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Pages 233-242

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From page 233...
... , 5, 7, 168 contributions of, 48, 54, 88, 170-171 cross-survey reviews, 95 databases, 88-89 design and management of, 170- 171 on expenditures, 94 family asset surveys, 93 future prospects, 91 -92, 180- 181 goals, 48, 57, 88, 180 incorporating employer survey in, 116 119 linkage with administrative data, 5, 122 123 matched S SA files, 122- 123 medical cost data, 57 opportunities for validation studies, 130 participants, 88, 180 recommendations for, 5, 96, 120 time horizons, 151 - 152
From page 234...
... administrative records, 6, 69-70, 120-124 for analytical modeling, 70 bootstrapping, 154 confidentiality issues, 6, 121, 122, 123, 124, 129 consumption-savings behaviors, 48 cost of health care, 56 cross-sectional surveys, 71, 187- 189 cross-survey reviews, 95 current organizational structure, 165- 166 deficiencies in, 3, 4, 41, 57, 61, 63-64, 96-97 on demand for older workers, 114-115, 120 designs for, 65-68 on employer benefits, 111- 114 employer data task force, 167- 168 employer-related data, 5-6, 44-45, 96 103, 110-111 evaluation of data quality, 6, 131 exact-matched data files, 6, 121 - 124, 128-129 forum working group on data quality, 169 future directions, 91-95, 110-111 health care reform experience, 62-63 on health/disability status, 55-56 importance of validation, 124- 125, 153 on individual behavior, 4-5 interagency collaboration for, 6-7, 96, 119, 124, 166-167 on labor supply, 49 methods of validation, 125- 129 microlevel comparison of data files, 128 129 for microsimulations, 143- 144, 149- 152 on mortality rates, 52 nonsampling errors, 125 organizational problems, 166 panel survey review group, 168- 169 participants, 165
From page 235...
... 2, 134, 140, 143, 145, 146, 149 characteristics, 194, 199-200 documentation, 199-200 limitations, 211-212 operation, 200-207 opportunities for improvement, 162 pension components, 207-209 DYNASIM 2. See Dynamic Simulation of Income Model EEarly retirement data needs, 5 labor market distortions, 32 Economic shocks, 8, 26 Employee Benefits Survey, 5, 44, 97-100, 111, 112, 119-120, 168 Employer behavior administrative data, 123- 124 analytical models for, 15, 44 benefit offerings, data collection on, 111 114 criteria for policy evaluation, 33-34 current knowledge base, 40, 41, 44-45 data collection task force, 167- 168 data needs, 5-6, 44, 45, 119 data sources, 96- 103, 190- 192 demand for older workers, 43 determinants of, 42 development goals for modeling, 140-142 future directions for data collection, 110 111 microsimulation models, 134- 135 motivation for sponsoring pension plan, 42-43 obstacles to data collection, 107- 110 panel survey design, 115- 119, 120 pension plan design, 42-43 pension plan policies directed at, 28-29 pension sponsorship rate, 21 proj ection modeling, 8, 138 - 139 recommendations for data collection, 5-6, 119-120 recommendations for projection modeling, 9, 142 research needs, 3-4, 37, 58
From page 236...
... , 5, 7, 168 contributions of, 48, 54, 88 cross-survey reviews, 95 databases, 88-89 design and management of, 170- 171 on expenditures, 94 family asset surveys, 93 future prospects, 91-92 goals, 48, 51, 57, 88, 181 on health care use, 84 on health status, 82 INDEX incorporating employer survey in, 116119 on individual assets/expenditures, 85, 8687 linkage with administrative data, 5 matched S SA files, 122- 123 medical cost data, 57 participants, 88, 181 on pension coverage/benefits, 80, 81 recommendations for, 5, 96, 120 retirement-related expectations, 78-79 time horizons, 151 - 152 use of data in microsimulations, 143, 145-146, 151-152 validation needs, 129, 130 Health care reform modeling techniques, 62 near-term policy options, 30-31 obstacles to assessing proposals, 1, 2, 11, 62-63 Health/disability status obstacles to data collection, 55 panel survey findings, 72 research needs, 60 significance of, for retirement income system, 55 trends, 55-56 Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996, 30 n. Home equity, 23, 47, 48 HRS.
From page 237...
