Statistics, Testing, and Defense Acquisition New Approaches and Methodological Improvements (1998) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 9-19
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From page 11... ...
A HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO IN THE TESTING AND EVALUATION OF A COMPLICATED SYSTEM Consider the following scenario. A new major has just rotated into a service test agency and has been assigned to oversee the operational test design and subsequent evaluation of the test results of QZ3, a major military system.
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The entire test and evaluation process must be carried out in less than 2 years, including 2-3 months to evaluate the test data and write the summary test report. The report will focus on several key results from various statistical significance (or hypothesis)
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From page 13... ...
so combination will require sophisticated statistical models that can accommodate the effects of different test circumstances. Furthermore, it is difficult to use information from developmental and operational testing and field performance for similar systems either to help design QZ3' s operational test or to supplement QZ3' s operational test evaluation because all the conditions under which the developmental data were taken, and the developmental and operational test results, are not archived.
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From page 14... ...
Indeed, the first priority of operational testing should be to conduct a comprehensive series of tests under realistic and relevant conditions and environments; statisticians are generally not qualified to implement such tests. Without a well-designed, realistic test, any post-test statistical analysis, whether using standard or sophisticated techniques, can easily lead to incorrect decisions.
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From page 15... ...
In addition, the Army has developed and implemented the Army Performance Improvement Criteria (APIC) based on the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award Criteria for Performance Excellence and the Presidential Quality Award Criteria (U.S.
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must by law determine the number of low-rate production items needed for test but this is done without clear, published guidelines. However, more sophisticated statistical methods can help to make the most effective use of whatever resources are available.
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a number of ways that statistical analysis and statistical methods can contribute to more cost-effective defense testing. As a result of this examination and related implications, the report also considers changes beyond the constraints of the existing acquisition process.
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The panel also examined what constraints exist in the entire acquisition process that limit the use of statistical methods or broad statistical principles in operational testing and in associated operations (including developmental testing, the development of requirements, and post-production testing)
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The report outlines the statistical methods that, both in the short- and longterm, will have a dramatic effect on the quality of defense systems acquired by DoD, and the costs of this acquisition. These include new approaches to software testing, new methods for test design for reliability, availability, and maintainability, methods for validation of modeling and simulation, and methods for obtaining more information from operational and other testing.
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