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(NAS Colloquium) Earthquake Prediction The Scientific Challenge (1996) / Chapter Skim
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Earthquake prediction: The interaction of public policy and science
Pages 3721-3725

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 3721...
... Causal precursors, informational phenomena, and predictive precursors should all continue to be the focus of scientific study, but only the latter two should be the basis for public policy. Classifications Nonprecursory information predicts the earthquakes expected from the previously recorded rates of earthquakes.
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From page 3722...
... This technique provides the standard estimate of the earthquake hazard in most regions of the United States (5~. Such an analysis assumes only that the rate of earthquakes in the reporting period does not vary significantly from the long-term rate (a sufficient time being an important requirement)
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From page 3723...
... Whether these fault-specific foreshock probabilities are predictive precursors has still not been completely tested. Although much of the data used in determining these probabilities are available, such as rate of background seismicity, a fundamental quantity, the rate at which foreshocks precede mainshocks is not well defined.
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From page 3724...
... I propose that public policy should be based only on informational phenomena and, when they become available, predictive precursors. By this I mean that probabilities for public use, both short-term warnings and long-term forecasts for land-use planning, should be derived only from historical, geodetic, or geologic rates of activity and precursors that have been demonstrated to provide more accurate information than the rates alone.
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From page 3725...
... the intersection of these two classes, predictive precursors that are causally related to a particular earthquake and provide probabilities of earthquake occurrence greater than achievable from a random distribution. In the long term, probabilities derived from geologic rates and historic catalogs are predictors, while conditional probabilities are precursors.
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Key Terms

  • predictive precursors
  • earthquake prediction
  • causal precursors
  • earthquake hazard
  • causally related

  • conditional probabilities
  • informational phenomena
  • phenomena related
  • earthquake occurrence
  • particular earthquake

  • precede mainshocks
  • predictive precursor
  • failure process
  • probability function
  • earthquake process

  • earthquake rates
  • triggering models
  • foreshocks precede
  • nonprecursory information
  • causal phenomena

  • failure models
  • particular event
  • accurate probabilities
  • slip event
  • function expressing

  • physical processes
  • earthquake failure
  • strain events
  • processes governing
  • earthquake hazards


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