Modernizing the U.S. Census (1995) / Chapter Skim
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3 CENSUS COST INCREASES AND THEIR CAUSES
3 CENSUS COST INCREASES AND THEIR CAUSES
Pages 44-58
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From page 44... ...
Population and, more important, the number of housing units have increased over this period but, even after making allowances for these factors, cost escalation has been severe. The average cost of the census was less than $10 dollars per housing unit in 1960 (in 1990 constant dollars)
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From page 45... ...
These developments, the ways that the Census Bureau has responded to them, and the ways in which they are perceived by the public have interacted with each other both to raise the costs of taking the census and to generate increased perceptions of inequity in the resultant census statistics. Thus, for example, the depressed response rate is typically lowest precisely in areas with high concentrations of minority groups, leading to substantially increased costs in an effort to minimize differential undercount and produce accurate data.
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From page 46... ...
In turn, the Census Bureau over recent decades has sought to deal with the combined pressures of falling response rates and increased demands for detailed, geographically fine-grained and accurate data principally through the use of highly labor-intensive enumerative techniques for follow-up and coverage improvement. SPECIFIC FACTORS AND MARGINAL COSTS The increase in census costs in recent decades has been dramatic.
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From page 47... ...
The second part converts the nominal costs to dollars of constant 1990 purchasing power and shows them on a per housing unit basis. Since census costs depend primarily on the expense of delivering a mail questionnaire to a household or having an enumerator visit a housing unit, it is more realistic to relate cost growth to the rise in the number of housing units rather than to population growth.
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From page 48... ...
CUsing GDP implicit price deflator to adjust to 1990 dollars. Of housing units accounts for about $350 million of the cost increases from 1970 to 1990.7 Mail Response Rates Some of the cost growth per housing unit can be attributed to the fall-off in mail response rates.8 If a mail questionnaire was not returned to the census office, a field worker visited the address in an attempt to count the household.
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From page 49... ...
Of the roughly $1.9 billion inflation-adjusted cost increase between 1970 and 1990, only $445 to $575 million can be explained by growth in the number of housing units and the decline in the mail response rate. Cost increases not explainable by these factors amounted, at the lower end of the range, to some $1.3 billion, a rise of 100 percent relative to the 1970 base, after adjustment for changes in housing units and response rates.
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From page 50... ...
This unexplained portion of census cost increases is not contributed by inflation, by population or housing growth, or by declines in the mail response rates. What other factors account for the increases?
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From page 51... ...
The panel supports research and testing for new methods and new content, but with an emphasis on a critical and strategic approach to testing: the Census Bureau should concentrate on testing a selected few high-priority items for inclusion in the next census. Census Staff Productivity The panel studied changes in labor productivity by examining the number of housing units and the total population enumerated by census staff in the 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990 censuses.
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From page 52... ...
Total3.1 %2.7%1.2% 1.8% Blacks6.6%6.5%4.5% 5.7% Nonblacks2.7%2.2%0.8% 1.3% Difference in black and nonblack rates3.9%4.3%3.7% 4.4% Number of District Offices399393412 449 Time Period Open (months) 3-64-66-9 9-12 Staff Headquarters1,8402,1864,O81 6,763 Field187,500223,038458,523 51 0,000a Processing2,0002,6005,400 11,000 Total191,346227,824468,004 527,763 Average Hourly Pay Manager$3.35$5.88$9.41 $ 15.25 Field supervisor2.754.687.37 12.00 Crew leader1.952.964.66 8.50 Enumerators1.602.564.03 7.50 Clerks1.702.323.66 5.75 Panel B: Productivity ratio = housing units/number of staff196019701980 1990 Headquarters31,90732,34222,07815,378 Field314317197204 Processing29,45027,19216,6859,455 Panel C: Percent change in productivity ratio by decade 1960- 1970 1970 1980 1980 1990 Headquarters +1.4% -31.7% -30.3% Field +1.0% -37.8% + 3.6% Processing -7.7% -38.6% - 3.3%
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From page 53... ...
The numbers shown in the table have limitations. A major limitation to the staff figures, which are from the Census Bureau, is that no full-time-equivalent data are available for the field staff.
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From page 54... ...
We assume that the major cost of the census is related to the number of housing units because census questionnaires must be prepared, delivered, and processed for each housing unit.~4 But the number of housing units increased more rapidly than the population, increasing the number of units requiring census questionnaires and follow-up for nonresponse. Overall census costs are affected more by the number of housing units than by population numbers.
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From page 55... ...
Even after adjusting 1970 wages and prices to 1990 levels and allowing for the growth of the number of housing units and the decline of the mail response rates, an unexplained increase in census costs of approximately $1.3 billion between 1970 and 1990 remains. There are important caveats to cost analysis of the census over the past 20 years.
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From page 56... ...
Nonetheless, it is appropriate to ask if this continued effort to improve differential coverage, which has been so far unsuccessful and has increased census costs, is necessary for future censuses. NOTES 1The denominator for census mail response rates includes both unoccupied and occupied housing units.
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From page 57... ...
Mail response rates are calculated on the basis of all housing units, including vacant units. Because about 10 percent of housing units are vacant, mail response rates tend to be slightly lower than mail return rates.
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From page 58... ...
First, there is generally a positive relationship between household size and census mail response rates. Smaller households typically have lower mail response rates, which contribute to increased costs.
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