Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty Interim Report 1, Evaluation of 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations (1997) / Chapter Skim
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2. POVERTY ESTIMATES BASED ON CENSUS AND CPS DATA
2. POVERTY ESTIMATES BASED ON CENSUS AND CPS DATA
Pages 8-16
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From page 8... ...
Concerns about using decennial census income data that become outdated were reinforced by changes observed between the 1980 and 1990 censuses. Nationally, the number of poor children aged 5-17 rose by 5 percent over the 10 8
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In addition to not being current, decennial census data on income are themselves estimates, and as such they are subject to sampling error because the data are collected from only a sample of households. In the 1990 census, income data were collected on the "long form" that was mailed to about 1 out of every 6 households or about 15 million households in the United States.
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From page 10... ...
Indeed, the annual March Income Supplement to the CPS provides the official national measure of poverty.2 The March Income Supplement also serves as a basis for some federal fund allocations (Office of Management and Budget, 1993~. The CPS sample size is not large enough to produce detailed information on the changes that occur over time in the geographical distribution of the popula 2The Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP)
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a United States 24.5 1.8 Florida 52.3 12.8 California 44.2 9.4 New Jersey 35.8 15.3 Ohio 27.2 12.3 Pennsylvania 26.8 12.1 New York 26.1 8.7 North Carolina 23.0 11.4 Massachusetts 19.6 13.9 Michigan 19.0 10.6 minois 7.3 10. 1 Texas 4.1 8.0 a3.29 times the standard error gives the 90-percent confidence interval.
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. CThe Census Bureau regions are as follows: Northeast: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania; Northcentral: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas; South: Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas; West: Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, and Hawaii.
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From page 13... ...
However, as discussed in Section 3, a model-based approach that combines CPS estimates with administrative data in a statistical model can be used to yield estimates for counties that are more up to date than census estimates and have acceptable prediction errors. The Census Bureau's county-level model increases the CPS sample size for counties by combining 3 years of data.6 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CENSUS AND CPS DATA The census and the CPS differ in other ways besides sample size.
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From page 14... ...
(The CPS estimates are averages of income data for 1988,1989, and 1990; averaging is used to improve precision given the small CPS sample size in smaller areas; see Appendix Table B-5 for a similar comparison of poverty rates.) Overall, for the U.S.
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From page 15... ...
for all county groups except those with small sample sizes. This finding is not surprising given the large national difference in the two estimates; however, it does not support a conclusion that differences between the ratios of CPS estimates to census estimates are statistically significant across county groups.
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From page 16... ...
We briefly outline some possibly useful directions for research on timeliness in Section 6. iiThese estimates are for related children aged 6-17; estimates are not published for related children aged 5-17.
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