Modernizing the U.S. Census (1995) / Chapter Skim
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SUMMARY
SUMMARY
Pages 1-18
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From page 1... ...
population race, income, employment, housing conditions, and other social and economic data is collected by periodic surveys and from analysis of administrative records, only the census provides data covering a wide range of population characteristics for small geographic areas and small population groups. Census information is needed by the federal government for reapportionment of seats in the Congress, and by states for drawing congressional districts that meet the requirements of the Voting Rights Act.
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From page 2... ...
Simultaneously, public cooperation with the census process, as measured by mail response rates, declined and was lowest in precisely those areas for which the pressures for an accurate count were greatest. The Census Bureau responded by pouring on resources in highly labor-intensive efforts to attempt to count every last person.
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From page 3... ...
Our analysis leads to one overarching recommendation for a substantially redesigned census in order to contain costs, reduce error in the population count, and improve data quality. We believe that significant changes in the census, which the Census Bureau in large part is planning to test, can achieve significant improvements in the data and at the same time make it possible to realize significant reductions in costs.
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In our judgment, so long as a good-faith effort at physical enumeration is made, completing the estimates by statistical techniques would meet constitutional requirements. The Census Bureau is planning large-scale tests in 1995 to help design the appropriate combination of enumeration and statistical estimation.
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An expectation that the census is not mandatory would affect adversely efforts to increase the mail response rate and would undercut the improvements otherwise obtainable through a redesigned census. The Census Bureau has already conducted a number of field tests of improved procedures, such as the use of respondent-friendly census forms, designed to improve mail response rate, lower costs, and raise accuracy; the results to date have been promising.
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But, as noted earlier, $1.3 billion of the cost increase in the census between 1970 and 1990 is not explained by rising prices, increased numbers of households to be counted, and the effects of the decline in the mail response rate. We believe that these cost increases stemmed principally from efforts to meet strong pressures for highly accurate counts of detailed area and population group by means of highly intensive operations seeking to make a physical count of every last person.
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From page 7... ...
The nation needs the breadth of information for small areas and small population groups that these census data now provide. Conclusion 6.1 The panel concludes that, in addition to data to satisfy constitutional requirements, there are essential public needs for small-area data and data on small population groups of the type and breadth now collected in the decennial census.
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From page 8... ...
Its length and complexity have led to some suggestions that dropping the long form would significantly improve the census mail response rate and substantially lower costs. It has been variously suggested that much of the lost data could be replaced by the use of administrative records or by a large-scale and continuing sample survey of households.
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Although we believe that the proposed continuous measurement system deserves serious evaluation, we conclude that much work remains to develop credible estimates of its net costs and to answer many other fundamental questions about data quality, the use of small-area estimates based on cumulated data, how continuous measurement could be integrated with existing household surveys, and its advantages compared with other means of providing more frequent small-area estimates. In our judgment, it will not be possible to complete this work in time to consider the use of continuous measurement in place of the long form for the 2000 census.
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From page 10... ...
In that context, the Census Bureau should examine the cost-effectiveness of alternatives, the ways in which they meet user needs, and the manner in which continuous measurement or other alternatives could be integrated into the nation's system of household surveys. The research program should be carried out in cooperation with the federal statistical agencies that sponsor household surveys and should include evaluation of the quality of important data elements, the frequency and modes of data collection, and the manner in which results would be presented, as well as methods for introducing change over time.
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We recognize that reporting of this status in the census has multiple meanings for respondents and that the context of reporting affects how people self-identify. Conclusion 7.2 The panel concludes that the census questionnaire must be developed as a well-tested means for obtaining nationally useful data on race and ethnicity to meet constitutional and legally mandated federal requirements and for other legislative and program needs and informational purposes.
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Recommendation 7.2 The panel recommends that the Office of Management and Budget issue a revision of Statistical Directive 15 sufficiently early to provide adequate time for planning and testing for the 2000 census and coordinated implementation of changes by all affected agencies. SOME RADICAL ALTERNATIVES TO THE CENSUS The panel evaluated a number of proposals for radically different ways of collecting the data now provided in the decennial census before deciding to recommend a redesigned census combining traditional enumeration with greater use of statistical estimation.
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From page 13... ...
Conclusion 4.1 The panel concludes that a national register for the United States is not a feasible replacement for the decennial census. An Administrative Records Census There are three potential ways in which administrative records such as records of the Social Security Administration, the Internal Revenue Service, and the vital statistics systems of state and local governments~an be used to supplant or supplement the decennial census: (1)
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From page 14... ...
Postal Service concluded, for a variety of reasons, that it would not be practical for letter carriers to replace census enumerators. Conclusion 4.3 The panel concludes that the decennial census cannot be conducted by the U.S.
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The most cost-effective way of improving the availability of intercensal small-area data is likely to be the expanded use of federal, state, and local administrative records to supplement decennial census data. By conducting exper~ments with the use of administrative records, the Census Bureau could gradually build a reservoir of knowledge about the potentials and the limitations of such records and the modifications in records that would be needed to male them useful for statistical purposes.
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From page 16... ...
On the basis of preliminary estimates provided by the Census Bureau, the 10-year cost of keeping these files updated is, to a first approximation, no higher than the cost incurred each decade to build them from scratch. The updated address files would be a major tool that state and local governments could use, in combination with decennial census data and currently available information from administrative records and other sources, to improve smallarea data during intercensal periods.
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From page 17... ...
If a decision is then made to continue, the Census Bureau should proceed with the necessary steps, including the necessary accompanying safeguards, to make the master address file available for statistical purposes to the federal statistical system and to cooperating state and local governments.
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