(NAS Colloquium) Earthquake Prediction The Scientific Challenge (1996) / Chapter Skim
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Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy
Initiation process of earthquakes and its implications for seismic hazard reduction strategy
Pages 3726-3731
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From page 3726... ...
In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies, and media to make quick reports and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed. Long-term forecast, or prognosis, of earthquakes is important for development of realistic building codes, retrofitting existing structures, and land-use planning, but the distinction between short-term and long-term predictions needs to be clearly communicated to the public to avoid misunderstanding.
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From page 3727... ...
In contrast to these, many studies using close-in strain and tilt meters have concluded that precursory slip, if any, is very small, <1%, for many California earthquakes (13) such as the 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake (14)
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From page 3728... ...
, no obvious evidence for such precursory strain change has been reported; thus, we cannot expect slow precursory deformation to occur consistently before every large earthquake. These results are not surprising in view of recent numerical studies using laboratory-derived constitutive relations.
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From page 3729... ...
Physically or geologically, these events can be considered a single earthquake, but whether it occurs in two distinct events 32 hr apart or in a single event would have very different social consequences. A Strategy for Seismic Hazard Mitigation These results demonstrate that reliable short-term earthquake prediction with seismological or geodetic means is difficult.
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From page 3730... ...
A strategy for effective seismic hazard reduction is to take full advantage of the recent technical advancements in seismological methodology and instrumentation, computer, and telemetry technology. In highly industrialized communities, rapid earthquake information is critically important for emergency services agencies, utilities, communications, financial companies and media to make quick reports, and damage estimates and to determine where emergency response is most needed (34~.
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From page 3731... ...
Panel on Real-Time Earthquake Warning (1991) Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring-Early Warning and Rapid Response (Natl.
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