Modernizing the U.S. Census (1995) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
6 CENSUS CONTENT
6 CENSUS CONTENT
Pages 113-139
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 113... ...
We believe it would be inappropriate for us to substitute our judgment on specific items for that of federal government agencies and others who use the data. Rather, we sought to determine in broad terms whether the kinds of data now collected in the census, beyond those items required for the constitutionally mandated purposes of reapportionment and redistricting, serve important public purposes.
|
From page 114... ...
Ultimately, however, federal agency data needs take precedence, and not even all of the agencies' proposed items can be accommodated because of the limits set by the Census Bureau on feasibility and questionnaire length. OMB has a formal role in approving the questionnaire under the terms of the Paperwork Reduction Act.
|
From page 115... ...
Subsequently, the Census Bureau proposed to include virtually all of the 1990 content in the 1995 test, and agencies have put in abeyance, at least for the time being, efforts to mandate specific items. We support the Census Bureau's decision for the test: information is needed on the mail return rates and costs of the long form in the context of the important changes in census methodology that will be tested in 1995 (see the panel's letter report: Schultze, 1993~.
|
From page 116... ...
The argument for the view that the long form is a problem for the census can be formulated as follows: respondents find the long form unduly burdensome because of its length and complexity; this burden lowers the overall mail return rate and also lowers item response rates for people who do send back a form;
|
From page 117... ...
More recent estimates that were provided to the panel from the Census Bureau's cost model suggest that the marginal cost of the long form in the context of the 1990 census methodology may range from $300 to $500 million, or 11 to 19 percent of total 1990 census costs. The added cost due to the somewhat lower mail return rate for long forms compared with short forms in 1990 (see below)
|
From page 118... ...
Effects in 1980 and 1990 The effect of the long form on mail return rates in 1980 was minimal (see Bureau of the Census, 1986~: the mail return rate (which covers occupied housing units) was 81.6 percent for the short form and 80.1 percent for the long form, a difference of 1.5 percentage points.2 Return rates were considerably higher in decentralized, easy-to-enumerate suburban district offices than in centralized, hard-to-enumerate urban offices, but the disparity in return rates differed little by type of form.
|
From page 119... ...
to assess the impact on mail return rates of reducing the number of questions on the short form and of making the form more user-friendly (see Dillman et al., 1993~. The SQT tested five different short forms: the form used in 1990 (with wording updated to 1992)
|
From page 120... ...
, the Census Bureau estimated that the use of a second or replacement questionnaire increased response rates by 10 to 1 1 percentage points. The Census Bureau conducted a third experiment in 1993 with user-friendly long forms and appeals to increase response-the Appeals and Long-Form Experiment (ALFE)
|
From page 121... ...
There is also evidence that reducing the length of the short form the form that most households receive helps response to a limited extent. It may be that implementing the venous improvements to the mailout process, including making the short form shorter and more user-friendly, will widen the differential between the short-form and long-form mail return rates.
|
From page 122... ...
who were not matched to the census although their housing unit was matched (within-household misses) was 11.6 percent for enumerator-filled returns compared with 1.8 percent for mail returns (Siegel, 1993; see also Keeley, 1993~.4 This difference means that the somewhat lower mail return rates for long forms in 1990 could have had the effect of increasing coverage errors.
|
From page 123... ...
The Census Bureau should examine the effects on: · satisfying data users' needs; · mail return rates; · sampling and nonsampling errors (including item nonresponse rates) ; operational problems; and · data processing and estimation problems that could affect the usefulness of the information, particularly for multivariate analysis.
|
From page 124... ...
The second, quite legitimate concern is that census information, whether from the short or the long form, quickly becomes out of date. For example, information on poverty rates for school-age children at the school district level, which is used to allocate federal compensatory education funds, is available only once a decade.8 These concerns have led the Census Bureau to develop a proposal for a continuous measurement system to replace the census long form (see, e.g., Alexander, 1993, 1994a, 1994b)
|
From page 125... ...
Also, fundamental questions about data quality, about user needs (particularly how to interpret and work with cumulated, moving-average estimates) , and about the very important relationship of the continuous measurement system to ongoing household surveys have not been but must be carefully considered.9 Limited operational tests, such as the Census Bureau proposes to conduct in 1995 (see Alexander, 1994b)
|
From page 126... ...
