ...
357 Worksheet A -- 4A. Predicted Crashes by Collision and Site Type and Observed Crashes Using the Project-Level EB Method for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 358... ...
358 ROADWAY SEGMENTS Multiple-Vehicle Nondriveway Segment 1 -- Segment 2 -- Segment 3 -- Segment 4 -- Multiple-Vehicle Driveway-Related Segment 1 -- Segment 2 -- Segment 3 -- Segment 4 -- Single-Vehicle Segment 1 -- Segment 2 -- Segment 3 -- Segment 4 -- INTERSECTIONS Multiple-Vehicle Intersection 1 -- Intersection 2 -- Intersection 3 -- Intersection 4 -- Single-Vehicle Intersection 1 -- Intersection 2 -- Intersection 3 -- Intersection 4 -- Combined (Sum of Column)
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From page 359... ...
359 Worksheet A -- 4B. Predicted Pedestrian and Bicycle Crashes for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Five or Fewer Lanes (1)
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From page 360... ...
360 APPENDIX 12B -- WORKSHEETS FOR PREDICTIVE METHOD FOR TWO-WAY URBAN AND SUBURBAN ARTERIALS WITH SIX OR MORE LANES Worksheet B -- 1A. General Information and Input Data for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Six or More Lanes General Information Location Information Analyst Roadway Agency or Company Roadway Section Date Performed Jurisdiction Analysis Year Input Data Base Conditions Site Conditions Road type (6U, 6D, 7T, 8D)
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From page 361... ...
361 Worksheet B -- 1B. Crash Modification Factors for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Six or More Lanes Collision Type Multiple-Vehicle (mv)
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From page 362... ...
362 Worksheet B -- 1D. Multiple-Vehicle Collisions by Manner of Collision for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Six or More Lanes (1)
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From page 363... ...
363 Worksheet B -- 1F. Single-Vehicle Collisions by Manner of Collision for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Six or More Lanes (1)
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From page 364... ...
364 Worksheet B -- 1I. Crash Severity*
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From page 365... ...
365 Worksheet B -- 1J. Summary Results for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments with Six or More Lanes (1)
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From page 366... ...
366 Worksheet B -- 2B. Crash Modification Factors for Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Six or More Lanes (1)
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From page 367... ...
367 Worksheet B -- 2D. Multiple-Vehicle and Single-Vehicle Collisions by Collision Type for Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Six or More Lanes (1)
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From page 368... ...
368 Worksheet B -- 2G. Vehicle-Pedestrian Collisions for Signalized Intersections of Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Six or More Lanes (1)
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From page 369... ...
369 Worksheet B -- 2I. Crash Severity*
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From page 370... ...
370 Worksheet B -- 3A. Predicted Crashes by Collision and Site Type and Observed Crashes Using the Site-Specific EB Method for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Six or More Lanes (1)
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From page 371... ...
371 Worksheet B -- 3B. Predicted Pedestrian and Bicycle Crashes for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Six or More Lanes (1)
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From page 372... ...
372 Worksheet B -- 4A. Predicted Crashes by Collision and Site Type and Observed Crashes Using the Project-Level EB Method for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Six or More Lanes (1)
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From page 373... ...
373 Worksheet B -- 4B. Predicted Pedestrian and Bicycle Crashes for Two-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials with Six or More Lanes (1)
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From page 374... ...
374 APPENDIX 12C -- WORKSHEETS FOR PREDICTIVE METHOD FOR ONE-WAY URBAN AND SUBURBAN ARTERIALS Worksheet C -- 1A. General Information and Input Data for One-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments General Information Location Information Analyst Roadway Agency or Company Roadway Section Date Performed Jurisdiction Analysis Year Input Data Base Conditions Site Conditions Road type (2O, 3O, 4O)
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From page 375... ...
375 Worksheet C -- 1B. Crash Modification Factors for One-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments Collision Type Multiple-Vehicle (mv)
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From page 376... ...
376 Worksheet C -- 1D. Multiple-Vehicle Collisions by Manner of Collision for One-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments (1)
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From page 377... ...
377 Worksheet C -- 1F. Single-Vehicle Collisions by Manner of Collision for One-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments (1)
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From page 378... ...
378 Worksheet C -- 1I. Crash Severity*
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From page 379... ...
379 Worksheet C -- 1J. Summary Results for One-Way Urban and Suburban Roadway Segments (1)
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From page 380... ...
380 Worksheet C -- 2B. Crash Modification Factors for Intersections of One-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials (1)
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From page 381... ...
381 Worksheet C -- 2E. Vehicle-Pedestrian Collisions for Stop-Controlled Intersections of One-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials (1)
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From page 382... ...
382 Worksheet C -- 2I. Crash Severity*
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From page 383... ...
383 Worksheet C -- 2J. Summary Results for Intersections of One-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials (1)
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From page 384... ...
384 Worksheet C -- 3B. Predicted Pedestrian and Bicycle Crashes for One-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials (1)
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From page 385... ...
385 Worksheet C -- 4A. Predicted Crashes by Collision and Site Type and Observed Crashes Using the Project-Level EB Method for One-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials (1)
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From page 386... ...
386 Worksheet C -- 4B. Predicted Pedestrian and Bicycle Crashes for One-Way Urban and Suburban Arterials (1)
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Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.