Modernizing the U.S. Census (1995) / Chapter Skim
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2 POPULATION COVERAGE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS
2 POPULATION COVERAGE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS
Pages 30-43
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From page 30... ...
The census is the sole basis for apportionment of congressional seats and is relied on heavily for the distribution of federal funds. Improved statistical and demographic techniques permit the Census Bureau to estimate the incompleteness of the census with greater accuracy than in the past.
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The combination of erroneous enumerations and substitutions (b and c' can be added together to produce the total number of counting errors, which in 1990 were estimated to include 16 million people. A substantial proportion of counting errors are people who were incorrectly placed in the wrong geographic areas, resulting in an omission in the correct location and an erroneous enumeration in the incorrect location.
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From page 33... ...
estimated the number in 1990 at 20 million people; they estimate net undercount of about 4 million, which is quite close to the estimate of 4.7 million, cited earlier, on the basis of demographic analysis. Both omissions and counting errors were higher in 1990 than in 1980; omissions increased proportionately more than counting errors, so the result was a larger net undercount.
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By age, undercount numbers and rates from demographic analysis varied widely, from a negative undercount rate (indicating census overcount) for white women ages 15 to 24, to a positive undercount of 14 percent for black men ages 30 to 34.
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In response to the panel's request for information about the accuracy of small-area data in the 1990 census, the Census Bureau provided special analysis of census blocks from the PES. That block-level analysis re vealed several types of errors in data from a stratified sample of 5,290 PES clusters in the 1990 census (Diffendal, 1994~.3 More than 25 percent of the clusters had no erroneous inclusions housing units assigned to the sampled cluster that are actually outside the search area.
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36 N 1 o Cat A i_ Cd Cal Cal At Cal 7 S:: o 7
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The decennial population count, reported in the census, affects the state apportionment of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and the geographic boundaries for congressional districts, state legislative districts, and city council districts.
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The critical question for a state is whether a change in its priority value affects the assignment of the last several congressional seats. Corrections to the census population count would typically change the congressional delegations for those few states with priority values close to the 435th cutoff.
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Funds for education, health, transportation, housing, community services, and job training are all allocated to geographic areas on the basis of population size and social and economic factors. In 1990 the federal government disbursed about $125 billion to state and local governments, and nearly half of this amount was distributed using formulas involving census population data.
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Only 34 to 42 percent of areas would gain because of using corrected population counts. Many governments with only modest population undercounts would not, in fact, actually gain additional federal grant monies.
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Undercount rates were 3 time higher for Asians, 7 times higher for Hispanics, and 17 times higher for American Indians than for whites. 3PES clusters are small areas of the country that are sampled for the survey, prior to the selection of individual housing units.
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