Modernizing the U.S. Census (1995) / Chapter Skim
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8 INTERCENSAL SMALL-AREA DATA
8 INTERCENSAL SMALL-AREA DATA
Pages 156-177
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From page 156... ...
Some major national surveys may provide accurate and timely information for the nation, but they usually provide detail for only a few large geographic areas. Consequently, users' needs for small-area information are met by the application of various estimation methods to census and survey data, but many of them use simplistic assumptions and out-of-date data sets.
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From page 157... ...
In 1972, for example, the enactment of revenue-sharing legislation called for the distribution of some $6 billion annually to states and local governments, under a formula that required current estimates of population and per capita income, as well as revenue tax effort, for each governmental unit eligible for revenue sharing allocations. Congress has enacted a variety of programs that allocate funds to local jurisdictions on the basis of current population estimates, including countercyclical revenue sharing, Aid to Families with Dependent Children, block grants for housing and related assistance, criminal justice equipment and programs, and employment and training assistance.
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From page 158... ...
For example, the Current Population Survey (CPS) was expanded to provide annual average unemployment rates at the state level.
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From page 159... ...
The panel believes that much of the error of interpretation derives from changes over time and not errors in the count or content. Broader recognition that errors in interpretation derive from changes over time would result in a healthy decrease in the false sense of accuracy of many census data.2 More timely information for certain small-area census items would offer substantial benefits for federal agencies, state and local governments, and other users of census data: .
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From page 160... ...
It was also used by the New York State Department of Health (1988:1) , which noted that "county-level poverty estimates for intercensal years have been perhaps the most needed, unavailable piece of data for program planning and monitoring in the health and human services fields." Over the past two decades, the Census Bureau has had a program of producing intercensal estimates of the total national population, by selected characteristics such as age, sex, and race, that uses both survey-based and model-based approaches.
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From page 161... ...
The third case study describes how the Census Bureau prepares annual estimates of income and poverty. The fourth case study discusses possible improvement of small-area intercensal estimates on seasonal and migrant farmworkers.
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From page 162... ...
We endorse the proposal by the Census Bureau to develop income and poverty estimates for families and households for small areas, using available annual income data from tax records. We urge that such work also consider the use of administrative records from the Aid to Families with Dependent Children, Food Stamps, and other special programs that provide information on the low-income population.
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From page 163... ...
The Census Bureau should conduct experiments with federal administrative records for deriving more frequent small-area intercensal data estimates. At a minimum, the panel recommends that the Census Bureau geocode several large federal administrative record systems and use them to produce small-area estimates.
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From page 164... ...
With regard to cost, estimates in the early 1980s began at around $100 million and went as high as $1.1 billion, the total cost of the 1980 decennial census. Although it is quite clear that the nation now recognizes the need for more current data than provided by the last decennial census and, as noted earlier, that a legislative mandate already exists for a mid-decade activity, it seems equally clear that neither Congress nor the Census Bureau is looking to this approach as a means of providing intercensal data.
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From page 165... ...
When combined with other survey data or administrative records data, it could serve as a key element in a model-based series of estimates. Data derived from such a program also could serve as a benchmark estimate in model building or be used as an evaluation tool.
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From page 166... ...
Model-Based Estimates In recent years, most efforts to produce subnational data for intercensal periods, for areas smaller than the state level, have focused on the use of regression-based statistical models, generally involving the use of administrative data. The Census Bureau has used administrative record data extensively in preparing small-area estimates and, with the availability of both 1990 census results and some important new data from the IRS internal master file extract of federal tax returns, it has proposed a research project "to develop improved methodology for updating 1990 census estimates of household income distributions for small areas during the postcensal period" (Bureau of the Census, 1991a)
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From page 167... ...
In spite of various limitations, many administrative files already serve key roles in the production of diverse, current estimates covering a wide diversity of subjects ranging from the Census Bureau's use of IRS files, to statistics derived from birth and death records, immigration statistics, and selected local files on housing starts and school enrollment at national and subnational levels. The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses state unemployment insurance files as part of the data used to produce local-area estimates of labor market activity; the National Center for Education Statistics publishes estimates of school enrollment and a vast panoply of education data based on the system of records maintained by individual school systems; and the Bureau of Economic Analysis uses a vast diversity of administrative record data to produce its current estimates of gross domestic product and its compilation of national accounts.
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From page 168... ...
By contrast, planning for the 1995 census test includes an administrative record component, in which a number of microrecord files will be combined in an effort to reduce the differential undercount.4 Clearly, the efforts undertaken and the experience to date indicate that the use of administrative records can contribute substantially to the decennial census. The Census Bureau currently has a program to examine and document data in the major administrative record databases of federal and state governments.
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From page 169... ...
Another source is an extract of the information contained on the IRS individual master file containing more than 100 million federal individual income tax returns that the Census Bureau receives annually for research and population estimation purposes. The Census Bureau adds geographic codes that are consistent with the IRS's system of addressing.
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From page 170... ...
Among the most valuable work that the Census Bureau could undertake would be to conduct experiments with administrative records for deriving more timely small-area estimates. At a minimum, geocoding several large administrative record systems in order to make intercensal small-area estimates would provide useful data and helpful experience.
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From page 171... ...
The Census Bureau has already experimented successfully in preparing such estimates for states and large metropolitan areas, using a 20 percent sample of Social Security numbers linked to the master IRS individual file. This could be expanded to linking all Social Security numbers to the file, for which the Census Bureau would need to obtain extracts from the Social Security Administration's files, which contain Social Security numbers, and information on age, sex, and race for all Social Security numbers ever issued, that is, the 100 percent file rather than a 20 percent sample.
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From page 172... ...
Because of the size and complexity of the long-term development of improved small-area data, it is important to have a unit within the Census Bureau assigned the exclusive task of working on the use of administrative records for small-area estimates. Recommendation 8.2 The panel recommends that the Census Bureau give a single unit sole responsibility to exploit administrative records and produce small-area intercensal estimates on a frequent basis.
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From page 173... ...
It is the panel's understanding that the Census Bureau and the U.S. Postal Service are entering into an arrangement for sharing address lists and for updating geographic information on residential addresses on a continuous basis.
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From page 174... ...
The one-way street for census address lists also affects the federal statistical system. The Census Bureau's interpretation of Title 13 prevents exchange of data with other statistical agencies that need geographic address files.
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From page 175... ...
Expanded work with administrative records will require changes in access to some data for use by Census Bureau personnel to be linked to other records. Some records may require redesign.
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From page 176... ...
In light of the recognized need, the past decade has seen a number of conferences and seminars devoted to this topic, abroad as well as in this country, and researchers have explored a variety of approaches in attempting to produce intercensal estimates of selected characteristics for states and counties. Unfortunately, for the most part, the efforts have been haphazard and have produced mixed results.
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From page 177... ...
INTER CENSAL SMALL-AREA DATA 177 4Administrative records are currently used for postcensal estimates: for example, the Census Bureau relies on vital statistics information, including records on marriages and divorce, to estimate the household structure in the years after a census. SThe March CPS collects information about household composition, demographics, and sources and amounts of income received for a nationally representative sample of about 60,000 households.
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