Skip to main content

(NAS Colloquium) Earthquake Prediction The Scientific Challenge (1996) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:

Intermediate-term earthquake prediction
Pages 3748-3755

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 3748...
... It was found that the approach of a "strong" earthquake may be indicated by certain patterns in an earthquake sequence; they are called premonitory seismicity patterns and are used in prediction algorithms reviewed here. A test of prediction algorithms is crucially important, since they are inevitably adjusted retrospectively.
Read the entire page →
From page 3749...
... In robust definition, the normalized premonitory phenomena are identical in the magnitude range of at least M - 4.5 and for a wide variety of neotectonic environments (12-14) , which include subduction zones, transform faults, intraplate faults in the platforms, induced seismicity near artificial lakes, and rock bursts in mines.
Read the entire page →
From page 3750...
... Star shows the epicenter of the Loma Prieta earthquake. Solid polygon shows the reduced area of alarm; it is determined in retrospection by applying algorithm Mendocino Scenario described below.
Read the entire page →
From page 3751...
... We see that prediction by algorithm CN is more reliable for strong earthquakes, which occur on an average once in 7-10 years (N = 0.15-0.1~; prediction of stronger earthquakes should probably be made separately, in larger areas. This breakdown is not made for the retrospective test, since the magnitudes were often rounded up to 0.5 during the corresponding time intervals.
Read the entire page →
From page 3752...
... Circles and dark polygons show alarm areas obtained respectively by MS and Mendocino scenario algorithms. Small open circles show actual epicenters of strong earthquakes.
Read the entire page →
From page 3753...
... Of particular promise is an analysis of precursors with time measured in the number of the earthquakes within a certain magnitude range (51~. This time scale allows one to make a uniform analysis of foreshocks, main shocks, and aftershocks.
Read the entire page →
From page 3754...
... . Nevertheless, in earthquake prediction research long-range correlations are often regarded as counterintuitive, probably on the ground that in a wide class of simple elastic models redistribution of stress and strain after an earthquake would be confined to the vicinity of its source (Saint Venant principle)
Read the entire page →
From page 3755...
... (1982) in Earthquake Prediction Research, ed.
Read the entire page →

Key Terms

  • strong earthquakes
  • earthquake prediction
  • prediction algorithms
  • magnitude range
  • premonitory seismicity

  • earthquake flow
  • mendocino scenario
  • premonitory patterns
  • seismicity patterns
  • main shocks

  • time intervals
  • premonitory phenomena
  • algorithms described
  • adjustable parameters
  • earthquake sequence

  • time scale
  • linear dimension
  • main shock
  • time interval
  • prefixed parameters

  • prediction research
  • time windows
  • dead sea
  • algorithm mendocino
  • circum pacific

  • loma prieta
  • sea rift
  • pattern recognition
  • studies reviewed
  • sliding time


    • This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
    More information on Chapter Skim is available.