Cost Savings from Dropping the Long Form In comparing the long form with continuous measurement, the first requirement is a realistic estimate of the savings from dropping the long form from the census. Materials supplied by Jay Keller and his Census Bureau colleagues suggest that the marginal costs of the long form-in the context of the census as it was conducted in 1990 are $300 to 500 million (in 1990 dollars)
|
From page 127... ...
Continuous Measurement Cost Estimates The Census Bureau originally proposed a sample size for continuous measurement of 500,000 housing units per month, which would provide small-area estimates of comparable reliability with the 1990 long form (see Alexander, 1993~. The full-cycle (10-year)
|
From page 128... ...
This estimate assumes a total of 250,000 questionnaires are mailed out each month and 135,000 are returned, at a cost per response of $1 1, for a total cost of $1.48 million per month. (The estimated number of mailed back questionnaires represents a mail return rate of 60 percent of occupied housing units, assuming that 10 percent of addresses to which questionnaires are sent, or 25,000 units, turn out to be vacant.)
|
From page 129... ...
Also, what is the cost to deal with rural addresses that are not yet in city-style format? · What is the net cost increase required to maintain a continuously updated geographic referencing system, linked to the master address file, for a 10year period compared to the one-time updating work involved in the census?
|
From page 130... ...
The Census Bureau estimates assume a 60 percent mail return rate from occupied housing units, which compares with a 70 percent mail return rate for the census long form. The latter rate was achieved with all the intense publicity and sense of legitimacy that can only derive from a national census.
|
From page 131... ...
Estimates of cost savings from the continuous updating of the master address file are speculative at this moment. The data obtained by continuous measurement could also prove useful for existing surveys and estimates programs in a number of ways that cut costs.
|
From page 132... ...
It is well known that household surveys rarely cover the population as well as the decennial census (see, e.g., Shapiro and Kostanich, 1988~. For example, even after adjustment for nonresponse, the March Current Population Survey and the Survey of Income and Program Participation typically cover only 80 to 85 percent of black men and 90 to 95 percent of other people when compared with unadjusted census-based population estimates (i.e., estimates that have not been adjusted for the undercount in the census itself; see Citro and Kalton, 1993:Table 3 12~.~2 Alexander (1993, 1994b)
|
From page 133... ...
Relation to Other Household Surveys Much of the nation's most important social and economic information is collected in household surveys conducted by the Census Bureau for other agencies in the federal statistical system. The sponsoring agencies and the Census Bureau have for years conducted extensive research to improve the quality of such surveys as the Current Population Survey, the Health Interview Survey, and the National Crime Survey, as well as the Survey of Income and Program Participation, which is sponsored by the Census Bureau itself.
|
From page 134... ...
Past research suggests that the nonsampling errors associated with self-enumeration in mail surveys are likely to be much larger than those in surveys conducted by personal visit or telephone. We believe that the Census Bureau should develop methods for evaluating the quality of continuous measurement data compared with the other household surveys and for integrating estimates from continuous measurement with the other surveys before making any decision to proceed with implementation of a continuous measurement system.
|
From page 135... ...
In other words, if more complete estimates indicate, as it seems to us, that continuous measurement is likely to cost more than the savings from dropping the long form and other savings from integration with existing household surveys, then careful consideration should be given to alternative uses of that extra funding. The cost and benefits of a wider range of investments in the federal statistical system whether to obtain more frequent small-a~ea estimates by continuous measurement or by some other means or to meet other kinds of data needs should be considered before deciding that continuous measurement is preferred.
|
From page 136... ...
We encourage the Census Bureau, in cooperation with the other agencies of the federal statistical system, to undertake a comprehensive research program to evaluate the quality of the data that would be collected in continuous measurement; to design a new, modern, integrated system of household surveys; and to consider other sources of small-area estimates. This research, which has hardly begun, must be carried out before it is possible to effectively evaluate plans for a continuous measurement system.
|
From page 137... ...
NOTES 1 The reason to use mail return rates (the proportion of forms mailed back from occupied housing units) rather than mail response rates (the proportion of forms mailed back from all housing units, including vacant units)
|
From page 138... ...
Much a design is distinct from a rolling census, which would collect both short-form and long-form information over the course of the decade and not include a contemporaneous once-a-decade enumeration of the entire population; see Chapter 4. 8The Census Bureau is currently undertaking a program, at the request of Congress, to develop small-area intercensal poverty estimates; see Chapter 8.
|
From page 139... ...
CENSUS CONTENT 139 surement system call for quarterly processing of the data with estimates released 6 months after the end of a quarter. In addition, the Census Bureau plans to release annual data for all urban areas with 25O,OOO or greater population.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.