Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035: Becoming a 21st-Century Force Volume 1: Overview (1997) / Chapter Skim
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5 The International Security Environment: 2000-2035
5 The International Security Environment: 2000-2035
Pages 30-41
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From page 30... ...
In so-called conventional warfare it has become important to distinguish national governments and leadership those responsible for initiating wars or crises leading to war from populations, whom we do not wish to harm physically for humanitarian and political reasons. This leads to a sustained trend toward precision in targeting and weapon delivery, to attack only the war makers and their ability to make war, and to avoid producing casualties and random destruction among local populations.
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From page 31... ...
All of these modes of conflict and threats to the peace cross national boundaries as we have known them, although in many cases national entities aid and abet them. The transnational groups and their mentoring countries also have it in their power to acquire weapons of mass destruction nuclear weapons, and especially chemical and biological weapons that are difficult to deny to the wouldbe users and difficult to detect.
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From page 32... ...
Growing economic power centers in Southeast Asia, such as Indonesia and Thailand, keep a wary eye on both China and Japan. They will be quick to note if the United States weakens its security commitment to the area, and their history suggests that they would then shift orientation accordingly.
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From page 33... ...
While the discussion above reviews the likely emergence of major regional powers as seen from current events, Table S 1 is intended more as a review of the entire world situation that may face the nation and its need for naval forces in the future.
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From page 34... ...
The naval forces have a strong advantage in this situation because they can sustain operations at large distances from secure bases, maintaining a continuing, visible presence in a coastal zone without intruding on any nation's sovereignty in sensitive situations. Forward movement of naval forces at sea in times of crisis also creates less tension domestically regarding the advisability of U.S.
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From page 35... ...
Thus, unless one of the regional challenges described above grows into a major military threat of the kind that faced us in the Cold War, the tightness of the defense budget is unlikely to be relaxed. Incorporation of new and advanced military capabilities in the naval forces will have to be undertaken at the expense of forces in being or some other aspect of force posture, by shifting resources within fixed or shrinking budgets.
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From page 36... ...
military operations.3 Even in situations of lesser conflict or operations short of war, opponents may 3 Much of the following description of opposing military capabilities draws heavily on the Naval Studies Board's report on regional conflict in the 21st century (Naval Studies Board.
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From page 37... ...
Recent unclassified reports about growing ballistic missile capability outside Europe and the United States show that North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Pakistan, among the smaller nations, have ballistic missiles of Scud vintage and evolutionary advances from that point. Israel and India are develop
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From page 38... ...
Especially troublesome is the possibility of disabling attacks against ships of the fleet, naval forces ashore, or friendly populations and installations along the littoral by such missiles carrying chemical or biological, if not nuclear, warheads, or even severely damaging conventional submunition warheads. Ballistic missile attacks can be made rapidly and with surprise because the weapon does not require much visible advanced preparation for launch.
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From page 39... ...
Given the time it takes to field new military systems and to develop new tactics and operational techniques using them, especially in the expected tight budget environment, continuing effort will be necessary to meet the potentially demanding opposition that we can see being fielded today. STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE OF THE FUTURE NAVAL FORCE ENVIRONMENT The United States in today's world does not perceive an immediate threat to its survival and that of its close allies, such as existed during the Cold War.
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From page 40... ...
They would intimidate their neighbors while building or acquiring what must now be viewed as today's decisive, strategic weapons: economic power; long-range ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads; modern, quiet submarines; aviation armed with antiship missiles to threaten our naval forces; other weapons of mass destruction; and the capacity for massive but covert disruption of the information systems on which both our civilian economy and military forces depend. These weapons, and the new kinds of warfare listed previously, will ultimately threaten the United States at home not by invasion, but by disruption and destruction.
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From page 41... ...
THE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT: 2000-2035 41 the block," to paraphrase former Secretary of Defense William Perry, and preferably the biggest, to hold our place at the table, to deter threats and conflicts, and to achieve our strategic objectives, regardless of whether the interaction with the others is friendly or hostile. The naval forces will be expected to meet successfully any of the circumstances and weapons, conventional and unconventional, that international developments will impose.
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