Modernizing the U.S. Census (1995) / Chapter Skim
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5 A REDESIGNED CENSUS
5 A REDESIGNED CENSUS
Pages 75-112
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From page 75... ...
2. After a reasonable and cost-effective effort to make a physical count of the population, the use of sample surveys and statistical estimation techniques to complete the count can produce greater accuracy than the traditional approach especially with respect to the critical problem of differential undercount.
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From page 76... ...
Postal Service during the census enumeration period; · prelist recanvass in prelist areas, a recheck of the address list during the second stage of follow-up; · vacant/delete check- a recheck in the field of housing units originally
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From page 78... ...
We therefore propose for the redesigned census the approach of statistical estimation to correct the enumerative count, not as a simple add-on to the traditional census but as a completely new point of departure. By so doing we address not only the issue of differential undercount (which could have been done in 1990)
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From page 79... ...
The redesigned census includes new methods to improve the mail response. The new methods-including respondent-friendly questionnaires, Spanish-language questionnaires for Hispanic areas, use of reminder postcards, and motivational messages to increase mail return will decrease costs by reducing the need for personal nonresponse follow-up.
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From page 80... ...
Unlike the traditional census, in which a PES survey is taken to evaluate the final count, the redesigned census would have an integrated coverage measurement survey for the purpose of estimating the number and characteristics of those missed by the prior stages of the census.2 These are the people missed by all traditional census approaches (see Chapter 2~. Overcounting, which is also detected by the PES, could also be taken into account by a coverage measurement survey.
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From page 81... ...
A REDESIGNED CENSUS 81 continued on next page
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From page 82... ...
As mentioned earlier, there are several additional specific ways to achieve cost savings in the future integrated single-number census, including: respondent-friendly questionnaires and other improved procedures for increasing mail response rates, truncating census operations earlier to minimize the lengthy work period for district offices and census field staff, and increased use of U.S. Postal Service employees for such operations as vacancy checks of housing units.
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From page 83... ...
Under the new procedures of a redesigned census, there would be a reduction of special coverage programs that are no longer cost-effective. The reengineered census, along with a review of some specific census operations, is presented below in a major section entitled "A Reengineered Census." Census Bureau Plans nalre.
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From page 84... ...
The 1995 census test will also examine the quality of the census address lists, in a cooperative venture in which U.S. Postal Service delivery addresses are used Legal Issues of Statistical Estimation As part of its examination of alternative methods for counting the population, the panel examined the legal issues for the greater use of statistical estimation.
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From page 85... ...
the development and checking of a master address list prior to the census, (2) the physical enumeration of the population through the mailing of the census questionnaires several days before April 1 (Census Day)
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From page 86... ...
For areas lacking mail addresses primarily rural areas with central postal mailboxes-census staff used a "list-enumerate" procedure. This procedure involved census staff's identifying each of the housing units in a geographic area, listing the units with an identifiable location (e.g., the three-story house on the northwest corner of the intersection of Belnap Road and County Road Five)
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From page 87... ...
It should be noted that consideration of a truncated census assumes some use of statistical estimation in order to produce the final census count. It makes no sense to curtail census operations when the counting of the population is not complete unless there are plans to conduct statistical surveys for completing the count as well as estimating the characteristics of nonrespondents.
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From page 88... ...
This, in turn, could lower mail response rates, raise costs, and lower the quality of the census for small areas. The panel believes that it is important to maintain both the actuality and the public perception that the census is mandatory and that the census makes the attempt to count every person.
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From page 89... ...
One effect is on statistical estimation: the use of survey-based methods to complete the census count is more accurate when a relatively high percentage of the population is counted through direct enumeration. A redesigned census should therefore aim to count a reasonably high proportion of the population through the mail questionnaire and nonrespondent follow-up.
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From page 90... ...
There is considerable variation in completion rates by characteristics of PES clusters. The collection of household responses is much slower in clusters with list/enumerate procedures (list/enumerate procedures refer to census operations in which the enumerator personally lists housing units in an area, then distributes census questionnaires to each unit)
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From page 91... ...
91 ;^ ,D En o v Go cn ~ He v A: ~ v ct c-)
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From page 92... ...
There were particularly lengthy follow-up periods on American Indian lands before the response rates were adequate: even after 6 weeks of nonresponse follow-up, 21 percent of the PES clusters still had less than 50 percent of the final responses complete. Several regions Northeast, Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic, East South Central, and Pacific also required longer duration of follow-up, compared with the remaining regions, before the proportion of clusters with less than 50 percent of final response complete falls to relative low levels.
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From page 93... ...
Cost estimates for a redesigned census under various truncation assumptions are available from the Census Bureau only for truncation by date. Further work is needed by census staff to develop the mix of physical enumeration, sample follow-up, and statistical estimation that would represent the best trade-off between the partly competing objectives of maintaining low sampling errors for small-area estimates and reducing census costs.
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From page 94... ...
We assume for cost estimates that there is a 5 percent higher overall response rate than in the test results. Combining the assumed mail return rates for the short and long forms, adjusting for vacant housing units, and assuming a higher response in a census environment, we assume an overall mail response rate of 71 percent as an estimate for the 2000 census.
