Community-Driven Relocation Recommendations for the U.S. Gulf Coast Region and Beyond (2024) / Chapter Skim
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FIGURE 2-11 High tide flood events are significantly increasing around the United States. SOURCE: National Ocean Service.
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60 This application is designed for use on desktop computers and tablets in landscape mode. Gulf Coast, USA Sea Level Rise Viewer Sea Level Rise Local Scenarios Mapping Confidence Marsh Migration Vulnerability High Tide Flooding + − ?
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THE SCALE OF THE THREAT 61 impacts, these trends substantiate Gulf-wide displacement risks (Neuman et al., 2015; Del Angel, 2022)
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62 FIGURE 2-13 Projected storm surge in Louisiana. SOURCE: Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana.
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THE SCALE OF THE THREAT 63 small river basins drain the Gulf coastal plain and, in the case of extreme rain events, these river basins are prone to flooding. Communities along these waterways tend to have flood mitigation policies and practices that are oriented toward disaster risk reduction, which are often not adequate in the face of the larger threats posed by rising seas induced by accelerated climate change, and many have yet to incorporate robust and longer-term climate adaptation strategies into local and state plans (e.g., formal plans for hazard mitigation and resilience; Cowles, 2021)
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64 FIGURE 2-14 Gulf of Mexico subsidence rates. SOURCE: Wang, G., Zhou, X., Wang, K., Ke, X., Zhang, Y., Zhao, R., & Bao, Y
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THE SCALE OF THE THREAT 65 Industrial Impacts on Regional Flood Risks Decades of infrastructure investments that have shifted natural ecologies, introduced toxic chemical and oil spills, and amplified nutrient discharges further complicate the Gulf's flood risks. Disruptive Infrastructure The Mississippi River Delta is particularly at risk from storm-induced flooding and SLR.
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66 COMMUNITY-DRIVEN RELOCATION Texas Gulf Coast is home to the largest petrochemical industrial complex in the country (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2023)
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THE SCALE OF THE THREAT 67 Nutrient Discharge The discharge of nutrients from agricultural practices in the upper Mississippi River basin contribute to a sizable hypoxic zone. This seasonal occurrence is an ecological stress to the shallow continental shelf area, but studies indicate it has not had a significant impact on fisheries (Diaz & Solow, 1999; Rabalais & Turner, 2019)
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68 COMMUNITY-DRIVEN RELOCATION various types of flooding, extreme heat, freshwater resource contamination, industrial toxicity, and subsidence combine with significant social vulnerabilities and amplify impacts to Gulf residents and livelihoods. Future climate projections will worsen the already-challenging recovery environment, rendering it difficult for local and state governments to respond to, and recover from, increasing climate threats.
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THE SCALE OF THE THREAT 69 Future Displacement Initial small-area population projections (to account for population change, e.g., movement to coastal areas) combined with an SLR vulnerability assessment suggest that over 4.2 million Americans will be at risk of chronic inundation by 2100 with an SLR of 0.9m (Hauer et al., 2016)
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70 COMMUNITY-DRIVEN RELOCATION TABLE 2-2 Gulf Coast State Homes at Risk of Chronic Inundation in the Next 30 Years (i.e., by 2045) Gulf Coast Number of Properties at Risk in the Percentage of Properties State Next 30 Years Statewide Texas 1,397,757 18 Louisiana 329,176 21 Mississippi 417,644 16 Alabama 896,910 47 Florida 2,365,064 36 SOURCE: Union of Concerned Scientists.
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This application is designed for use on desktop computers and tablets in landscape mode. Gulf Coast, USA Sea Level Rise Viewer WATER LEVEL 10ft Sea Level 9ft Rise 8ft Local Scenarios 7ft Mapping Confidence 6ft 5ft Marsh Migration 4ft Vulnerability 3ft High Tide 2ft 2ft Flooding 1ft + Current − MHHW UNITS ?
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72 COMMUNITY-DRIVEN RELOCATION FIGURE 2-16 Top map: Change in population less than 1m above Mean Higher High Water, by county, along the southeastern U.S. coast, 1990–2020.
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THE SCALE OF THE THREAT 73 the location of people at risk (see Figure 2-16)
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74 COMMUNITY-DRIVEN RELOCATION identifying lessons learned that might be applied to future communitydriven relocation efforts. CONCLUSIONS Conclusion 2-1: Future Gulf Coast displacements are difficult to project because few models exist to fully characterize the extent of regional risks from climate changes, subsidence, and industrial impacts.
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3 Examples of Relocation This chapter discusses the following: • A brief history of community relocation in the United States from the late 1800s to the late 1900s as federal involvement increased • Challenges, opportunities, and lessons related to buyouts, in cluding those gleaned from forced relocations with eminent do main and from the Dutch Room for the River Programme (RftR) • Case studies of buyout programs and community relocations from the United States and abroad, including in New York and New Jersey, Alaska, Louisiana, Australia, and Japan INTRODUCTION The committee examined a variety of relocation efforts during the course of the study.
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76 COMMUNITY-DRIVEN RELOCATION efforts. The chapter's coverage of these case studies and their relevance to this report is structured as follows: a history of relocation efforts in the United States from the 1800s to the late 1990s, followed by a high-level description of the infrastructure of buyouts in the United States and a review of the lessons learned and existing challenges of this approach.
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EXAMPLES OF RELOCATION 77 moved but must be deconstructed and rebuilt, the timeliness of Niobrara's relocation likely contributed to its success. The multi-year process of buyouts described by community members at National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine workshops and in numerous reports is a major deterrent in people choosing to relocate.
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78 COMMUNITY-DRIVEN RELOCATION Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD; 13.3 million dollars) , followed by 8.8 million dollars in village borrowing (Pinter, 2021a)
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EXAMPLES OF RELOCATION 79 population: 1,300) under 16 feet of water, damaging over 90 percent of town structures (Knobloch, 2005; Pinter, 2021a)
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80 COMMUNITY-DRIVEN RELOCATION some commercial structures just to the edge of the floodplain to maintain access to Highway 94 (Pinter, 2021a)
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