Modernizing the U.S. Census (1995) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
I Alternative Ways to Produce Intercensal Small-Area Data
I Alternative Ways to Produce Intercensal Small-Area Data
Pages 342-356
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From page 342... ...
Small-area data users rely greatly on data provided by the decennial census. Appendix E provides background information on some important census data uses documented by state data centers.
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The third case study describes Census Bureau work to prepare annual estimates of income and poverty. The last case study examines possible ways to improve subnational estimates for the migrant and seasonal farmworker population.
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Several steps are followed to prepare county estimates for AFQT scores. Data on 11,878 youths in the National Longitudinal Survey, sponsored by the Department of Labor, are used to prepare county estimates for various AFQT categories.
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The local unemployment estimates are used to determine local-area eligibility for such federal programs as the Job Training and Partnership Act, the Economic Dislocation and Worker Adjustment Assistance Act, and the Urban Development Action Grant program. State Estimates The Current Population Survey (CPS)
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Preliminary unemployment estimates are based on the aggregate of estimates for three groups: (1) persons who were previously employed in industries covered by state unemployment insurance laws, (2)
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Methodology The income estimates program utilizes census, sample surveys, and administrative records data to update small-area decennial information. Estimates of four-person median family incomes by state utilize the most recent data available from the following three data sources: (1)
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Estimation Models Prior to 1984, the estimation procedure consisted of five main steps: 1. State median family income estimates for four-person families and respective standard errors were directly calculated form CPS data.
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The comparison to the census results suggested that the estimates were more accurate, on the average, without the constraint. Time Frame In updating the state median income estimates annually, the Bureau of the Census uses the most recent data available from its March CPS and BEA's per capita income estimates.4 However, the availability of such data results in a 3 year difference between the time frame of the March CPS and BEA income data and the fiscal year in which the estimates are in effect.
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Modeling and statistical estimation techniques are the processes by which changes in income and poverty at the national level are used to update the small-area data for the last decennial census. In addition, considering the population universe being estimated, additional administrative records such as AFDC or food stamp files would be extremely important and valuable for use in the estimation process.
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MIGRANT AND SEASONAL FARMWORKERS The federal government currently spends over $550 million annually on farmworker programs. Among the major federal programs for farmworkers are migrant education, food stamps, Head Start, the Job Training and Partnership Act, migrant health, and housing assistance.
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. Analysis of the National Agricultural Worker Survey data suggests that more than 25 percent of farmworkers were working temporarily in some other occupation at the time of the 1990 census (Gabbard, et al., 1993~.
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To remedy this situation and to decrease the inappropriate reliance of federal allocations for farmworkers on the census, one proposal would be to initiate a national sample survey of farmworkers, in conjunction with statistical modeling for small-area estimates. An integrated program of surveys and statistical modeling would: · estimate the program-eligible seasonal and migrant farmworker population for each state on an annual basis to improve resource allocation; · describe the characteristics of the farmworker population and their dependents for each state to improve program planning and evaluation; and
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Farm and livestock workers are already covered in the Quarterly Agricultural Labor Survey, sponsored by the Department of Agriculture. The Quarterly Agricultural Labor Survey provides quarterly employment estimates for 17 states with the vast majority of the nation's food production and processing.s Only a small proportion of workers in the fishing, food processing, and forest products industry are farmworkers; these industries provide data through the quarterly unemployment insurance reports for estimating employment levels.
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Bureau of the Census, "Estimates of Median Four-Person Family Income by State, 1974-1989." Current Population Reports Technical Paper 61, January 1992. March 1990 CPS income estimates were published in a report entitled, "Money Income and Poverty Status in the United States: 1989," Senes P-60, No.
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Navy Personnel Research and Development Center 1987 Estimating the Youth Population Qualified for Military Service.
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