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From page 95... ...
The cost savings above for a census truncated by date and with 25 percent sampling for nonresponse range from $413 to $468 million, depending on assumptions about the census mail response rate. The panel believes that a redesigned census would best be conducted using a combination of criteria for truncating the 100 percent follow-up of nonrespondents.
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From page 96... ...
We have considered a variety of cost estimates, for different times of truncation, different rates of sampling for nonresponse follow-up, and different levels of mail response rates. The panel does not recommend any particular date for truncation, and indeed does not recommend a uniform national truncation date.
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From page 97... ...
In practice, it means that the postenumeration survey needs to be operationally independent of census operations; it needs to develop its own address lists, to use enumerators who did not canvass the area for the census, and to arrive at its own count of the sample population. The third key assumption for the postenumeration survey is homogeneity (i.e., that each member of the population has an equal chance of being captured in the census enumeration or in the survey)
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From page 98... ...
98 MODERNIZING THE U.S. CENSUS leads to a downward bias in the postenumeration survey estimate of the undercount.
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From page 99... ...
The 1990 PES involved 165,000 housing units and identified a net undercount of 1.6 percent and substantial differential undercount related to age, sex, and racial groups and by geographic area. For the 1995 census tests, the Census Bureau currently proposes to use a survey-based method to complete the count, called CensusPlus, that is designed to run concurrently with the main census operations.
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From page 100... ...
The Census Bureau has published, for each modern census in the past 50 years, a comprehensive description of the procedures followed in enumerating the population, together with an assessment of the quality of the data. Separate census publications routinely note nonresponse rates and information on allocation rules and rates (Appendix L provides an example of allocation information
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From page 101... ...
Although the panel is not able to provide a specific estimate of the mail response rate for the 2000 census (none of these improvements has yet been used in a census environment) , we believe that these improvements would at least halt the decline in census mail response rates in recent censuses.
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From page 102... ...
Some methods to increase mail response rates may not, after careful study, yield an overall net cost savings. Respondent-Friendly Long Forms and the Use of Appeals The Census Bureau conducted the Appeals and Long-Form Experiment in 1993 with two objectives: to determine the influence of two types of respondent-friendly construction on response rates for the census long form and to determine the influence of three types of appeals on response rates to the census short form.
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From page 103... ...
Local governments have often criticized past censuses because they believe that housing units exist that were not counted by the census. However, the census address list has been deemed confidential by the Census Bureau so that local governments have not been able to make direct comparisons between their address list and the list used for the census.
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From page 104... ...
U.S. Postal Service letter carriers delivered all census questionnaires to housing units in the short period before Census Day (April 1, 1990~.
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From page 105... ...
Such an arrangement would start with the 1990 census address list as a base and then develop a permanent and continuously maintained list of addresses. The updating would rely on the firsthand knowledge of letter carriers who gain through their daily work information about the inventory and location of housing unit addresses.
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From page 106... ...
Identification of vacant housing units. Because the misclassification of occupied housing units can cause coverage errors in the census, in the 1990 census at least two enumerator visits were made to each potentially vacant address.
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From page 107... ...
The "unexplained" increases in census costs that occurred over the period 1970 to 1990 amounted to $1.3 billion. (By unexplained increases, we mean the cost increases that are not explained by wage and price increases, the growth in the number of housing units, and the decline in the mail response rate.)
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From page 108... ...
Given these large increases from 1970 to 1990, we are convinced that abandonment of the goal of physically counting every person and completely rethinking all of the census operations in the context of the new design would make possible substantial additional savings for example, through reducing some expensive coverage improvement programs that would no longer be needed if statistical measures were used to complete the count. With the adoption of a new census design that includes integrated coverage measurement to complete the count, there is an opportunity and a need for knowledgeable census staff to review every aspect of census operations to identify procedures that are no longer necessary or that can be redesigned to be more cost-effective.
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From page 109... ...
Of this total, about $450 to $580 million is explained by the increase in housing units and the decline in the census mail response rate, leaving remaining cost increases of $1.3 billion (see Table 3.2~. We have estimated potential net savings from truncating 100 percent follow-up after a reasonable effort and relying on sampling to complete the non-response follow-up operation of $300 to $400 million.
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From page 110... ...
In its review, the Census Bureau should identify what would have to be done to meet a target and spell out the consequences both for its operations and for the quality of the resulting census. Even if it is ultimately deemed infeasible to achieve the full magnitude of the savings set as a target for the exercise while still maintaining the quality of the census, a good-faith effort could still identify substantial cost savings, as all census operations are reengineered for a singlenumber census in which physical enumeration and statistical estimation are fully integrated.
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From page 111... ...
Unfavorable or sensational news that ridicules the census or its questions or highlights charges of discrimination adversely affects the mail return rates and increases the cost of data collection for nonrespondents. Thus, the process of the census program involves not only the attempt to publicize the census favorably in the mass media, but also sending messages to the public about all aspects of the census process that can be received, understood, accepted, and acted on.
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From page 112... ...
Only 346 offices processed completed mail questionnaires.
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