Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty Interim Report 1, Evaluation of 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations (1997) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 41-46
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From page 41... ...
First, in an "external" evaluation, estimates can be compared with "comparison" values or values that serve as substitutes for true values. The Census Bureau designed its model and expended substantial resources for the purpose of enabling a fair comparison with 1990 decennial census estimates of school-age children in poverty in 1989.
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From page 42... ...
Some of this activity has been carried out by the Census Bureau for some models that predict change in poverty over time, for models that predict poverty rates, for models that constrain the coefficients of the predictor variables (on the logarithmic scale) to sum to 1, and for simple improvements to the decennial census poverty estimates (e.g., controlling them to the Census Bureau's state estimates of the number of schoolage children in poverty)
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From page 43... ...
Other kinds of models that could be investigated include models that borrow information from similar counties or close-by years and models that use information on state poverty levels as part of an integrated state-county modeling approach, rather than controlling the county estimates from the model to agree with the state estimates from a different model. Interaction terms for the independent variables and other indicator variables especially to account for geographic heterogeneity, growth in poverty, or other potential sources of bias could be fully examined.
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From page 44... ...
Although this anomaly is not entirely unexpected because of differences between reporting on income tax returns and reporting in the census, which is the basis of population estimates, it needs further study.1 The panel expects that after all the above analyses have been carried out, it will not only be clear that model-based county estimates are preferable to the decennial census estimates for current allocations, but it will also be relatively clear which particular model the Census Bureau' s current model or one of the alternatives suggested in this report is preferable for providing updated estimates of school-age children in poverty. We say relatively clear because there is iFor example, addresses on tax returns are not always the county of residence as defined for the census (e.g., the address may be that of the tax preparer)
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From page 45... ...
Such research is likely to be difficult to carry out, but it and other methods to improve timeliness should be identified along with their possible advantages and disadvantages as a first step in developing a research plan in this area. Still another area for investigation includes evaluation and refinement of the methods used to develop postcensal population estimates for children aged 5-17, which for 1994 represented relatively crude adjustments of estimates from the 1990 census.
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From page 46... ...
A major thrust of the next phase of the Census Bureau's work will be to determine whether updated estimates of poor school-age children at the level of school districts can be produced that are of adequate quality and preferable to decennial census estimates. Certainly, given the small CPS sample sizes for most school districts, the paucity of good administrative record data, the frequent revisions of school-district boundaries, the dynamics of school district-level poverty, and other factors, this work will be more difficult than county-level estimation, and evaluation will be critically important.
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