Population Growth and Economic Development Policy Questions (1986) / Chapter Skim
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Introduction
Introduction
Pages 1-10
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From page 1... ...
However, there was a rise to an annual rate of 2.55 percent in 1965-1970 and a subsequent decline. This hill-shaped pattern of population growth rates is not so pronounced if China is excluded from the calculations: without China, annual grown rates for the less-developed counties were 2.1 percent in 1950-1955, 2.5 percent in 1965-1970, and 2.4
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Sustained population grown rates of this magnitude are unprecedented in history and reflect above all human success in reducing the burden of premature and avoidable death in developing countries. The growth rates are nearly twice those in industrialized areas of Europe during the nineteenth century.
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But it is clear that despite rapid population grown, developing countries have achieved unprecedented levels of income per capita, literacy, and life expectancy over the past 25 years (see Table 2~. Furthermore, as recognized in the earlier Academy report, there is no statistical association between national rates of population growth and grown rates of income per capita.
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From page 5... ...
[NTRODUC170N Ct ' o ~ C C Hi, .o Lo A to to Cal o .
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From page 6... ...
Ibe scientific literature contains few adequate studies of the effects of slower population grown in developed counties and fewer still on the effects in developing countries. Consequently, Were is much less certainty than we would like about Me specific quantifiable effects of different rates of population grown on human capital fonnation, on physical capital formation in liens, on technical progress and its diffusion, and on Me numerous other questions Cat are amused in We following chapters.
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From page 7... ...
A scientific assessment of Hat impact requires that one identify the major mechanisms by which population grown is hypothesized to affect economic development; assess the evidence for each hypothesis; and, finally, synthesize the net effect of He simultaneous operation of these mechanisms. A starting point in this assessment is to recognize several demographic changes that follow automatically from a permanent reduction in the number of children born per woman of childbearing age if Here is no change in mortality:
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From page 8... ...
Certain economic responses that may be observed during this transitional period will not continue once the new population grown pattern has been attained. But even though many economic effects occur only during this transitional period, they can result in higher or lower endowments of technology, capital, and natural resources for future generations.
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From page 9... ...
While we provide a general framework for studying the population-economic interrelationship in developing countries, it must be understood that conditions vary quite dramatically from place to place. Temperate Soup America is highly urbanized and has income levels that are high by historical standards.
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From page 10... ...
The population in the middle and older age groups is certain to grow even if fertility declines are rapid enough to offset the growing number of reproductive-aged persons and keep the child population from growing. Even though population grown rates are declining in many developing counties, they seem almost certain to remain high relative to growth rates in the developed countries during comparable periods of their economic history.
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