... INDEX projection modeling goals, 8 reduced-form models, 50 research needs, 3-4, 37, 48, 59, 70 significance of, for projection modeling, 39-40 structural models, 50-51 tax policy effects, 7-8 time horizon for policy effects, 36 time horizon for study of, 70 See also Consumption; Savings behavior Individual Retirement Accounts, 2, 46 incentives to increase contributions to, 13, 26, 29 policy issues, 13 substitutability of contributions, 47 Inflation indexation, 19, 39-40 Inherited assets, 30 Interagency Forum on Aging-Related Statistics, 7, 167, 169 Intergenerational transfers, 32 models for, 197- 198 Internal Revenue Service, 121 L Labor, Department of, 2, 3, 8, 141, 152, 167 recommendations for, 5, 119, 142 Labor supply. See Demand for older workers; Workforce participation Life expectancy, 24 Long-range forecasting, 36-37 behavioral responses, 39-40 ex post, 154 microsimulation models for, 142 Long-term care, 184 individual spending for, 30 Longitudinal Research Database, 191 - 192 Longitudinal Study of Aging, 181 M Macroeconomic-Demographic Model, 133, 196 Macroeconomics microsimulation inputs for modeling, 148 outcomes of policies affecting employers, 33-34 policy, 12 projection models, 15, 135 Managed care, 25 237 Marital status economic status of elderly and, 53-54 as mortality variable, 53 research needs, 4, 54 Medicaid, 2, 12 exact-matched records, 124 health care spending, 23-24 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 189 Medical savings accounts, 26 Medicare, 2, 12, 189 exact-matched records, 124 future prospects, 20 goals for projection modeling, 7 health care spending, 23-24 individual retirement decisions and, 50 policy options, 31 record quality, 128 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, 181182 Micro simulation s advantages, 134 aggregate projections, 148 aging techniques, 134 applications, 142 available systems, 142- 143 behavioral interactions in, 147 current systems, 138-140, 193-196 data sources, 134, 143, 149-152 design considerations for new systems, 152 development goals for new systems, 143149 dynamic qualities, 145 employer-based, 8, 134-135, 146 health care coverage in, 147 individual-level, 8 interaction with other models, 147- 149 methodology, 134 projection capabilities, 145-147 recommendations for, 9, 153 role of, 15 savings behavior in, 146- 147 SSA disability insurance modeling, 161162 types of, 134 Middle-aged people, 5 consumption-savings behavior, 46 data collection needs, 96 panel survey data, 72-88 personal savings trends, 47
From page 238...
... , 72, 92, 9394, 95, 168-169 National Medical Expenditure Survey, 56, 57, 62 National Medicare Expenditure Survey, 189 National Survey of Families and Households, 54, 185- 186 New Beneficiary Followup, 185 New Beneficiary Survey, 185 INDEX o Office of Management and Budget, 166, 167 Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance, 20 Outcome criteria, 31-34 p Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) , 88, 93-94, 145, 150, 169, 186 Panel surveys advantages, 70-71 asset valuation, 93 for behavioral modeling, 51 for cohorts of individuals, 180- 185 consumption/savings behaviors, 92-94 cost of health care, 56-57 cross-survey reviews, 95, 96 employee-employer study, 115- 119 on employer behavior, 5, 120 employer behavior data, 45 expense, 71 of families and households, 185- 187 features/findings of, 72-89 future prospects, 91-92 health/disability status, 55-56 for microsimulations, 151 - 152 nonsampling errors in, 125 recommendations for, 5, 96 research needs, 97 review group, 168- 169 role of, 2 vs.
From page 239...
