Critical Issues in Transportation for 2024 and Beyond (2024) / Chapter Skim
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Mitigating and Responding to Climate Change
Mitigating and Responding to Climate Change
Pages 16-20
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From page 16... ...
would have to decline 43 percent by 2030 in order to allow for decarbonization by 2050.27 As the world's second largest current GHG emitter and largest historical emitter, the United States will have to play a central role in meeting the goals of this treaty and working to mitigate and respond to climate change. 16 | critical issues in transportation for 2024 and beyond
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From page 17... ...
(see Figure 9) .29 Aviation is the third largest contributor at 10 percent, but official estimates of aviation's GHG emissions may understate its role as an adverse driver of climate change due to the complex atmospheric effects of its non-carbon emissions.30 17 | critical issues in transportation for 2024 and beyond
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,32 the United States has taken historic steps to reduce GHG emissions across all major sectors. For transportation specifically, these steps include financial incentives for vehicle and battery manufacturing, consumer tax credits for the purchase of electric vehicles (EVs)
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From page 19... ...
In April 2023, California also announced requirements to end internal combustion engine truck sales by 2036 and phase out their use entirely by 2042.38 The combination of federal incentives in the IIJA and IRA and the states' support of California's Advanced Clean Car II and truck EV sales goals could shift consumer vehicle preferences in ways that meet or exceed the federal LDV EV 50 percent new sales share goal by 2030 and achieve roughly 50 percent electric truck sales by 2035.39 However, achieving the intended carbon reductions from EVs will require very substantial increases in electricity generation from renewables, and possibly nuclear power, as well as major upgrades to the electric power grid and gaining permits for, and installing, many new transmission lines.40 As impressive as these shifts to EVs would be, they would not offset enough GHG emissions from transportation to enable the United States to meet its Paris Agreement commitments.41 For example, even if EVs represent 50 percent of new LDV sales by 2030, 88 percent of the nation's 260 million LDVs would still be powered by fossil fuels. Decarbonizing most other vehicles by 2050 depends on continued innovation and public policy as well as addressing the worldwide shortage in critical minerals needed for EVs following the recent surge in demand for EVs in China, Europe, and the United States.
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The transportation sector also needs probabilistic infrastructure design standards to account for climate model uncertainty at the local scale, including weather events such as wildfires, wind, and floods that are sudden and severe, and for gradual climate effects such as sea level rise. Although technological innovations, regulations, and incentives in recent legislation offer promising opportunities to greatly reduce the transportation sector's reliance on fossil fuels, a massive effort will be necessary to decarbonize hundreds of millions of vehicles, build out charging infrastructure, and provide clean electricity by 2050.50 Electrification of transportation vehicles is necessary, but will not be sufficient to address transportation's share of the climate crisis 20 | critical issues in transportation for 2024 and beyond
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