Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis (2023) / Chapter Skim
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B-1 Literature Review Contents B-3 1 Introduction B-3 1.1 Identifying Documents for Review B-4 1.2 Key Findings in the Literature B-4 2 Risk and Resilience Policies in Transportation B-6 2.1 Federal Transportation Risk and Resilience Initiatives B-10 2.2 International Requirements for Risk-Based Asset Management B-11 3 Risk and Resilience Definitions B-11 3.1 Risk Definitions B-11 3.2 Resilience Definitions B-13 3.3 Relationship Between Risk and Resilience B-15 3.4 Frameworks for Risk and Resilience B-18 4 Methods of Risk and Resilience Assessment, Metrics, and Performance Indicators B-18 4.1 Risk Assessment Methodologies and Metrics B-18 4.1.1 Qualitative Risk Assessment Methods B-21 4.1.2 Quantitative Risk Assessment Methods B-24 4.1.3 Hybrid Risk Assessments Methods B-26 4.1.4 Risk Metrics B-28 4.1.5 Risk-Based Performance Measures B-30 4.2 Resilience Assessment Methodologies and Metrics B-35 5 Major Components of a Risk Assessment Methodology B-35 5.1 Methods to Identify Critical Transportation Assets B-36 5.2 Threat Assessment and Incorporation of Uncertainty B-37 5.2.1 Threat Identification B-37 5.2.2 Data Sources to Support Threat Modeling B-38 5.2.3 Types of Threat Modeling B-48 5.3 Estimating Vulnerability of Assets from Relevant Threats or Hazards B-52 5.4 Types of Consequences from Identified Threats B-55 6 Tools for Risk and Resilience Assessment B-55 6.1 Spreadsheet Models B-56 6.2 Software Tools B-58 6.3 Web-Based Application Tools B-60 6.4 Methods for Developing Recovery Strategies A P P E N D I X B
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B-2 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis B-61 6.5 Methods for Risk Management B-62 6.6 Methods to Improve System Resilience B-63 7 Tracking Mechanisms for Risk and Resilience Metrics B-63 7.1 Recurring Reports B-64 7.2 Story Maps B-64 7.3 Dashboards B-64 8 Barriers and Constraints for Implementation of Quantitative Risk and Resilience Assessment Methods
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Literature Review B-3 1 Introduction This project's primary objectives are to (1) develop a comprehensive and consistent set of risk and resilience terminology and (2)
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B-4 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis 1.2 Key Findings in the Literature The research team made the following key observations about the findings in the literature review: • In many cases, risk and resilience concepts are used interchangeably among state and local DOTs. There is a need for education to help transportation professionals understand how these two terms relate and the relevant metrics for each term.
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Literature Review B-5 details that may apply to a project contingent on several variables, primarily project cost (Caltrans 2018)
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B-6 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis • Establish a risk-based asset management plan that includes risk assessments that address current and future conditions, address reoccurring damage and the associated costs, estimate the likelihood of risks, prioritize risks, and develop a mitigation plan for the highest-priority risks [23 CFR 515.7(b)
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Literature Review B-7 Effective Date Overview Source June 27, 2016 "(a) Each State shall carry out a continuing, cooperative, and comprehensive statewide transportation planning process that provides for consideration and implementation of projects, strategies, and services that will address the following factors: … (9)
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B-8 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis economically justi ed (FHWA, Kalla, and Shepherd n.d.)
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Literature Review B-9 TAMP, defines risk, and provides guidance on how the risk element can be applied to meet risk-based TAMP requirements" (FHWA 2017)
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B-10 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis to add risk management and resilience measures into already incorporated management processes. This concept can be seen in Figure B-3 (Proctor et al.
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Literature Review B-11 3 Risk and Resilience Definitions Risk and resilience terms have been used interchangeably and applied in different sectors and fields of study; however, they have different definitions and measures. This section presents an overview of some of the definitions and metrics used in the transportation sector for each term.
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B-12 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis Similarly, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) defines resilience as "the ability to plan and prepare for, absorb, recover from, and adapt to an adverse event." (The National Academies 2012)
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Literature Review B-13 some emphasizing adaptive capacity and robustness, while other prioritize swiftness in recovery response (Dix et al.
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B-14 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis the other hand, is an action taken to mitigate risk. Typical risk management strategies include: (1)
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Literature Review B-15 3.4 Frameworks for Risk and Resilience Addressing the challenge of integrating resilience into all facets of a transportation agency's activities requires a framework. Risk and resilience frameworks provide a conceptual structure, logic, and potentially various tools to frame and estimate risk and resilience.