... See Pension and Retirement Income Simulation Model Private sector, 170-172 Privatization of social security goals, 27 obstacles to modeling, 63-64 policy issues, 13- 14 Productivity, 41, 102 age-related data, 114 239 Projection modeling analytical modeling and, 15, 57, 132 application of validation techniques in, 155-156 best professional judgment for, 155-156 challenges to, 34-38 complex behavioral model, 51 in Congressional Budget Office, 160-162 cost of health care, 56 current systems, 138- 140 data needs for, 2-3, 8-9, 57, 61, 70, 141 deficiencies of, 132 development costs, 137 development goals, 140 differential risk in, 36 distributional analysis, 162- 163, 164 documentation for, 137- 138 of employer behaviors, 8, 138- 139, 140 142 ex post forecasting, 154 for executive branch, 161 goals for, 7-9 health care system, 30 heterogeneity of, 34-35 importance of validation for, 153 of individual behaviors, 37, 139-140 interagency collaboration for, 169-170 large-scale individual-level microsimulation, 8, 9 limitations of, 61 long-range forecasting, 36-37 long-term goals, 8 methods of validation for, 153-155 mix of employer types, 44 mortality rate in, 52-53, 156-157, 163 near-term strategies, 159- 160 opportunities to improve existing models, 162-163 performance evaluation criteria, 135- 138 policy outcome evaluation, 34 private sector participation, 170, 171-172 probabilistic methods, 158, 164 program interaction effects, 34-35, 142 recommendations for, 9, 142, 159, 163 164, 172 role of, 2, 15, 132 savings-consumption behavior in, 49 sensitivity analysis, 154- 155, 156, 159 significance of behavioral variables for, 39-40 significance of demographic process variables for, 40-41
From page 240...
... 240 SSA models, 161-164 SSA validation techniques, 156-159 types of, 15, 133-135 uncertainty effects, 8, 38, 154-155 validation of databases for, 124, 153 Public Pension Coordinating Council, 103, 111 Public policy cost-benefit analysis, 15- 16 current concerns, 1 -2, 12- 14 current government agency responsibility, 12, 165- 166 data and research needs, 57-60, 61-62 identifying uncertainty measures for, 8, 38, 155 near-term modeling strategies for, 159-160 near-term options, 25-26 options for health care, 30-31 options for influencing personal savings, 29-30 options for pension plans, 27-29 options for Social Security, 26-27 outcome evaluation for, 31-34 pension regulation issues, 13 personal saving issues, 13, 23 policy question formulation, 159 program interactions, 34-35 research needs, 3-4, 11 Social Security system issues, 13-14 structural models for, 51 tools for, 2 R Reduced-form models, 50 Regulatory environment pension funds, 13 retirement security issues, 12 Research current organizational structure for, 165166 need for, 3-4, 41 priorities, 57-60 role of, 2 Retirement Health Survey, 185 Retirement History Survey, 49, 72, 79, 81, 84, 86, 87, 145, 185 Retirement income assessment of security of, 11-12 current government policymaking structure, 12 INDEX current policy concerns, 1 -2, 10, 12- 14 current status, 17- 19 determinants of security, 39 future challenges, 17, 19-20, 25 implications of health care cost trends, 23-24 near-term policy options, 25-26 obstacles to modeling, 3 outcome criteria for policy evaluation, 31-34 panel surveys, 72-89 personal savings for, 23 policy areas affecting, 12 sources of, 12 threats to, 12 trends, 17 S Savings behavior bequest motives, 46 criteria for policy evaluation, 32, 33 current practice, 23 decision-making models, 46 investment vehicles, 46 life-cycle model, 46 microsimulation modeling, 146- 147 near-term policy options, 29-30 panel survey data, 72, 92, 93, 94 policy issues, 23 precautionary motives, 46 projection modeling, 49 proposals to stimulate, 26 rate of return issues, 47-48 research needs, 4, 46-47, 48, 58-59 significance of, for policymaking, 26 tax incentives, 13 trends, 47 Schieber and Shoven Model, 196 Sensitivity analysis, 154- 155, 156, 159, 164 Small businesses incentives for pension plan development, 26 obstacles to pension plan development in, 42-43 pension regulation, 13 Social Security Administration (SSA) , 2, 10, 152 actuarial proj ections, 196- 197 administrative records, 121- 123, 163 model validation in, 156-159
From page 241...
... , 89, 91, 95, 128, 169, 189 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) , 89-90, 91, 95, 121, 122-123, 128, 129, 130, 169 design and goals, 186- 187 future prospects, 187 for microsimulations, 150- 151 pension data, 168 Survey of Private Pension Benefit Amounts, 121-122 241 T Tax policy goals for projection modeling, 7-8 intervention for Social Security system, 26-27 pension plan options, 28-29 personal savings incentives, 13 retirement security issues, 12 transgenerational equity, 32 Technology, health care, 56 TIAA-CREF, 2, 10 Time-series models, 15, 133 Treasury Individual Income Tax Simulation Model (OTA Model)


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