Improving Data on America's Aging Population Summary of a Workshop (1996) / Chapter Skim
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2 AMERICA'S AGING POPULATION: TRENDS AND UNCERTAINITIES
2 AMERICA'S AGING POPULATION: TRENDS AND UNCERTAINITIES
Pages 5-16
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From page 5... ...
are projected to 1 The middle series population projections assume a total fertility rate in 2050 of 2.15, life expectancy at birth in 2050 of 79.7 years for males and 85.6 years for females, and an ultimate net migration of 880,000 per year. In contrast, under the "high life expectancy" series of projections, the proportion of Americans aged 65 and older is expected to be 22.7 percent in 2050.
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From page 6... ...
Changing life expectancy at older ages, some would argue, is the largest source of uncertainty in Social Security Trust Fund solvency. It is crucial that researchers and policy makers be able to estimate the number of elderly persons in the future population, especially when developing legislation to ensure the fiscal stability of the Social Security system.
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From page 7... ...
An analysis of data from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long-Term Care Surveys showed that both preservation of functioning in the nondisabled population and increased life expectancy for disabled persons occurred: overall, the analysis showed a significant improvement in the functional status of older cohorts at the end of the 1980s, compared with those who belonged to older cohorts at the beginning of the 1980s (Manton, Corder, and Stallard, 1993~. It is possible that current cohorts of persons aged 65 and older have reaped the benefits of such improvements as better nutrition, water quality, and hygiene that occurred when they were young.
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From page 8... ...
. In contrast, projections of the future disabled elderly population based on data from the 1984 National Health Interview survey Supplement on Aging do not specify whether a disability has lasted or is expected to last at least so days (Zedlewski et al., 199o)
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From page 9... ...
the supplemental medical insurance component. Part A pays for hospital care, some skilled nursing facility care, limited amounts of skilled home health care, and hospice care.
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Quality assurance issues pertinent to long-term care include consumer risk-taking related to quality of care; whether and how quality standards and assessments should differ depending on care setting; whether and how standards and assessments should differ on the basis of the consumer's degree of cognitive impairment; and the rights and perquisites of the long-term care labor force. Likewise, it is expected that consumers may search for less costly, better quality care alternatives, including subacute care, home health care, and assisted Medicaid spending is primarily for long-term care services.
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From page 11... ...
is scheduled to increase from 65 to 66 between the years 2000 and 2005 and then from 66 to 67 between 2017 and 2022. Moreover, employer pension coverage has undergone a shift away from defined-benefit to defined-contribution plans, and this shift may complicate researchers' understanding of how cohorts reaching old age in the future will experience retirement (Uhlenberg and Miner, 1996~.6 The growth of defined contribution plans relative to defined benefit plans may reduce incentives for early retirement, may accentuate the already significant role of pensions in creating income inequality within cohorts in later life, and may lead to increasing uncertainty about future pension incomes in retirement (Paine, 1993; Quinn and Burkhauser, 1994~.
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From page 12... ...
Future research will necessitate data collection at the individual, employer, and benefits-provider level to address such questions.7 INCOME, WEALTH, AND QUALITY OF LIFE Older Americans as a group have made impressive gains in their economic well-being over the past 30 years. At the same time, the economic position of nonelderly persons aged 18-64 has declined somewhat, and the economic position of children has eroded considerably.
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From page 13... ...
world, according to findings from the Luxembourg Income Study, but the average income of older women living alone in the United States ranks below all other major industrialized countries except Australia (Holtz-Eakin and Smeeding, 1994~. The sources of income that the elderly rely on also vary widely, especially when age of recipient is considered.
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From page 14... ...
As women' s labor force participation rates gradually approximate men's, it is uncertain whether working women will continue to be a source of care for their aging parents. The availability of family members to provide care is an important factor in the lives of elderly Americans.
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From page 15... ...
To the extent that living costs and living patterns are different among states, having geocoded data about the elderly will be increasingly important. To the extent that health conditions vary by climate, projections of future health status would benefit from taking into account the unequal geographical distribution and growth rates of the elderly.
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From page 16... ...
The health and disability status of future cohorts of the elderly may vary widely, depending on individual characteristics such as educational attainment, socioeconomic status, and race and ethnicity. Medical advances or unforeseeable macroeconomic and social shifts may also influence the health of future cohorts of the aged.
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