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B-16 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis (Adapted from International Organization for Standardization 2018.) Figure B-6.
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Literature Review B-17 (Source: AASHTO 2013.) Figure B-7.
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B-18 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis Many other frameworks have been developed in the public and private sectors applicable to risk management. Proctor et al.
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Literature Review B-19 e.g., from 0 (low) to 4 (high)
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B-20 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis those risks are being treated or mitigated. This register can make strategic decisions to mitigate the most dangerous risks within an agency's resource limitations and risk tolerance.
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Literature Review B-21 leadership, governance, training, and awareness required for successful Enterprise Risk Management implementation. 4.1.2 Quantitative Risk Assessment Methods There are a variety of options states can choose to move forward with risk in their TAMPs, including moving beyond a risk register.
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B-22 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis (AEM Corporation 2020) to help guide CDOT staff on the calculation of risk and resilience to multiple highway assets, including culverts, bridges, and roadways from multiple threats such as flood, scour, rockfall, and post-fire debris flow (see Figure B-12)
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Literature Review B-23 Division of Research, Innovation and System Information 2015)
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B-24 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis 4.1.3 Hybrid Risk Assessments Methods Hybrid methods are a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. The World Health Organization (WHO)
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Literature Review B-25 climate-related statistics related to events like heat, cold, and precipitation that can be used to estimate the impact of di erent risks. Another example of a risk assessment model that uses assigned scores to multiple parameters was developed by Pennsylvania DOT (PennDOT)
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B-26 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis 4.1.4 Risk Metrics Since there is no standard risk assessment methodology, there are no standard risk metrics, especially in the transportation sector. In the field of economics, Holton (2014)
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Literature Review B-27 (Source: Cambridge Systematics and ICF International 2015; Winter et al.
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B-28 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis (ASME 2009)
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Literature Review B-29 Further, §1203; 23 USC 150(c) lists the following performance measures: • Pavement condition on the Interstate System and on the remainder of the National Highway System (NHS)
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B-30 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis • MnDOT's performance measures for operational excellence include the percentage share of the Interstate system with poor ride quality in the travel lane, with a target of no more than 2% (MnDOT 2018)
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Literature Review B-31 MPO Goal or Objective Performance Measure(s) or Targets Cape Cod MPO (MA)
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B-32 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis Category Operations Objectives Performance Measures Clearance Time (Weather- Related Debris) Reduce average time to complete clearing (mode, hierarchy of facilities, or subarea of region)
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Literature Review B-33 Class Metric Description Topological Centrality Measure of influence of a node in a network. Weighted centrality Same as centrality except links between nodes are weighted.
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B-34 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis Functionality metrics involve a before and after comparison of network performance and evaluate the network's ability to resume normal functionality after a disruption. For example, in the resiliency triangle (see Figure B-16)
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Literature Review B-35 In summary, researchers and practitioners have developed several metrics to estimate the risk and resilience of transportation networks. However, there is still no agreement on assessment methodology, standard metrics, or performance indicators.
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B-36 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis The ICF International report (2014) describes three approaches for assessing criticality: (1)
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Literature Review B-37 5.2.1 Threat Identification Identifying the threats of concern to a community can be accomplished by reviewing historical records, disaster declarations, hazard maps, and subject matter opinions. Although by no means exhaustive, Table B-14 provides examples of natural, technological, and human-caused threats and hazards that have been identified by many states (DHS 2012)
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B-38 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis (Source: USGS n.d.a.) Figure B-19.
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Literature Review B-39 (Source: FEMA 2021.) Figure B-20.
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B-40 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis (Source: NOAA 2022.) Figure B-21.
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Literature Review B-41 Hazard Data Description Source Flood DFIRM Digital flood insurance rate (DFIR) map with boundaries for 100-/500year floodplain (vector polygon)
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B-42 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis Hazard Data Description Source Frequency Earthquake Estimate the annual frequency of landslides triggered by earthquakes. Global Risk Data Platform Elevation/Slope 30-m to 1-m cell resolution digital elevation grids, Lidar USGS – The National Map Soil Various soil characteristics, depth to water, depth to bedrock (Microsoft access database)
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Literature Review B-43 Hazard Data Description Source Climate Change CMIP5 downscaled climate data (n.d.) Downloadable in CSV or netCDF Format.
