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APPENDIX B. POPULATION ESTIMATES
Pages 109-123

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From page 109... ... These estimates were developed within the framework of the Census Bureau's population estimates program (Long, 1993~.1 TOTAL POPULATION ESTIMATES Total population estimates are developed by the component method of demographic analysis. In general, the component method starts from an area's population in the previous census. Read the entire page →
From page 110... ... The county population totals are summed for each state to provide estimates of the total population of each state. All county and state population totals are then adjusted to sum to independently derived estimates of the total U.S. Read the entire page →
From page 111... ... ~.2 The estimated migration rate is then applied to the migration base, HHP65+~_~ + 1/2(NI~ ~ + NET MOVE_. 2Previously, the method simply used the change in Medicare enrollment to estimate the migration rate for the population aged 65 and over directly; the current method preserves the county variation in Medicare coverage. Read the entire page →
From page 112... ... In this approach, the beginning matrix of counts for each county by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin from the previous census is simultaneously adjusted to agree with the postcensal estimate of the total county population and the postcensal estimates for the applicable state by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin (Sink, 1996~.3 This procedure assumes that the age distribution of each county within a state changes in the same manner as that state's age distribution. Errors in the county estimates of an age group can arise from errors in this assumption, errors in the derivation of the state estimates of age groups, and errors in the derivation of the county estimates of total population. Read the entire page →
From page 113... ... To evaluate the county age estimates developed with the current raking-ratio procedure, the Census Bureau raked the 1980 census county age figures to the 1990 estimates of county total population and state population by age. The resulting 1990 county age estimates were compared with the 1990 census county age figures, which were assumed to be the true values in each case. Read the entire page →
From page 114... ... FINDINGS The overall mean absolute percent error in the 1990 county estimates of people aged 5-17 is 6.3 percent (shown in Table B-1~.5 By comparison, for 1990 county estimates of total population, prepared using the Census Bureau's current estimation procedure, it is 3.6 percent (Davis, 1994~. The mean absolute percent errors do not seem to be concentrated in any particular types of counties (Tables B-2 to Bob. Read the entire page →
From page 115... ... The categories for census division do not have an ordering, so a one-way analysis of variance was performed for that characteristic. The test results suggest the possibility of some bias associated with the estimates of children aged 5-17 for several categories of counties: county population size, percent black and other nonwhite population, percent Hispanic population, percent group quarters residents, metropolitan status, and census division. Read the entire page →
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From page 109...

... These estimates were developed within the framework of the Census Bureau's population estimates program (Long, 1993~.1 TOTAL POPULATION ESTIMATES Total population estimates are developed by the component method of demographic analysis. In general, the component method starts from an area's population in the previous census.

APPENDIX B. POPULATION ESTIMATES Pages 109-123

APPENDIX B. POPULATION ESTIMATES
Pages 109-123