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B-44 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis Data Source Comments Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) Significant cyber incidents (CSIS 2021)
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Literature Review B-45 Modeling the extent of hydrological events, or floodplain modeling, requires hydrological and hydraulic modeling." FEMA (2017) defines a Hydrologic and Hydraulic (H&H)
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B-46 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis There are deterministic and probabilistic approaches for accomplishing both to describe intensity and frequency, i.e., frequency-magnitude relationships. Deterministic models are entirely determined by their parameter values and initial conditions.
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Literature Review B-47 0.02%. If the return period of an event is known, such as a "100-year flood," then the frequency is simply one over the return period or 1%.
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B-48 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis 5.3 Estimating Vulnerability of Assets from Relevant Threats or Hazards Another important step for performing risk and resilience analysis is estimating vulnerability. This section discusses definitions of vulnerability and the different factors and tools used to assess vulnerability.
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Literature Review B-49 be based on stakeholder input, indicator-based desk review approaches, or engineering-based analysis. The use of each type of assessment will vary depending on the individual agency's needs and capabilities.
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B-50 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis The framework defines vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (Filosa et al.
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Literature Review B-51 Moderate 0.05 0.10 0.08 Closed during repair works Extensive/Complete 0.10 0.30 0.20 Closed during reconstruction works Permanent Vertical Ground Displacement (m) Serviceability Typology Damage State Min Max Mean Highways Minor 0.02 0.08 0.05 Open, reduced speeds, or partially closed during repair Moderate 0.08 0.22 0.15 Closed or partially closed during repair works Extensive/Complete 0.33 0.58 0.40 Closed during repair work Railways Minor 0.01 0.05 0.03 Open, reduced speeds Table B-21.
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B-52 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis (AEM Corporation 2020)
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Literature Review B-53 fatalities and injuries, monetary and economic damages, and environmental impact, which can generally be estimated in quantitative terms" (ASME 2009)
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B-54 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis sensitivity of assets and their vulnerability to withstand a range of disruptions has been modeled using fragility and restoration models, especially for highway bridges. David Turner developed fragility curves for eight existing bridges in Colorado, considering a single damage state corresponding to structural failure of the bridge superstructure due to riverine ood-induced hydrodynamic li forces (Turner 2015)
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Literature Review B-55 modeled the potential impacts of each event disrupting selected transportation links for 1 week. Results were reported using gross regional product (GRP)
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B-56 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis Index values for the three factors are summed to calculate a composite risk score. PennDOT developed its spreadsheet tool to implement VAAF as part of its Extreme Weather Vulnerability Study (PennDOT 2017)
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Literature Review B-57 (Source: PennDOT 2017.) Figure B-30.
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B-58 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis for bridges but does not include models to address damage to road surfaces. Quantitative outputs for the earthquake model include estimates of direct losses, calculated as a fraction of the replacement value.
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(Source: VTRANS n.d.) Figure B-31.
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B-60 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis a datum: [Mean Sea Level (MSL) , Mean High Water (MHW)
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Literature Review B-61 possible metric for resilience, because it measures how well planners are meeting the needs of the public to resume the use of damaged infrastructure. On this theory, academic studies have developed measure of resilience (MOR)
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B-62 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis Risks are uncertain events that, if they occur, can affect at least one goal or objective of a project, program, or enterprise (Risk Management Guidance n.d.)
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Literature Review B-63 where there is the most information. The paper provides a variety of perspectives on the goals of resilience planning, the assessment of problems or needs, performance measures and targets set out in the plans, and strategies available (including policy-based, flooding-related, operational, and partnership-based strategies)
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B-64 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis and the natural environment (MnDOT 2022)
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Literature Review B-65 Conducting quantitative risk and resilience assessments requires a substantial amount of data. A possible barrier to implementation is the management and collection of these data types in a centralized and systematic database.
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B-66 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis emergency management, including guidebooks and exercises to make plans in collaboration with emergency management departments. However, pre-event recovery strategies for state DOTs are needed.
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Literature Review B-67 these techniques, it can also act as a barrier to implementation. For example, in the final report of NCHRP Project 08-93, Proctor et al.
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B-68 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis Battelle.
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Literature Review B-69 CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies)
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B-70 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis FHWA.
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Literature Review B-71 Kreibich, H., and Bubeck, P
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B-72 Developing a Highway Framework to Conduct an All-Hazards Risk and Resilience Analysis Pearson, D., Stein, S., and Jones, J
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Literature Review B-73 UNISDR.
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